Weird BJ history at Bet365

**El Helado Patat** · 10th December 2006, 08:03 AM

I was playing the flashversion of Bet365 blackjack surrender 3x10$ and lost 860$ after wagering merely 12x460+4x460. Bad luck I know but then i checked with the history and in 180 hands the dealer has got BJ 30 times which means 17% of all hands.

Isnt the odds of catching a BJ roughly 1/14*4/14? Isnt this very very suspicious?

**johnsteed** · 10th December 2006, 08:12 AM

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Crazy stuff, and have had similar experiences playing BJ at a PlayTech casino!

Aside from playing BJ in very short-bursts, I stay away from online BJ. But... Bet365 does have offer "live" BJ. It's slow-as-hell, there's no interaction between you and the other players, but... it's live BJ!

It sure seems fair, and that's what matters the most to me.

Sorry about your "luck" with their BJ, as I know, it's awful... but I'm not fussy about any software's BJ (though other's do well... some actually profit), and haven't been for quite some time now.

Steed

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**aka23** · 10th December 2006, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by El Helado Patat

I was playing the flashversion of Bet365 blackjack surrender 3x10$ and lost 860$ after wagering merely 12x460+4x460. Bad luck I know but then i checked with the history and in 180 hands the dealer has got BJ 30 times which means 17% of all hands.

Isnt the odds of catching a BJ roughly 1/14*4/14? Isnt this very very suspicious?

I added a multi-hand feature to the calc in my signature to estimate this. Assuming I didn't make a mistake, there is a ~2% chance of losing $860 over the course of the wagering. 2% is unlucky, but certainly not statistically impossible.

The chance of a dealer BJ is 1/13*16/51*2 = .0483. The chance of 30 dealer BJs over 180 hands is on the order of 1 in a billion. This is very suspicious.

**tennis_balls** · 10th December 2006, 10:03 AM

Originally Posted by aka23

The chance of a dealer BJ is 1/13*16/51*2 = .0483. The chance of 30 dealer BJs over 180 hands is on the order of 1 in a billion. This is very suspicious.

are you sure it's one in a billion? 30 BJs in 180 hands is odd, but doesn't seem like a one in a billion occurence to me.

and this is Playtech software we're talking about, no?

**aka23** · 10th December 2006, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by tennis_balls

are you sure it's one in a billion? 30 BJs in 180 hands is odd, but doesn't seem like a one in a billion occurence to me.

and this is Playtech software we're talking about, no?

For 30 out of 180, I'm getting:
1 in 2.7 chance of 10+ BJs
1 in 35 chance of 15+ BJs
1 in 2,000 chance of 20+ BJs
1 in 500,000 chance of 25+ BJs
1 in 350,000,000 chance of 30+ BJs

However, the wagering described in the orginal post is closer to 250 hands, rather than the 180 that was listed.

**winbig** · 10th December 2006, 10:48 AM

Or percentage-wise:

The dealer will get 30 BJ's out of 250 hands .000327858124% of the time.

It's definitely a small sample, but something isn't right here.

edit: 30 out of 180 hands brings it up to .0000002605207131%.

edit2: The above numbers are assuming a 4.83% chance of recieving a blackjack, and recieving exactly 30 during that run. I believe the numbers that aka used were "at least" 30. Going by "at least" definitely bloats the numbers; but I'm not sure which calculations would be a better representation.

**thenmh** · 10th January 2007, 03:57 AM

I am also finding Bet365 blackjack to be very tough

The first time I played I went from 40 to 500 euros but now everytime I play the dealer OWNS me so quickly eventhough I strictly follow the blackjack strategy at wizardofodds

**tencardcharlie** · 10th January 2007, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by winbig

but I'm not sure which calculations would be a better representation.

"at least" definitely. You wouln't find it less suspicios if the dealer got 31 BJ:s instead of 30 I guess.

**Rdog** · 12th January 2007, 07:48 AM

Originally Posted by El Helado Patat

I was playing the flashversion of Bet365 blackjack surrender 3x10$ and lost 860$ after wagering merely 12x460+4x460. Bad luck I know but then i checked with the history and in 180 hands the dealer has got BJ 30 times which means 17% of all hands.

Isnt the odds of catching a BJ roughly 1/14*4/14? Isnt this very very suspicious?

Is it possible the explanation is the 3*$10 bets, implying that what actually occurred was 10 blackjacks in 60 hands. The odds of getting exactly 10 BJs in 60 hands is roughly 1765:1 (rounding odds of a BJ to 5%). The odds of getting at least 10 BJs in 60 hands is even better. Still unlikely and unlucky, but well within the realm of possibility.