Payout percentage in MG in the long run...

[kimss]

It happends to be I have wasted alot of time with "practise-play" the last month(s), and I have buildt a huge dataset with playcheck data for the entire period. I have passed 239765 spins as we speak, most on maximum wager. So since funmode is identical with real mode, I thought I'd poll the payout percentage for you all. I will post the results when there are some votes for what you think,

[lojo]

I'm guessing in the 80's

Just a thought... if they were all max lines, could that be multiplied? i.e. 239765*number of lines = 3,596,475 if all were 15 line slots this is a large sample imo

[kimss]

Oh yes, it's a large sample - and it SHOULD satisfy the hardest people in here screaming for lucky streaks and rules of large numbers and chaos theory, It's a few 100 hours atleast of gameplay here, so yes - it has eaten some work time for sure, hehe.

But no use in sticking with the data myself - after all it's no secret data, atleast I never saw an EULA or other small print stating that you are never to share playcheck data with other people. It will be fun to see what the poll will show in some days.

At the moment the machine is spinning in auto-play for full machinery, Collecting data, collecting data... Ahhh... Sweet... If I could only gain what I have lost in this experiment I would at the moment be €-1,817,071.96 richer... The sweet smell of money you could have lost!

[saladfingers]

I've finally given up on MG. Too much money lost, too many unforgiving losing sprees. I've had some good, exciting wins there too, but they still don't compensate for the amount I've lost. The biggest problem is that losing runs like that are absolutely no fun, so the whole process isn't as addictive as the business model needs it to be. So I've found giving up on them and closing my accounts pretty easy. I've also given up on Inetbet for the same reason.

3dice on the other hand - fun slots (though not enough of them), good payouts so far, excellent customer service... The test will be the payout percentage. Of course I don't expect to win in the long run, but if I get entertaining game play, some good wins and the chance of some big wins, I'll be a customer for ages. Long, barren tedious losing runs and I'm off...

[kimss]

I've finally given up on MG.

Watching +250.000 spins you see alot, and I have seen some "strange" patterns, however it seems they shift after you get a 5 symbol win. A slot can be "hot" for a week, and over night it's another slot which is hot and the one which were hot is suddenly ice cold - it seems the rabbit hold is endless...

So my experience with this experiment is bye bye online gaming aswell, I will not put money more in theese casinoes! You _DO_ win when you need to it seems, however nobody in here believes this. Most likely there will be a stat fanatic in here which will have a field day diving into the data.

Having lost, surely, +50.000 in cold cash in this game I am not amused either! If I were you I'd probably stay away from 3dice aswell, since I have a feeling the "online community" shares their flaws. (Again, non existing flaws).

And for all of those winning shots, there are a HUGE difference in wagering 0.09-0.9 bets and 9-250 bets! Surealy this has to do with the fact that you cant win anything on low wagering...

Again - my personal opinions, hit me!

[lojo]

thwackkkk

[aka23]

It happends to be I have wasted alot of time with "practise-play" the last month(s), and I have buildt a huge dataset with playcheck data for the entire period. I have passed 239765 spins as we speak, most on maximum wager. So since funmode is identical with real mode, I thought I'd poll the payout percentage for you all. I will post the results when there are some votes for what you think,

I think the payout would be ~88.03% . Seriously, 1 SD in % return over 250,000 spins should be Standard Deviation per spin / 5. With an SD per spin of 15 (may be reasonable for high variance slots) and a fixed bet size, the expected 2 SD range is 89-101%. Zoozie's simulator could probably give more precise information.

[Zoozie]

Seriously, 1 SD in % return over 250,000 spins should be Standard Deviation per spin / 5. With an SD per spin of 15 (may be reasonable for high variance slots) and a fixed bet size, the expected 2 SD range is 89-101%. Zoozie's simulator could probably give more precise information.

This is damn accurate!
I did 1000 simulations of:
250000 spins on thunderstruck (freespins not counting as these 250000)

Of these only 4 had payout a little over 100%. Highest was 1.0074301819113503
The lowest payout was 0.9135081857338577
But the avg payout% was 0.956 which a little higher than was expected, so it was a slightly 'lucky' simulation.

The data with the payout from the 1000 simulations is included. And here are two histograms of the results with low and high interval resolution.

[kimss]

Great to see some interest in this, I should also add (in case this was misunderstood), my gameplay is in all the slots. So +250.000 spins all over the place in total. So some slots will have a high payout and some will have a lower. I'll prepare the results and also post the data tomorrow.

Always nice to have something to look forward to,

[aka23]

This is damn accurate!
I did 1000 simulations of:
250000 spins on thunderstruck (freespins not counting as these 250000)

Of these only 4 had payout a little over 100%. Highest was 1.0074301819113503
The lowest payout was 0.9135081857338577
But the avg payout% was 0.956 which a little higher than was expected, so it was a slightly 'lucky' simulation.

The data with the payout from the 1000 simulations is included. And here are two histograms of the results with low and high interval resolution.

Based on the simulation data, the SD per spin was about half of my guess. This is surprising to me since Wizard of Odds listed a greater degree of variance than this in a Reno 3-reel slot, as described at http://wizardofodds.com/slots/slotapx1.html . It also seems that 250,000 spins is not enough to produce a good gaussian distribution, as the curve is still skewed a bit on the higher side due to some sims hitting rare high payouts.

Based on this data, I expect you'd need ~2 million spins, to have a 95% chance of being +/- 1% of expected payout.