Lessons learned from the Cipher thread

**vinylweatherman** · 17th April 2007, 09:19 AM

I once ran an autoplay experiment on an MG casino covering 100,000 hands of Blackjack, flat betting �1 per hand. The end result was a �800 PROFIT!
I considered this to be an abnormally long uptrend, even though it had many ups and downs during the run.

**frafi** · 17th April 2007, 11:04 AM

Could you please tell me the maximum up and the maximum down swing in the whole run?

**Random#rs** · 17th April 2007, 07:47 PM

Originally Posted by vinylweatherman

I once ran an autoplay experiment on an MG casino covering 100,000 hands of Blackjack, flat betting �1 per hand. The end result was a �800 PROFIT!
I considered this to be an abnormally long uptrend, even though it had many ups and downs during the run.

100,000 hands !!! whoa!! That's a lot of blackjack. I'm surprised the Casino didn't bump you off !! lol . Yea its interesting. You experienced a high order trend. If it was fun money it might have been biased. If it was real then it was a high order trend. There are short, medium, long, very long, and extremely long trend cycles interwoven together, like harmonics that combine to form still a larger harmonic wave. It could easily have been the other direction. If you play enough with a fixed bet and perfect strategy, I suppose you might catch a high order trend wave like that. I'd think somewhere in the next 100,000 hands you would hit a significantly larger negative figure. Unless the game was biased.

Originally Posted by frafi

Could you please tell me the maximum up and the maximum down swing in the whole run?

Good question. Was it a fixed Bankroll or did you have to add to it to keep it going ??

**lojo** · 18th April 2007, 12:49 AM

Originally Posted by Random#rs

...There are short, medium, long, very long, and extremely long trend cycles interwoven together, like harmonics that combine to form still a larger harmonic wave. It could easily have been the other direction...
...

I like your conceptualization here.
I've looked at it a bit more simple-mindedly

Imagine, in slots, a probablilty model of free spins every 135 spins on average.

It could look like this (if formatting stays put) |-----| equals 135 spins

|--------------------|
. |----------------------|
. |---------------------|
|----------------||-----------------| |----------------------|

The 'hit' can occur anywhere within each |--136---|, several times, or not at all for several 'sets'.

They can overlap, they can be spaced several units apart, etc.

I like your analogy better, it is much more elegant.

But sadly, shy of quantum imaginings, there is no way to consistently predict a future trend based on past trends or current conditions. Even with the quantum argument, the act of observing to interact with the trend will change the trend itself.

We're fexed in reliably predicting a microcosmic event (my 'spin' or your 'hand') in the mix of all the hands and spins "randomly" occuring in the macrocosm.

Having less than an eighth grade education and a sometimes insatiable appetite for numbers, I have independently arrived at the golden ratio, Fibonacci sequences, and crudely created fractal like things. I don't believe the answer lies in any of this, and certainly not in trend analysis. (unless you can parlay the peaks and hedge against the booboos somehow

A card counter can gain an edge, and win over time (but who can count more than a five deck shoe? An Autist or someone with williams syndrome maybe?)
A slots player can manage their bets and get lucky enough to win in the long run if they quit before the longrun runs

assuming a penny is equal to a dollar to the program.
A craps player can control the dice, etc.

I'll go out on a limb here and suggest that if you are able to, consistently, over time, beat the EV in a game like blackjack without counting cards or using bonuses (and only you know for sure) then there is something else going on here. A knack, if you will, a prescience that may or may not be observable, repeatable, and verifyable.

And certainly I don't see you trying to convince anyone of a system that can be transfered person to person as a stepping stone to selling that system. The moral of this thread is that systems can only bite you in the bum in the long run.

But I'm willing to explore unconventional avenues to beat the house edge, but we might want to do it in wildcards or another thread altogther

Best of luck

**Random#rs** · 18th April 2007, 05:12 AM

Originally Posted by lojo

And certainly I don't see you trying to convince anyone of a system that can be transfered person to person as a stepping stone to selling that system. The moral of this thread is that systems can only bite you in the bum in the long run.

But I'm willing to explore unconventional avenues to beat the house edge, but we might want to do it in wildcards or another thread altogther

Your right about this; this is not the right thread. I'll pick it up in Wild Cards when I get back to the computer later. Maybe under a title like 'Random number Theory' or 'Quantum Mechanics and Blackjack' ... Lol!