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Thread: How likely is this?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyRhino View Post
    Okay, I hear ya. I had a ridiculously bad run autoplaying over 10,000 roulette spins a while back. It was like 4 standard deviations off. In a way it was nice to know that I really was getting hosed.
    4SD??? Where???
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  2. #12
    EasyRhino is offline Senior Member
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    Oh wait, looked up details: 9999 spins, 1 unit each, and a loss of 432 units. Some other dude estimate 3.265 SD? It was at Casinoshare (microgaming) grinding through a ginormous wagering requirement, in April.

    That's how I got my personal conviction that running quickspin and autoplay together on MG roulette is even a bigger gamble than you'd think.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyRhino View Post
    Oh wait, looked up details: 9999 spins, 1 unit each, and a loss of 432 units. Some other dude estimate 3.265 SD? It was at Casinoshare (microgaming) grinding through a ginormous wagering requirement, in April.

    That's how I got my personal conviction that running quickspin and autoplay together on MG roulette is even a bigger gamble than you'd think.
    It is easy to estimate SDs for 10,000 spins on roulette with 1 unit bets. The sqrt of 10,000 is 100. The SD per spin is roughly 1. So 1 SD is roughly 100*1. Assuming you were playing French Roulette, that would make it about 3SDs off from the expected loss of 134.

    I've found FR autoplay to be streaky, including at Casinoshare (actually more so at Casinoshare than elsewhere from my personal experience). There are several Casinomeister threads on this subject, including similar abnormal results. I have not found the odds to be distorted in favor of winning or losing... just streaky.

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