Blackjack: Do You Use Progressive Betting?

[bpb]

Well, whatever, dude. I'm not here to preach, just sharing what I recorded. 120 hands may not be 120,000 -- but it isn't a sample of just 20 or 30 hands, either.

With all those 10s and Aces, combined with the face cards hitting at a statistical average, that yielded a Dealer Up Card of 10-value (or an Ace) more than 40 times out of 120 hands. That's one out of every three hands. Am I crazy? Is that normal?

I'll bite

No, it isn't normal. The dealer should be showing an A/T more often than that.

There are 13 ranks of cards in a deck, A,K,Q,J,T,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2.
1/13 are A
4/13 are K,Q,J,T

so 5/13 of the cards are A,K,Q,J,T

So the dealer should show an A,K,Q,J,T 1 in 2.6 hands (= 1/(13/5))

And you observed the dealer showing an A,K,Q,J,T 1 in 3 hands

The dealer wasn't getting enough A,K,Q,J,T

Hey, I'm just a noob standing on the shoulders of giants. I know I'm not the first person by a long shot to discuss this or to bring up such bizarre numbers. I'm just trying to figure out how beat the system, not the game.

There are two ways to beat the system

1) Play with bonuses. It is a mathematically sound strategy, and stories of casinos labelling you as an abuser and seizing funds are widely overexaggerated. It happens from time to time, but if you avoid the completely rogue ones, and don't play excluded games, you'll be fine.

2) Don't play for real money.

[bpb]

Given how worthless your response was, I shouldn't have any problem with that.

Is there such a thing as a reverse-Thanks on Casinomeister..?



Oh, and Homey, it's spelled "losing" not "loosing". I'm sure you'll do enough of it to get it down.

If you ignore the first paragraph of insults, his response was far from worthless.

[aka23]

did they rig jack to make aka23 a 20 k profit at 40 casinos? you guys really think they counter-strategise the random shuffles to beat player basic strategy?

I'm not a good example because I do use progressive betting, and I am paranoid about non-random elements in casino SW. A rundown of my feelings about different SW where I have played is below:

Probably Has Non-Random Elements

Wager21 -- I posted screenshots of multiple matching hands in Pai Gow (all 7 cards match) in another thread. Matching hands results in a loss and occurs almost 1 in 100,000 hands. One of their VP games would have a pay out of over 101% with optimal strategy, if random. Another poster compared these games to slots, emphasizing that they are not random.

Cassinova -- Reportedly cheating SW. Lost $250 with this group.

IGlobalMedia -- I've had longer BJ streaks with this group than any other. I went ~17 hands without a loss at Aces Club. I was not able to take advantage of the streaks due to a high frequency of loss with large increases in bet size. Others have mentioned odd results at other casinons, such as busting the Starluck/Planetluck bonus with $1 bets. The odds of busting this 16xB bonus with optimal strategy is roughly 1 in 500.

RTG -- Most casino groups have maximum on their bonuses. RTG casinos often have minimums and no practical maximum (often upwards of 10k). This includes clear EV+ bonuses, such as 200% no playthrough bonuses. The minimum often increases with a larger bonus %. With such bonuses, it should come as no surprise that the casino likely has non-random elements. I have found RTG casinos to be streaky. Several others on this forum have mentioned streakyness as well. An obvious casino advantage to streakyness is busting before meeting wagering requirements. Another is players who double their bet until winning. I have gained more than statistically expected with a unique progressive betting method. I've noticed a few other patterns with results in unique situations.

Random Logic -- I play a bonus on this SW each month and have played well over 10,000 hands with this group. I've noticed a higher rate of dealer aces being BJ than statistically expected. Others have mentioned this as well. One poster mentioned the dealer getting 5 BJs in a row. I've also noticed a significantly higher rate of loss as I start to approach wagering requirements. Some streakyness as well.

Parlay -- Streakyness. Progressive betting has worked quite well for me here.


May Have Non-Random Elements

Boss Media -- I've busted every time since Casino.net banned me from receiving bonuses. Other than that I have no issue with this SW.

Playtech -- A higher rate of loss with half+ bankroll bets than expected. When I did win a $1020 hand, it was with a bad hand -- 11 doubled and drew an ace. After this big win, I seemed to go into loser mode into other BJ games while finishing up the wagering requirement.

Microgaming -- French Roulette can be streaky. Another poster mentioned the same number coming up 5 times in a row. This happened twice within a period of a few minutes. I've noticed this as well. I've gained a lot more than I should have with half-bankroll BJ bets. This could indicate non-randomness, but if so, its in my favor. Another poster mentioned losing 8/8 times with full bankroll 200+ bets in baccarat. I've only made one max ($500) bet in baccarat, which was a winner.

Cryptologic -- Progressive betting has been beneficial with this group, especially at littlewoods. I seemed to simultaneously enter a loser mode with the Ukbetting & Totalbet group, losing 90% of hands or so. I shouldn't have been playing here, as US is banned. That may be connected.

Instaplay -- I've noticed a higher rate of loss when nearing the end of wagering requirements.

[POlka78]

I stick to my argument that as long as some one is looking for patterns he probably starts seeing patterns especially while clearing a 10000+ WR flatbetting 1 Unit.

Yesterday i busted out flatbetting on a 2000 wr with 200 Units to play and had to reload. You should have seen me calling the dealer names and accusing him of cheating when my 21 got dominated by blackjacks and so on. i even was affraid to check the playthrough bar because everytime i did the dealer startet a winning spree. But then again how often do i check how much is left especially when you are not running well.

My question is for what reason should online casinos not use random number generators? If the reason is to rob our money then they do an awful bad job, because if i see how much i am up on Casino Bonuses it makes me smile all day long.

For sure there have been crooks in this business and there probably is ongoing cheating but im convinced that the major licenses all deal a fair game.

@tailgun, iam sorry if i have hurt your feelings )
but its always easy yelling rigged. And think about it what point do you want to proof when it comes to probability with a sample size of 120? Oh and btw sorry for my english spelling its not my mothers tong.

[frufrugirl]

I've seen a lot of people say they don't get the bad beats at B&M casinos like they do online.

Personally, I have only played B&M BJ once and I got my ass kicked playing perfect strategy. It was as bad as my worse run online. The dealer sure was cute though.

Ive only played 2 times at a land casino. (im shy about playing with other people too!)I played with an ugly dealer and lots of cute players who helped me "learn", I won. Then the next time I went I played with a cutie pie dealer and a bunch of ugly customers and got spanked! (i wish)

[happygobrokey]

streakiness is random.

predictable streakiness not so much. a la LWLWLWLWLW... or LLWWLLWW...

but over 10k coin flips you are likely to get a streak where you get 15 of the same outcome in a row.

and streakiness is also how you win!

[aka23]

but over 10k coin flips you are likely to get a streak where you get 15 of the same outcome in a row.

15 in a row requires an average of ~16k coin flips. 17 in a row like I saw at a row at Aces requires 65k coin flips (actually less since wins + ties, rather than coin flip) while I only played a small fraction of that. The odds of drawing the same number 5 times in a row in French Roulette is 1 in 1.8 million. One poster posted screen shots of this happening twice within a few minutes.

Nevertheless, I do understand your point. And I believe the degree of streakyness with some SW is beyond just random chance. Gaining more than statiscally expected with progressive betting is further evidence of this.

[mgibson99]

Classic example was last night, I doubled on a 16 and hit a duece and won. I did another double on a 17 hit a 4 and won.

I assume these were "hard" cards, otherwise doubling on a soft 16 or 17 against a weak dealer card would be normal play. You say this is
a "classic example". Of what? Blind luck? Assuming the game is fair, it has been statistically proven that your best chance of winning at blackjack is to use perfect basic strategy. I don't believe anyone would contest that. If you feel the need to make these random (and extremely odd) deviations from basic strategy, then you must believe the game is rigged or being influenced in some way (maybe by this AI a couple of people have mentioned). Why do you even bother playing then? I would NEVER play blackjack in any casino where I felt my only (or best) chance of winning was to play randomly without regard to strategy.

You mention that you are consistently a winner. With all due respect, I find that hard to believe.