Probabilities of VP

[sscrabble]

You guys are into probabilities etc - I cannot get my head round them - could anyone work out a formula for this ;-

Three different machines (all jacks or better with 99.54 expected return) -- If you are playing 1 line $ (bet per spin $5) , 10 line - 25c (bet per spin $12.50) , or 50 line 5c ( bet per spin $12.50) -- and you have a) a $500 starting pot b)$100 c) $3000 - what is the probability for each combination of running out of money after a)500 spins b) 1000 spins c)3000 spins. I would not expect you to calculate them all, but would expect that one formula or equation would work, you just change the figures.

I would like to be able to extend it further to say (eg) that if I had say a $1000 start pot and played 1000 hands of a 10 line 25c game ($12500 bet ), that there is a (say) one in ten cance that I will still have $1000 left , a one in five chance I would have $700 left etc - I think that can be done with a probability curve but again do not know how to do it !

If you cannot do it on here , can you point me to a thread or website that might provide that info in simple language !

[Jufo]

You guys are into probabilities etc - I cannot get my head round them - could anyone work out a formula for this ;-

Three different machines (all jacks or better with 99.54 expected return) -- If you are playing 1 line $ (bet per spin $5) , 10 line - 25c (bet per spin $12.50) , or 50 line 5c ( bet per spin $12.50) -- and you have a) a $500 starting pot b)$100 c) $3000 - what is the probability for each combination of running out of money after a)500 spins b) 1000 spins c)3000 spins. I would not expect you to calculate them all, but would expect that one formula or equation would work, you just change the figures.

I would like to be able to extend it further to say (eg) that if I had say a $1000 start pot and played 1000 hands of a 10 line 25c game ($12500 bet ), that there is a (say) one in ten cance that I will still have $1000 left , a one in five chance I would have $700 left etc - I think that can be done with a probability curve but again do not know how to do it !

If you cannot do it on here , can you point me to a thread or website that might provide that info in simple language !

There is no formula or equation to calculate the probabilities for your question, mostly because VP results don't follow normal distribution so it takes a computer simulation to calculate the precise odds. Luckily for you there is such a simulator at Beating Bonuses, which can simulate 1-hand, 4-hand, 10-hand, 25-hand and 100-hand versions of Jacks or Better (link). You type in starting balance and total wagering and it gives you the probability distribution of the end result. You can also calculate the probabilities to end at certain result after certain amount played so you should get answers to all those questions with the sim.