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Thread: Am I crazy????

  1. #1
    I Never Win's Avatar
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    Angry Am I crazy????

    Since I live in the USA our online options are limited to precious few when it comes to gambling. And as a resident of Illinois, I have even fewer options. And of those few options 99% run RTG software.

    In the past year I have been keeping an unscientific log of my play with BoDog and noticed some very alarming trends. During 2007 I played 17,753 hands of blackjack.

    Of those I won 48.6% and had 354 blackjacks to Bodog's 311 blackjacks. My average wager was $14.60. On the surface it seems that BoDog runs a fair and tight ship.

    But upon closer inspection the numbers seem to show an overwhelming advantage to the house. For example, when I increased my wager by at least 15% over the previous hand my winning dropped significantly to 35%. If I increased it by 25% it is an unsightly 17%. In other words, Bodog seems to get hot at just the right time almost everytime.

    Now we move on to blackjacks. Bodog claims to run an honest game because I have more blackjacks than them 354-311. But my average wager on those blackjacks was $6.25. my average wager on a Bodog blackjack $23.40. Translation, Bodog strikes at just the right time on both sides of the fence.

    Then there are those runs where I would lose 15, 16, 17 hands in-a-row where the dealer had 20 or higher on 80% of the hands. This has happened at least a dozen times this year if not more. My longest streak was 12 hands once, 10 hands twice. Get my point.

    And finally, the 8 card 21 they threw at me for $500. I had a twenty of course.

    I play blackjack to the optimal strategy so bizarre play is not behind these anomolies. I think greed is.

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    Your not crazy.
    Beware... Killer Teddy in the house...

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    I Never Win's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=I Never Win;213369]Since I live in the USA our online options are limited to precious few when it comes to gambling. And as a resident of Illinois, I have even fewer options. And of those few options 99% run RTG software.

    In the past year I have been keeping an unscientific log of my play with BoDog and noticed some very alarming trends. During 2007 I played 17,753 hands of blackjack.

    Of those I won 48.6% and had 354 blackjacks to Bodog's 311 blackjacks. My average wager was $14.60. On the surface it seems that BoDog runs a fair and tight ship.

    But upon closer inspection the numbers seem to show an overwhelming advantage to the house. For example, when I increased my wager by at least 15% over the previous hand my winning dropped significantly to 35%. If I increased it by 25% it is an unsightly 17%. In other words, Bodog seems to get hot at just the right time almost everytime.

    Now we move on to blackjacks. Bodog claims to run an honest game because I have more blackjacks than them 354-311. But my average wager on those blackjacks was $6.25. my average wager on a Bodog blackjack $23.40. Translation, Bodog strikes at just the right time on both sides of the fence.

    Then there are those runs where I would lose 15, 16, 17 hands in-a-row where the dealer had 20 or higher on 80% of the hands. This has happened at least a dozen times this year if not more. My longest streak was 12 hands once, 10 hands twice. Get my point.

    And finally, the 8 card 21 they threw at me for $500. I had a twenty of course.

    I play blackjack to the optimal strategy so bizarre play is not behind these anomolies. I think greed is.[/Never play leapfrog with a unicorn]

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    GaryWatson is offline Dormant account
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    I think visually it is impossible to spot a discepancy in blackjack. Ive sat on so many real tables to know its just Snowmans luck. I played a little on bodog last week. First half a dozen hands, the dealer was on one of those annoying runs against me. It does feel rigged, but even playing live you get the same gut feelings. I highly doubt the live game is rigged but when Im on an unlucky run it feels that way. Im not going to tell you these games online are safe. The truth is I dont know. Sites like AP/UB, avoid like the plague, but I feel Bodog seem far more reputable

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    I Never Win's Avatar
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    I have also played tens of thousands of blackjack hands in real casinos and yes, that excruciating cold streak or untimely blackjack has sunk us all. But Bododg accuracy is noth short of astounding. the numbers prove it

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    Quote Originally Posted by I Never Win View Post
    And finally, the 8 card 21 they threw at me for $500. I had a twenty of course.

    I play blackjack to the optimal strategy so bizarre play is not behind these anomolies. I think greed is.
    The Wizard of Odds, Michael Shackleford, gives the odds of that happening like 1 in 79,000......

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    GaryWatson is offline Dormant account
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    I cant argue too strongly against blackjack games being rigged. Apparently if you play BJ at Absolute poker, you will win at the end of the month, just before affiliate payments are calculated for the month. Its very simple, miss out the first 3 weeks of play, play in the last week & you will win. At least thats how the stats show when calculating affiliate payments. Carbon Poker are known to do similar. I dont know many people who consistently win at blackjack, online it is likely to be less but they do appear at the end of the month on your stats.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GaryWatson View Post
    I cant argue too strongly against blackjack games being rigged. Apparently if you play BJ at Absolute poker, you will win at the end of the month, just before affiliate payments are calculated for the month. Its very simple, miss out the first 3 weeks of play, play in the last week & you will win. At least thats how the stats show when calculating affiliate payments. Carbon Poker are known to do similar. I dont know many people who consistently win at blackjack, online it is likely to be less but they do appear at the end of the month on your stats.
    That makes a lot of sense Gary, I believe I tend to notice the same pattern playing Video Poker and Slots at RTG & MG towards the end of the month...

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    All I know is last time I wagered at BJ on MG, i played 50 hands before going broke.

    I won 14 hands, and 6 were ties, 1 BJ where dealer had 5 BJ. I has 21 once, dealer had +5. Most cards I got was, as usual 3+10 or 10+3 so it's statistically natural to bust.

    As usual, unlucky streak... My ass!

    Also, looking in the log, I find theese fascinating during gameplay, hands in dealt order:

    Me: 10+8
    Dealer: 9+10

    Me: 10+8
    Dealer: 8 + Ace

    Me: 10+8
    Dealer: 10+10

    Me: 8+10
    Dealer: 9+10

    Me: 4+10+10 (bust)

    Me: 10+4+10 (bust)

    Me: 9+6+3
    Dealer: 10+6+5 (21)

    Me: 5+10+8 (bust)

    Me: 6+2+9
    Dealer: 10+10

    Me: 5+6 (double) +4
    Dealer: 9+7+10 (bust)

    Naturally a dealer streak on 9 is very expensive, and unlucky! Iv'e yet to win 9 times in a row. Not to say +10.

    Have a great BJ experience in online casinoes!

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    I am Not Crazy just Stupid

    Why do I keep playing this Bullshit game. I am currently in a streak of 18 losses in 20 hands and lost 12 in-a-row at one point. Way to go BoDog. You are reall taking a bite out of me.

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