RTG Random Jackpots Anomaly

[chayton]

I'm still waiting for my RJ...can't hit one playing for real, for fun, tourney mode, nothing. Maybe I'm saving up all my luck for a really really BIG one.

[DiamondGeezer]

Dogboy can you please clear up a couple of questions about RTG RJ's?

In the AWP thread you said that players betting bigger amounts have a proportionally better chance of hitting an RJ. So if one player is betting $1 and another $10 does that mean the player betting $10 has for example 15 times more chances of winning rather then 10? If this is the case are you able to indicate how much better the chances are on higher bets?

Say you are playing a 95% game with a RJ. At what point is the RTP determined? Is it at reset which is $1000 I think or (more likely) is it at a mid point amount say $3500 on the meter?

If you are playing a 95% game and the RJ is up to $8000 say then would that be boosting your theoretical RTP in the same way a progressive video poker game operates? I am assuming that $3500 = 95% RTP for the sake of argument.

If there are say five 95% seperate RJ games should you always play the one with the highest RJ? Or do different games have different cycles? I guess it would make sense to have a mixture of harder and easier RJ's just like you get higher and lower variance slots. I have seen linked RJ's that operate accross 4 slots say but are there single slot RJ's too? Having a mixture of single slot RJ's and linked RJ's would provide different variances I think.

TIA.

[slotjunkie]

What does "she does not have to state with her claims" mean?

I'm aware that just about anything can be done with software. Most good operators replace the funds back into the jackpot anyway so what is the point of doing it in the first place?

The whole idea is ridiculous IMO.

I don't blame Silc or anyone else for not providing any evidence. - because there isn't any due to the fact that RANDOM jackpots go off RANDOMLY and who WINS it is influenced by what bet level they were using at the time. Nothing else. Not how long they have been playing, or what bonus they take, or the color of their eyes.

It is all about LUCK. Pure and simple.

You need to be at the right casino playing the right game at the right time.

Don't just take it from me...there has been plenty of evidence provided here at CM over the years, even from Bryan himself.

Evidence of anything other than what I have described is like a friendly Top Game CSR. - it doesn't exist.

"it makes you look stupid, but I don't believe that to be the case as you do make intelligent arguments on other occasions!" Figure it out!!!

[DogBoy001]

Dogboy can you please clear up a couple of questions about RTG RJ's?

In the AWP thread you said that players betting bigger amounts have a proportionally better chance of hitting an RJ. So if one player is betting $1 and another $10 does that mean the player betting $10 has for example 15 times more chances of winning rather then 10? If this is the case are you able to indicate how much better the chances are on higher bets?

Heya,

The chance is entirely proportional, so a $10 bet has 10 times better chance to trigger the random than a $1 bet.

Say you are playing a 95% game with a RJ. At what point is the RTP determined? Is it at reset which is $1000 I think or (more likely) is it at a mid point amount say $3500 on the meter?

RTP is determined purely from the average trigger value, which is simply:

Reset value + increment (contribution to the jackpot per spin) * 1/trigger probability

This is based on a $1 bet, and any bet above or below that has a proportionately higher or lower chance to trigger.
i.e.: A 1c bet has 1/100 the trigger chance and a $10 bet has 10* the trigger chance.

So if, (numbers purely for example), a jackpot resets to $1,000, and has an increment of 0.5% per spin, with a 1 in 300,000 trigger chance (on a $1 bet), the average trigger value will be: $1,000 + 0.5% * 300,000 = $2,500 average trigger value

RTP is therefore the prize/probability of triggering that prize.
In this example: 2,500/300,000 = 0.83333%

The RTP for this a jackpot is effectively the same as receiving a scatter prize, in this case of of 2,500 (since this would be multiplied by total bet).

If you are playing a 95% game and the RJ is up to $8000 say then would that be boosting your theoretical RTP in the same way a progressive video poker game operates? I am assuming that $3500 = 95% RTP for the sake of argument.

Effectively that is true.

Unlike other prizes with a constant value, once a random moves beyond the average trigger value the reality is that RTP is effectively improved during play at such time.

Since the calculation of RTP would be based on (again using above example numbers only), a 2,500 prize, if a jackpot had grown to 8,000 and still had the same 300,000 trigger rate, this would add 1.83333% to the effective RTP (since total jackpot RTP would now be 8000/300,000).

If there are say five 95% seperate RJ games should you always play the one with the highest RJ? Or do different games have different cycles? I guess it would make sense to have a mixture of harder and easier RJ's just like you get higher and lower variance slots. I have seen linked RJ's that operate accross 4 slots say but are there single slot RJ's too? Having a mixture of single slot RJ's and linked RJ's would provide different variances I think.

TIA.

It can be a little hard to determine the best possible play, because games that have the newer Minor/Major versus those that have the single jackpot do have different increment and trigger probability values (which is necessary when moving from 1 jackpot to 2, in order not to blow out RTP).

Some games or sets of games may also have a different average trigger value, yet same RTP.
For example, using above number as a base:
If a game has a 1 in 600,000 trigger rate (instead of 1 in 300,000), and increment is shifted from 0.5% per spin to 0.6667% per spin, the RTP is still 0.833333%, but the average value of the trigger would now be $5,000.

It's best to use the guide of familiarity with the previous levels that a random has gone off at.
So if you know that a jackpot has grown beyond a point that seems usual for that game, it's likely above it's average trigger value (which it will be some of the time)

In fact, this would work out to 36.79% of the time, this being:
((1-(1/average spins to trigger))^average spins to trigger) in the above example
e.g.: ((1-(1/300,000))^300,000) = (0.99996667)^300,000 = 36.79%
The same is true no matter what the chance to trigger is, so a 1 in 600,000 would also see it go above average trigger value 36.79% of the time.

Woooof

[DiamondGeezer]

Superb post and it throws up many interesting points.

What on earth is the point of playing an RJ machine if you are on a low max cashout? You are effectively lowering your RTP by a substantial amount, not to mention the hideous feeling of leaving say $2k in winnings behind. It's almost as if players are hoping they won't win.

Players on a budget should take note of the different trigger levels on offer ie it's better to play a more frequent trigger RJ if on a smaller budget just because of the variance rather than RTP.

[DogBoy001]

Players on a budget should take note of the different trigger levels on offer ie it's better to play a more frequent trigger RJ if on a smaller budget just because of the variance rather than RTP.

The Minor/Major 2 jackpot system certainly sees the Minor jackpots go off with far more frequency than the single Random jackpot system (and conversely the Major will go off less frequently).

The Minors have a much smaller reset (USD$250 for USD play) and in most instances a trigger rate some 5 times the previous trigger probability of the single jackpot games.

Woooof

[all4greed]

DogBoy001, great all around info

Why are the RJ's active in free mode? I've hit a lot of them, sometimes just a few minutes apart. But I'm thinking someone new to the casino or perhaps OLG in general might think they happen all the time, switch to real mode, and reality (usually) sets in.

So what's the point of having them?

[DogBoy001]

Why are the RJ's active in free mode? I've hit a lot of them, sometimes just a few minutes apart. But I'm thinking someone new to the casino or perhaps OLG in general might think they happen all the time, switch to real mode, and reality (usually) sets in.

So what's the point of having them?

I'm gathering that in free mode your average bets were substantial (e.g.: $125 bets in free play)?

The reason for having them is twofold:
1) To provide effectively the same play as in real mode and
2) To avoid having to produce 2 distinct builds of the same game

Woooof

[Edward D. Wood]

I'm still waiting for my RJ...can't hit one playing for real, for fun, tourney mode, nothing. Maybe I'm saving up all my luck for a really really BIG one.

the same here - been playing those stupid slots for years now....low and highrolling....as long as i stay out of the rj-winners. i call this whole rj-thing rigged.
sure, i made some very good sessions, but i never hit a rj.