Let's say....

[gfkostas]

I have 200 and i want to reach 300 with one bet or I die. Isn't the best bet 2 dozens on roulette? That way I have 64% of staying alive . Sure the house edge is 2.7% but that is irrelevant here isn't it?

[tim5ny]

I asked Hoffman and he said two $90.00/spins on Tally-Ho.

[Slotster!]

I asked Hoffman and he said two $90.00/spins on Tally-Ho.

Heh hee!

What about covering the mid numbers on Sic Bo maybe? Dunno... Probably something to do with Craps thinking about it... Ah, it's one bet... Hmmm... Roulette. Yes.

[EasyRhino]

I have 200 and i want to reach 300 with one bet or I die. Isn't the best bet 2 dozens on roulette? That way I have 64% of staying alive . Sure the house edge is 2.7% but that is irrelevant here isn't it?

How about one blackjack bet of $100? If you win, you stop. If you lose, you bet $100 again, and see if you can get up to $300. (If your first hand is one you should split/double, well, that's up to you)

It's about a 66.52% chance of hitting your target, and it's a lower house edge than roulette (not that it matters much on one bet)

Note that I would never condone such play unless you were exploiting a bonus.

[tennis_balls]

are sports bets included?

[dealer wins]

Find a player at a craps table whos betting enough on the passline to allow a $200 odds bet but who's not taking odds. Then when the point is 5 or 9 ask politely if you can take his odds bet.

Give him a long story about if you don't make the $100 your aunt will die due to you not being able to afford to pay for her life saving operation, and 9/10 times I think the player would let you make the bet.

edit: I mean lay odds on the point of 5 or 9. doh!!!

[aka23]

I have 200 and i want to reach 300 with one bet or I die. Isn't the best bet 2 dozens on roulette? That way I have 64% of staying alive . Sure the house edge is 2.7% but that is irrelevant here isn't it?

If you are only allowed a single bet (or you die), then roulette is the way to go. The house edge certainly is not irrelevant. With no house edge (no zero roulette) you have a 24/36 = ~67% chance of survival. With single zero roulette, you have a 24/37 = ~65% chance of survival. With double zero roulette, you have a 24/38 = ~63% chance of survival.

If you are allowed multiple bets, then bj gives you a slightly greater chance of survival than roulette.

[GrandMaster]

How about one blackjack bet of $100? If you win, you stop. If you lose, you bet $100 again, and see if you can get up to $300. (If your first hand is one you should split/double, well, that's up to you)

It's about a 66.52% chance of hitting your target, and it's a lower house edge than roulette (not that it matters much on one bet)

Note that I would never condone such play unless you were exploiting a bonus.

The original question was about a single bet, and I cannot think of anything better than roulette for that.

If you are allowed more bets then the problem with blackjack is that you may go over your target as a result of splitting, doubling or a blackjack, and this inevitably reduces the probability or reaching your target. Where did the 66.52% come from? It seems too high. If you can find blackjack with very small house edge or even a player's edge then betting small at blackjack might work.

The best I have come up with so far is craps. If you bet $100 on don't pass or don't come until you reach $300 or bust, you will reach $300 with probability 1826825/2779401=65.73%.

[gfkostas]

The best I have come up with so far is craps. If you bet $100 on don't pass or don't come until you reach $300 or bust, you will reach $300 with probability 1826825/2779401=65.73%.

On what basis is craps better than roulette for my case?

[EasyRhino]

Where did the 66.52% come from?

I plugged the parameters into here:
http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-calculator-c4.htm

It's targeted towards card counters, so it's not perfect, but what the heck.
Target = 3
Starting bankroll = 2
Win Rate = -0.5 (to reflect house edge)

That gives you a risk of ruin figure. Flip that to see the odds of success. Actually, I just did it again and got 66.62.

As for the "problem" of winning more than the target amount, is that really a problem? What about ties?