Betfair 75% chance of winning 25% chance of losing! need your help.

**NewOrleans** · 30th October 2008, 04:20 PM

I was checking out all the different things Betfair.com offered and I was astonished of my findings for the exchange games,this only applies to texas hold'em but basically one option is to bet on one of the four hands to win or lose (backing,laying) I found it odd that it almost pays the same for betting on a single hand to win as it does to lose,the backing option(betting on a hand to win) would only give you a 25% chance while the lose would give you 75%,but yet it pays almost the same...The total win of betting on a single hand to lose is 3-1 payout,in a casino this would be fixed so you would only get 1/4 payout at the most,of course there is a small 5% commission I believe which lowers your payout a bit but still you have more chances of winning than losing,and a PLAYER edge! Don't take my word for it checkout the exchange games section for yourselves.

I am still a bit skeptical as I think there is a catch but if you could check it for me and confirm that I was right or wrong I would appreciate it.
This means you could make a decent living with this,your edge is higher by 5-20x than an expert card counter and even they make a decent living.
If I am correct that is,and I forgot to mention another 0.5% commission for laying(placing a bet for a hand to lose) I need your help,please check the betfair exchange games section and reply.

**Jufo** · 30th October 2008, 04:24 PM

If you bet 100 on a single hand to win and it does, you get back 400 minus commission. If you bet 100 on a single hand to lose, you will win 100 if the hand does lose, but you will lose 300 if the hand happens to win. There is no player edge.

Try it: Lay 100 on any hand to lose and if it wins you will lose 300.

UPDATE: The loss is 300, not 400