Blackjack: Do You Use Progressive Betting?

**happygobrokey** · 24th September 2006, 12:34 AM

possibly you mean a card with a value of ten, not just the number 10? four of the thirteen ranks of cards meet this criterion, or nearly 1/3. so ~30% of the cards in the shoe are worth ten.

and 1/13, the proportion of aces in the shoe, works out, amazingly, to 0.076923, or roughly 8%. given any card could appear anytime in any position, should not the dealer's hole card be an ace or ten-value even more often than you've calculated?

so unless the dealer had the number 10 card 17% of the time in your considerably small sample, i am fine with the dealer having that upcard that % of the time.

**bpb** · 24th September 2006, 12:54 AM

Originally Posted by Tailgun

That's one out of every four hands the Dealer started with either a 10 or a bullet.

Sound fair to you?

I'm speechless

**Tailgun** · 24th September 2006, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by happygobrokey

possibly you mean a card with a value of ten, not just the number 10? four of the thirteen ranks of cards meet this criterion, or nearly 1/3. so ~30% of the cards in the shoe are worth ten.

and 1/13, the proportion of aces in the shoe, works out, amazingly, to 0.076923, or roughly 8%. given any card could appear anytime in any position, should not the dealer's hole card be an ace or ten-value even more often than you've calculated?

so unless the dealer had the number 10 card 17% of the time in your considerably small sample, i am fine with the dealer having that upcard that % of the time.

No, dude. Those were straight 10's, period. Really, you should see the bar graph! I checked the session again before replying to you and count 5 Jacks, 5 Queens and 4 Kings. That's 14 total face cards showing on the Dealer's Up Card out of 120 hands. Which is within statistical probability for the given sample.

I'm not finished; I'd like to do more tests. But the software does show some incredible trends.

After betting outside my range and seeing the house win 6 hands in a row (I went from $3050 down to $1600), I used the software to set my bets. It took a sample of about 40 hands to start seeing the indicators. I started betting when the charts indicated and began hitting regular as rain, shorting my bets when the trends indicated I was in for an upcoming losing trend. It took about 60 hands, but I worked all the way back up to $3150, stopping at the 120 hands mark.

**happygobrokey** · 24th September 2006, 01:03 AM

playing at a kismet group casino today i had two bj's immediately followed by four in a row 11 totals, then five minutes later four bj's in a row. pity it was on $2 bets though.

also seems strange for some reason the number ten was somehow favoured. i would chalk it down to the image of the card is less complex and sends quicker? but add 14 face plus 17 tens out of 120 is a quarter so still not so extraordinary? but why do you care if the number ten or a king comes out and how often did all the other numbers (9s, 6s, deuces) come up?

**lucky21** · 24th September 2006, 02:31 AM

i absolutly agree tailgun
online blackjack does not behave like B+m blackjack and every time i suggest this there are those that come out and say no the casino's wouldnt do that not the honest one's anyway.

how much bigger an oxymoron can you find "honest casino's" On several casinos i joined I found that my progressive bet kicked arse for the first few sessions using a list of 3 bets and betting the first and last then the middle i cant remember the name, but after these few sessions the betting method will only work if i mix things up with a lot of random play so i agree with this artificial inteligence idea

There is nothing random about online casino's rngs they are suedo rngs so subject to change just like there terms and conditions are even when they are "certified" if you read the fine print on alot of certificates it states random according to the manufactures specifications.

If they where crooked they wouldnt get customers- well there are so many people trying online casinos and believing they arent crooked that they will allways have a customer base unless they do something very obviously wrong that drives people away.

then if you do happen to win a big unprogrammed win like myself, pirate 21 and others they deem you to be doing something wrong with no recoarse as the are really answerable to know one in the backward countries they exist in

I think your right tailgun the card the dealer gets sometimes is absolutley unbelievable, I still manage to keep my head above water and come out with some drinkin money but i dont bet the sheep station

keep doing your analysis it will be good to hear your results

**lucky21** · 24th September 2006, 02:34 AM

Lets see these casino's come out and show that there rng's have passed marsaglies die hard test or some other recognised testing method

**tencardcharlie** · 24th September 2006, 08:00 AM

Tailgun, I doub't that you formulated that hypothesis (If the dealer shows an improbable number of 'tens' during my test: then the game is fixed) before you made your test. So basically the test is useless, because something very improbable is most likely to happen during the test period. You can't just take a sample - look for something suspicious - and then calculate the probabilities for that to happen - because that will always give you highly significant results.

**Tailgun** · 24th September 2006, 08:30 AM

Originally Posted by tencardcharlie

Tailgun, I doubt that you formulated that hypothesis (If the dealer shows an improbable number of 'tens' during my test: then the game is fixed) before you made your test. So basically the test is useless, because something very improbable is most likely to happen during the test period. You can't just take a sample - look for something suspicious - and then calculate the probabilities for that to happen - because that will always give you highly significant results.

Well, whatever, dude. I'm not here to preach, just sharing what I recorded. 120 hands may not be 120,000 -- but it isn't a sample of just 20 or 30 hands, either.

With all those 10s and Aces, combined with the face cards hitting at a statistical average, that yielded a Dealer Up Card of 10-value (or an Ace) more than 40 times out of 120 hands. That's one out of every three hands. Am I crazy? Is that normal?

Hey, I'm just a noob standing on the shoulders of giants. I know I'm not the first person by a long shot to discuss this or to bring up such bizarre numbers. I'm just trying to figure out how beat the system, not the game.

Thus endeth the sermon...

**POlka78** · 24th September 2006, 11:27 AM

Make sure your wear your tinfoil had running your analysis somebody told me that knows someone whos best friends father is working in a secrect Online Casino department. They somtimes use gamma-argon rays through your Monitor to whipe out your memory or delete the compromising files so beware!!!
Only these tinfoilhats guarantee you are dealt a fair game!

I dont now how many hands of blackjack you have played in a b&m casino but usually over a night in a b&m i only play a few hundred hands. When i look back at the tens of thousands hands i played online i for sure remember some strange hands, streaks and coherences( you know i never lose a double wearing my girls pantys on my head).

Take it as it is we are humans we are looking for patterns all the time, if you look hard enough you will for sure always find some sort of pattern.

And in case you are going to get filthy rich with your trend analysis to beat those rigged online casinos just forget about what i wrote