Hi there 4oak,
I very much appreciated your post. It was thoughtful and very well put together. You shed some light on what I've been thinking and was just talking to someone about yesterday.
My judgement may be a little bit influenced by most recent MG 6 hour Aces and Faces marathon session (probably around 2400 hands +/-) that included exactly zero 4oak's. I know that with true randomness, anything is possible in the short run, but the odds are stacked against what I just finished up. I have no idea as to how to run the math, but again I know that this doesn't happen very often.
I also would consider myself at least pretty close to an expert video poker player, and am in fact significantly up over my 10+ years of playing online.
I've never done the research that you have and probably couldn't explain my understanding of the mathematics/probabilities involved nearly as well as you have, but I share your thoughts and recent experience. I also am in no way a conspiracy theorist and in fact have always subscribed to the camp that believes that as long as I stick to accredited, reputable casinos, the house edge is all that I'm up against but I've also always believed that I'm dealing with a random shuffle. I've always suspected that the games just play different online, but could never put my finger on it or explain it. Your theory has put into words what I've thought for many years.
Based on your experience, do you think that this theory runs true to all platforms? If not, what software provider do you spend most of your time playing?
If you are in fact correct, I am now also highly suspect of the indian casinos that are all over my state of Oklahoma. I don't remember what the rtp % rules are that apply to them, but I do remember the numbers being ridiculous. I am really curious now as to how the VP games that are in these casinos work as well. The paytables are stupid low, and I've always just thought that that is the only difference.
Thanks again!
Kevin




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