question regarding Video Poker Jack Or Better (9/6)

[oyw7862]

Hi All:
I am currently playing VP JoB.
As I am lazy so and not good at perfect play(80% correct), but I do want to hit a RF. It has been 3 months I did not hit one(daily 2k+ hands) on this game(JOB).

I have been sitting for about 20 hours and watching(-700$ now). Not even one close to hit.

So I guess that maybe using auto-play and MG stradgy will make game less hit.

can some one tell me that should I swith to the manual play and reference the stradgy from wizard of odds?

thanks

attached my play sessions till now, I have prepared 3 RF as bankroll.

[GrandMaster]

You expect to get one RF in about 40000 hands on average. You have nothing to complain about yet.

[oyw7862]

"Yet"
thanks

[oyw7862]

27000 hands and down 1000$ @1.25 per hand

Not so good looks like.

So Thanks grand master, how big % can I get for 1 RF in 40K hands ?

is it bigger than 50%?

[niklas]

27000 hands and down 1000$ @1.25 per hand

Not so good looks like.

So Thanks grand master, how big % can I get for 1 RF in 40K hands ?

is it bigger than 50%?

To determine this, we take the chance of NOT hitting an RF, i.e. 39,999 / 40,000, and raise to the power of 40,000:

(39 999 / 40 000)^40 000 = 0.367874843

The chance of hitting an RF in 40k hands is then 1 - 0.367874843 or approximately 63.2%.

With the same method we find that you already had a ~53% chance of hitting one within your 27k hands. Since the gambler's fallacy isn't true, this means that you now only have a ~31.5% chance of hitting it within the 13k hands you have left before having played a total of 40k.

(The real chance is actually 0.00002476, or 1 in ~40388, but we'll keep it simple. We'll also ignore that no one will play the true optimal strategy using a strategy table, as those are always more or less simplified.)

[james01]

But if you're playing only to get a royal flush, as opposed to playing standard strategy (which you would use in order to win as frequently as possible), you might raise your chances of getting that royal flush, but lose more money at the same time.

[GaryWatson]

I find it hard to imagine going for the odds in a video poker game. The 40,000/1 is not a true reflection of card odds. The game is more of a slots style game. Maybe that is why it is set at 40,000/1, but chasing the r/f for a small % seems a bad strategy right away.

[niklas]

But if you're playing only to get a royal flush, as opposed to playing standard strategy (which you would use in order to win as frequently as possible), you might raise your chances of getting that royal flush, but lose more money at the same time.

Certainly true. I've also seen strategies to lower variance at the cost of a slightly higher house edge. I imagine going against optimal strategy to raise your chance of an RF will raise the house edge considerably.

Edit: Even if you don't go to the extremes of throwing away a 3OAK to keep one ace.

[james01]

Like I said, you'd lose more money, but if all you care about is hitting that royal flush, you should be able to increase the odds by playing every hand to win the royal flush rather than for the best chance of winning anything.

You'd be dumping regular flushes and straights and every pair/3-of-a-kind, so you'd lose almost every hand.

Terrible strategy, but might get you the royal flush.

[GaryWatson]

I hit one playing 100 handed at min stakes. Not really worth it but it was nice all the same