What is the likelihood of this?

[winnington]

Gave the 100% match bonus at bet365 a shot. Played all hands by the book... the result was 5 hands won, 4 push, and 21 losses. Played one $15 hand, all the rest were $5-$10 hands until I was under $10.

Is this within normal variance? Just curious, as I've seen other people here question whether bet365 is fair.









edit: how do I make these images show up? I took screenshots of my bet and hand history.

[Pulver]

Unlucky, yes, uncommon, no. My worst result in blackjack is 20 hands lost in a row. So these things happen from time to time, thats why it is called gambling. Next time maybe you win 20 and loose 5..

[big_mac]

The short answer is that is far too small a sample to be sure of anything.

I tried an online probability calculator, and that said about 0.1% (1 in 1,000) which seems plausible.

[NASHVEGAS]

BJ I assume, Can answer but 30 hands will mean nothing and the question can be calculated several different ways based on how worded iirc.

Not trying to be a smart ass, would help if you could gather more data but I understand if you may not want to.

BJ Basic Expectation
Win=~48%
Loss=~43%
Tie=~9%

Sorry not answering what I believe you want to know but maybe AKA, or some others will then I assume repeat you need more data. 33 units lost in 100 hands has approx. 1/400 prob. Will calculate though as strictly from memory!!

[DaveG39]

BJ I assume, Can answer but 30 hands will mean nothing and the question can be calculated several different ways based on how worded iirc.

Not trying to be a smart ass, would help if you could gather more data but I understand if you may not want to.

BJ Basic Expectation
Win=~48%
Loss=~43%
Tie=~9%

Sorry not answering what I believe you want to know but maybe AKA, or some others will then I assume repeat you need more data. IIRC, 33 units lost in 100 hands has approx. 1/400 prob. Will calculate though as strictly from memory!!

Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 26 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate

[winnington]

Yeah, it's a rather small sample. Tried to post more info, except my screenshots were blocked for some reason. The only reason I bothered posting is that I've seen a few other people question the variance at this particular casino. Don't want to seem like a sore loser, I'm just curious.

btw, Pulver, the chances of losing 20 hands straight in bj is pretty close to 1 in 10 million (that's an easy calc). Unless you've played millions of hands of bj, I'd definitely be questioning the fairness of whatever casino that happened at... assuming it's online.

[winnington]

Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 31 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate

Thanks Dave. Small sample aside, given other users feedback with similar experiences there, I won't be depositing there again.

[NASHVEGAS]

Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 31 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate

Should have removed after I calculated and of course rule assumptions were made. Could have been Bakky and not BJ.......30 hands IIRC, LOL!!

[winnington]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention it was BJ.

[Pulver]

Sorry for getting my facts wrong in my previous post. I checked through some old posts I have at a different gambling forum and found out that I lost 12 hands, had 1 push and then lost another 6.

Anyways, if you play enough spins on the roulette, or hands at the blackjack table, strange things will hapen that makes you ponder. But I have also been very lucky sometimes. These things can go both ways.