For all you math guys out there

**Bruno712** · 22nd April 2004, 02:45 PM

What are the chances of this occuring in a clean game of BJ?

Playing single hand BJ, (advertised at 6 decks I believe) playing approximately 100 hands while betting $25/$50 dollars, holding my own then maxing out to $400 and losing 9 straight hands. Not only losing, but losing to either a dealers BJ or a dealer 21. Then doing the same thing the next day and lsoing 6 to a BJ or 21. The next day 7 times (2 pushes) to a BJ or 21.

**cipher** · 22nd April 2004, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by Bruno712

What are the chances of this occuring in a clean game of BJ?

Playing single hand BJ, (advertised at 6 decks I believe) playing approximately 100 hands while betting $25/$50 dollars, holding my own then maxing out to $400 and losing 9 straight hands. Not only losing, but losing to either a dealers BJ or a dealer 21. Then doing the same thing the next day and lsoing 6 to a BJ or 21. The next day 7 times (2 pushes) to a BJ or 21.

Hi Bruno;

What Casino was this?

**ss911der** · 22nd April 2004, 03:40 PM

Sounds like I have been having similar experiences with the casino I have been using....

Check my topic.

**Clayman** · 22nd April 2004, 06:10 PM

Originally Posted by Bruno712

What are the chances of this occuring in a clean game of BJ?

Playing single hand BJ, (advertised at 6 decks I believe) playing approximately 100 hands while betting $25/$50 dollars, holding my own then maxing out to $400 and losing 9 straight hands. Not only losing, but losing to either a dealers BJ or a dealer 21. Then doing the same thing the next day and lsoing 6 to a BJ or 21. The next day 7 times (2 pushes) to a BJ or 21.

I never worry about how I lose just how many times I lose. A loss is a loss is a loss.

And I'm sure you know one can't tell you how bad your session was without knowing the overall results.

I think a dealer will get a BJ or 21 about 12% of the time, if that's any help.

I've never subscribed to the belief that there is a correlation between large bet size and W/L %, if that is your point, but I realize many do. I've often thought, if one believes that, then ... don't make any big bets. Problem solved.

**GrandMaster** · 23rd April 2004, 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by Bruno712

What are the chances of this occuring in a clean game of BJ?

Playing single hand BJ, (advertised at 6 decks I believe) playing approximately 100 hands while betting $25/$50 dollars, holding my own then maxing out to $400 and losing 9 straight hands. Not only losing, but losing to either a dealers BJ or a dealer 21. Then doing the same thing the next day and lsoing 6 to a BJ or 21. The next day 7 times (2 pushes) to a BJ or 21.

The probability of 7 dealer BJs or 21s in a row in 100 hands is somewhere about 1 in 20000 or 30000, so you have indeed experienced some rare events, so I don't blame you for being suspicious. On the other hand, if I were to write cheating casino software, I would do it in more subtle ways.

**Bruno712** · 23rd April 2004, 01:05 AM

According to my logs, the dealer may not have always won, but had 20, 21 or BJ 96% of the time when I maxed out a bet (1109 times in 1156 hands), with the 1156 maxed bets made out of over 35000 hands in total.

Here's another one for you guys, 17 straight losses in video poker betting $25/hand on single mode. That has never happened to me before. Nothing even close.

**GrandMaster** · 23rd April 2004, 02:09 AM

On average, the dealer should get about 20s, 21s and BJs about 350 times out of 1156. The probability of a dealer getting 20, 21 or BJ 1109 times or more out of 1156 hands is in the range of 1 in 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0 (that's 500 zeros). Are you sure you got this right? If so, save your logs, print them out, maybe even videotape yourself checking the logs on the computer to prove that you did not manipulate the files. This would be solid quantitative evidence of cheating.

In comparison, 17 losses in VP is quite normal. The exact probability depends on what kind of VP you played. For full pay JoB, the probability is about 1 in 30000, i.e., more likely than a royal flush.

**DealerBusts** · 23rd April 2004, 03:30 AM

Originally Posted by Bruno712

According to my logs, the dealer may not have always won, but had 20, 21 or BJ 96% of the time when I maxed out a bet (1109 times in 1156 hands), with the 1156 maxed bets made out of over 35000 hands in total.

Here's another one for you guys, 17 straight losses in video poker betting $25/hand on single mode. That has never happened to me before. Nothing even close.

Which casino did you play at?

**Clayman** · 23rd April 2004, 06:24 AM

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

Are you sure you got this right?

I read it as 1109 over ~35000 hands. Which isn't so bad. If it's over 1156 hands, as you say, they are cheating. No doubt at all. Do you know how many BJ's, 20's 21's over the 35000 hands? That is, I assume you got some on non-max-bets.

I gotta say that percentage of BJ's, 20, & 21's on maxed-out bets is certainly making me wonder, even if the overall percentage to total hands is OK. Certainly the most solid evidence I've ever heard of that bet size effects win rate. My "big bets" have never been max-out bets and, as I've always said, my win rate is OK over every bet size. I really don't know what to say about your experience. But get those logs because it kinda smells, even if over 35000 hands. Smells real bad. Any chance you know how many units you lost on your 1156 maxed-out bets? Sounds like it would likely be next to impossible.

The insidious part is that it would seem to me to be possible to have an overall win rate that would pass all statistical tests by simply forcing wins on big bets and making up for it with more wins on low bets. Which, in a nutshell, is why I record all my hands.

Are your stats from the logs themselves or your own recordings of results of hands? Assume the latter, get the former.

Maybe GM can figure out the chances of having 1109 BJ's, 20's or 21's on 1156 maxed-out bets in 35000 hands. Is that what you are saying? I'm a little blown away right now. By both what I think I'm reading and a few hours at the Elks club. See you tomorrow.

**Bruno712** · 23rd April 2004, 01:42 PM

I took my game logs directly from the casinos' records of each hand played, not my chicken scratch.

I did not do the computations personally. I sent them out to a former associate who has a program that analyzes statistical data for poker players but is easily apapted to other games of chance so I can't speak to the accuracy of these figures at this time. According to what he has told me, it will take at least two weeks for a full analysis due to the number of hands that he needs to scan and enter. That is why I refuse to divulge any casino names or make any premature statements. He has only done some preliminary analysis focusing mainly on the $100 and $400 bets and the double downs.

I will also say that I did not check to see if all the logs the casinos have reflect the complete number of my play sessions. When I went to check one of my sessions yesterday, I noticed that it was not there. I know that I must have played over 1000 hands during that session and won over $3000. I am currently out of town and working from my laptop so I cannot cross check this until I return on Monday.

The 17 straight losses were in a 9/6 Jacks or Better single hand game betting $25 per hand ($5/5 lines)