Lessons learned from the Cipher thread

[lojo]

PNRG stands for pseudo-random number generator. I listed this phrase in the first sentence of my post and assumed you'd get the connection between the acronym. A RNG requires a natural event assumed to be random. A PRNG is an algorithmic computation, such as the type used in online gambling software.


Bigger than pi? Pi is 3.14... . Or do you mean longer than pi... an irrational number with an infinite decimal expansion? That's not accurate either. A PRNG repeats itself after finishing a cycle. A good PRNG has an extremely long cycle that might repeat itself after 1.84 x 10^19 values. A basic PRNG has a shorter cycle and might repeat itself after 65536 values.

Thanks for pointing that out, i was on a tear

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.11/persinger.html

Funny how laurentian has dropped persinger pages tonight, as well as wiki... hmmm

So, back to the challenge, it would seem my canadian team has gone underground. But I can do it on my own. I will challenge any random number generator and predict a loss!!!

C'mon. I never wore a koren helmet, I never predicted the superbowl (And I'm not messing with you, I'm making a point)

random number generators are like the man who fell to earth or the boy who ate his dog. unless you are marylinmanson, and claim to to know that god is a number that no-one can count to, then it is ALL bull sh*t.
Otherwise, lets get to crackin

I don't want any data challenges (overwhelm the server)
But i do hereby solemny assert that I can predict a RNG.

But of course i will have to have grapes popped into my mouth and my toes nibbled on by fish.

Didn't mean to doubt your math, mine is just maybe different. And why bother, its just money.

[GrandMaster]

I will come up with a suitable challenge for those who claim to be able to predict random number.

[gerilege]

First we have to differentiate between the pure RNG and the algorithm. The RNG produces values in an interval. The algorithm uses this source value somehow to produce a final value. I will use "RNG" to denote the source, and "algorithm" to denote the code snippet which uses the result of the "RNG". The final requirement is:
The final value (outcome produced by the algorithm) shall be fair (evenly distributed) and independent (previous outcome does not influence future outcome).

The fact is known since J. Neumann; nevertheless I think it's still quite amazing to realize for the first time that the RNG need not to be necessarily fair so that the algorithm produce fair and independent final results. The stronger requirement is that the RNG should be independent. It's not very complicated to construct an evenly-distributed and independent outcome using results from an unfair, but independent RNG as a source, assuming we know exactly how the RNG is biased. But if the RNG is not independent, then we can't completely fix it with an algorithm.

Unfortunately Pseudo-RNGs might be fair, but not independent (as it is deterministically calculated with a computer) unless the RNG source includes some physical random elements (radioactive isotopes, cursor movements, timing of clicks, etc.). So in theory it is impossible to prove that the result of an algorithm is independent (although it might be evenly-distributed) unless you can prove that the RNG is independent. What we can do is to test the RNG/algorithm, and examine whether it behaves the same way as real random sequences. I think if an RNG passes these tests, it would be very hard to find a short-term pattern in it, even there's an extremely long cycle in the RNG. If the RNG is "good", and the cycle is big enough, than to decrypt this cycle you would need a series of very good (later proven) hypothesizes (or insider facts) regarding the bias in the RNG and/or algorithm. It is not something what a couple of NASA/CIA mathematicians could not do, but it would be almost impossible with a PC.

The human brain is extremely good in pattern-matching. So good, that a human being often sees patterns where there's no pattern at all. The nature and the world around us are full of natural, but random patterns, take fractals for example. Furthermore these patterns are more likely and frequent than most people would think. Let's take the birthday problem for example: how many people do you think it takes to make it more likely that two people have their birthday on the same day than not? Only 23.

But I know how it feels when you run into one of those winning/losing “patterns”.

[pangloss]

[QUOTE=kengam;144579]
The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. /QUOTE]



Yes and I couldn't agree more. It is a bit rich for those who created, participated and are responsible for the enduring nature of that reprehensible thread to now get on the "woe is Cipher" band wagon.

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list.


...

[Simmo!]

Although I agree that that thread will undoubtedly affect people, it's true to say that any "positive" gambling thread could be construed as incitement to over-stretch oneself. And for every positive thread there's a negative thread. It's a gambling forum - it's natural that people would want to share their good experiences as much as they do their bad and there is also some very good advice round here on controlling the gambling habit if people choose to take notice. That thread has very little to do with fraud or even one's opinions on it to be honest.

[dominique]

[QUOTE=pangloss;144764]

The winning screenshots thread is most likely at least partially responsible for irresponsible gambling and ruining the financial livelihoods of many who have visited here. /QUOTE]



Yes and I couldn't agree more. It is a bit rich for those who created, participated and are responsible for the enduring nature of that reprehensible thread to now get on the "woe is Cipher" band wagon.

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list.


...

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

What you are saying is that it is wrong for a bar to display various types of Liquor bottles because some people are alcoholics. Did you know that the % of alcoholics among people who drink any type of alcohol is MUCH MUCH larger than the percentage of people with a gambling addiction among the people who gamble? Alcoholics die from their addiction.

What about people who weigh 500 pounds because they are addicted to carbohydrates or sugar? Should we forbid the grocery stores that display these items? Food addicts die from their addiction.

And the adrenalin addicts? Should we forbid extreme sports? Mountain climbing? The olympics? Adrenalin addicts die from their addiction.

No one died from gambling addiction yet as far as I know, people who are addicts end up broke and get help.

Lots of people like to gamble and have a budget for it, like to eat chocolate every day and are not fat, play sports and don't ruin their bodies. Should we all give up our personal freedoms because some people have an addictive personality?

[1819]

That's a good post Kengam, and sound advice. It's why I personally play only for enjoyment, and only with disposable income. I never look at gambling in any form as a money making venture, just entertainment.

Most hated posters? Nah.....you're like me, emotional.

very well said. people need to take a step back and take a good look in the mirror. when the finger pointing starts dont forget to point at that mirror first! its not the bonus that sucked "you" in. its not the winner screenshot section. its "you."

[Casinomeister]

If ever there was a thread that deserved to locked, buried, nuked and utterly and totally destroyed it is that one. Yet it remains - bigger, brighter and bolder than ever. Almost as indestructible as membership of the accredited Casino list....

I'm glad that the membership of the Accredited list is pretty much indestructible, and most of the members would agree to this as well. It's (nearly) indestructible because these are solid organizations that don't screw the players.

And lest we forget - last year a number of these casinos fell from grace, some even ended up getting rogued - so it's not all that indestructible or infallible. People screw up from time to time.

As for the Cipher thread being locked - Simmo upgraded it to closed after a number of members requested it to be closed (to include the OP). Besides it was turning into a Cipher bash fest - there was no real discussion going on. I started this thread to get to the meat of the matter - gambling systems. If you want to bash away at people, there are forums that welcome this with glee. This is not one of them.

Winning screenshots? What about "Screenshots that suck?" should I close that as well. The WS thread is an outlet to share experiences like any other. Next it'll be suggested that I turn off the banners ads so that you won't be tempted to click on any of them. There is a certain level of personal responsibility that is necessary to exercise in this form of entertainment. It's not up to me to monitor this. We're all grown-ups aren't we?

If you want to continue this discussion, feel free to start a new thread. This one should remain focused. Thanks!

[soflat]

Regarding the Winner's Screenshots thread-

Should anything that could negatively affect someone somewhere be censored? Maybe you guys can get the Republicans to close it down and protect us from the evil allure it has to us.

If you don't like the Winner's Screen Shots then don't look at it.

As for the discussion about predicting/beating the rng, maybe you guys should learn a lesson from Cipher.

[kengam]

[QUOTE=dominique;144778]

Re the winners shots:

I see nothing wrong with it. Most gamblers budget a certain amount of money per month and say: "these $100 say the next winners shot is mine". No different from playing the lottery, sending in a sweepstakes or going on a treasure hunt with a metal detector. If you see something wrong with it, likely you are one of the people who have a gambling problem. You should go get help from gamblers anonymous.

Do you really believe most gamblers gamble on a budget? I would say not. As far as assuming that I might have a gambling probem myself, I can assure you that I do not. I will give you some background on me.

I started playing online casinos when they first came around in 1997. I found that I can play with bonuses everytime and have the advantage over the house. I never once played without a bonus being involved. I never once played when I did not have the mathematical advantage over the house. My results are on par with that. I did not win every session, but profits were consistent over time.

I played every promotion I could find. I managed accounts for several dozen people and shared the profits with them. Needless to say, I did very well for myself and for others. I am officially retired now, and have made much more than I can spend in a lifetime. I basically stopped playing when the US started coming down on online outfits. After losing about 60k when Bet on Sports shut down I began to realize that the legal situation was creating a doubt on my continued profits in this biz. I basically started withdrawing from all my accounts after the November anti-gambling bill was passed. I currently still have about 70k still in neteller and I am unsure if I will be able to retrieve it. The final bell has rung on my enterprise. It was a fun ride while it lasted (9 years). I do not miss the gambling aspect. I am not tempted to play as I know the advantage I once had is no longer there.

Many other people over the years have tried what I have done. Some were quite successful, but most were not. The inability of the average player to secure in his mind that he is only playing with an advantage can prove to be the downfall. Many that I know began to chase losses and really try to hit the big score (ie gambling). Some saw the success that I was having and began to try to up their bets and wager on well after the requirements were hit. Some claimed to be able to predict patterns much like Cipher and paid dearly for their mistake. I have seen players make 6 figures playing bonuses only to lose it all when the bonuses stopped but their playing did not.

To assume that most people have a budget and control over their gambling is extremely naive and unresponsible thinking. I stand by my statement that the winning screenshot threads are causing more harm than not in the psychy of the average gambler.