MG BJ figures

[ftg]

The following is the figures that I got in Jan 2006 playing MG Vegas Strip Black Jack (except session 22 and 29 which are European BJ). These figures are from a single MG Casino.

These figures are complied from Playcheck so that actually the total means total no. of entries (which is an underestimation of the no. of hands but I guess it should not be understimate by 10%).

I calcaute the sd which is -3.4.

BTW, I am NOT flat fatting.

Do you have any comments?


8267.00 3662.08 4040.42 (378.33) -4.58%
Total W L Net
1 420.00 186.00 202.20 (16.20) -3.86%
2 574.00 263.33 265.00 (1.67) -0.29%
3 270.00 111.50 140.50 (29.00) -10.74%
4 674.00 313.50 323.33 (9.83) -1.46%
5 86.00 28.17 55.00 (26.83) -31.20%
6 375.00 168.00 188.00 (20.00) -5.33%
7 160.00 78.50 71.00 7.50 4.69%
8 124.00 58.50 56.00 2.50 2.02%
9 261.00 107.67 129.83 (22.17) -8.49%
10 332.00 161.00 152.50 8.50 2.56%
11 202.00 92.50 95.83 (3.33) -1.65%
12 307.00 137.75 149.00 (11.25) -3.66%
13 642.00 284.50 318.68 (34.18) -5.32%
14 148.00 63.00 75.00 (12.00) -8.11%
15 361.00 152.67 179.00 (26.33) -7.29%
16 80.00 34.50 42.00 (7.50) -9.38%
17 251.00 105.50 132.00 (26.50) -10.56%
18 22.00 6.00 15.00 (9.00) -40.91%
19 401.00 166.83 195.33 (28.50) -7.11%
20 118.00 49.50 64.67 (15.17) -12.85%
21 78.00 32.00 35.00 (3.00) -3.85%
22 282.00 132.00 131.00 1.00 0.35%
23 326.00 146.00 156.83 (10.83) -3.32%
24 270.00 113.83 143.50 (29.67) -10.99%
25 155.00 76.00 75.20 0.80 0.52%
26 713.00 310.17 341.33 (31.17) -4.37%
27 168.00 76.50 81.00 (4.50) -2.68%
28 54.00 25.17 21.00 4.17 7.72%
29 60.00 28.00 28.00 0.00 0.00%
30 284.00 125.00 142.67 (17.67) -6.22%
31 69.00 28.50 35.00 (6.50) -9.42%

[ftg]

9 more sessions for today:

32 167.00 72.00 82.00 (10.00) -5.99%
33 68.00 34.00 32.00 2.00 2.94%
34 78.00 38.00 33.00 5.00 6.41%
35 30.00 10.50 16.00 (5.50) -18.33%
36 66.00 33.00 32.00 1.00 1.52%
37 98.00 45.17 46.00 (0.83) -0.85%
38 14.00 14.50 1.00 13.50 96.43%
39 189.00 78.50 102.00 (23.50) -12.43%
40 26.00 7.00 18.00 (11.00) -42.31%

1-40 sessions: 9003.00 3994.75 4402.42 (407.67) -4.53%

The SD is now at -3.6

[GrandMaster]

I would need the outcome of each hand in order to calculate how you are doing.

[mitch]

Originally Posted by ftg

9 more sessions for today:
1-40 sessions: 9003.00 3994.75 4402.42 (407.67) -4.53%

The SD is now at -3.6

Perhaps you are using Silcnlayc's method :-

"I , myself play exactly OPPOSITE of what is the correct play, when playing BJ online. I have split 10's against a 9, I have doubled down on 6, I have stood on 7's and 8's....I have always stood on 14-16 against 9 or 10 and won 99% of the time, and I actually make out pretty darn good doing what is NOt recommended."

That should explain it!

Mitch

[ftg]

I straightly play according to the perfect strategy suggested by Wizofodds.
Of course there will be human errors by clicking the wrong button but that would be less than 20 hands in all the 9000 hands.

Originally Posted by mitch

Perhaps you are using Silcnlayc's method :-

"I , myself play exactly OPPOSITE of what is the correct play, when playing BJ online. I have split 10's against a 9, I have doubled down on 6, I have stood on 7's and 8's....I have always stood on 14-16 against 9 or 10 and won 99% of the time, and I actually make out pretty darn good doing what is NOt recommended."

That should explain it!

Mitch

[ftg]

Let me explain in details how I get the figures.

1. I play perfect strategy for Vegas Strip Black Jack

2. after each session, I go to Playcheck and copy and paste the details to an Excel file. See the attached.

3. The attached shows session 24:
24 270.00 113.83 143.50 (29.67) -10.99%

4. Column G is no. of units win (if the entry/hand is a win).
4.1 When it's a BJ, it will be recorded as 1.5. (see row 7, highlighted in RED). Formula is : G=F/E.
4.2 A double and win will still be recorded as 1 since the payout is doubled that of wagering amount.
4.3 It will get a strange no. (e.g. 0.67) when the hand involves a split and one of the splitted hand get a double.

5. Column H is no. of units lost. It is always -1 for a loss (even for a double).

6. Column I is the accumulated win or loss.

7. G1, H1, I1 is the sum of each column.

[dickens1298]

How large a sample is a large enough sample? Theoretically, the house edge is given over millions of hands, not the several thousand you have played.

[ftg]

Two more sessions played. See this one.

I copy and past the content from playcheck (deleted date & time column for better visual alignment in the forum). This include a straight 16 unit loss in 15 hands (one hand is doubled). Everyone can see I play Basic Strategy.

For the first hand 17902,
9,6, 3 is the dealer hand
8, 4, 10 / 8, Q is player hand (splitted)


--------------------------------------------------------------------

17902 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 12 6
9, 6, 3 - 8, 4, 10 / 8 Q
17903 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 8
6, Q, 6 - A, 4, A
17904 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
K, 10 - 8 5 3 8
17905 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
Q 4 - 10 3 K
17906 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 2 0
J Q - 8 9 / 8 4 J
17907 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A 2 - J 6 9
17908 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
9 3 - 6 10 7
17909 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
8 2 J - 8 A
17910 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A 4 - 2 2 9 3 J
17911 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A A - 4 J J
17912 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
6 J 3 - 6 5 3
17913 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 8 0
3 9 6 - 9 3 J / 9 5
17914 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
8 4 - 3 K Q
17915 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
A K - A 9
17916 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
Q K - 9 Q
17917 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
Q 5 - 5 10 8
17918 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
2 4 2 2 J - 6 J
17919 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 32
J Q - K 2 9
17920 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 26
K J - 8 2 10
17921 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 52
7 6 9 - 10 J
17922 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 26
Q 9 - 4 5 K
17923 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 65
K 9 - A K
17924 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 36 0
17925 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 6
17926 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 0
17927 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 0
17928 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17929 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17930 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17931 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 2
17932 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 2 4
17933 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at my recent plays, all the straight loss of 10 hands or above happens when I am increasing my betsize. I am not saying that they are rigged but it is very suspicious. As I said some time ago, seems the casino software is doing some trick like that:
the probability ( player loss) is proportional to (the betsize divided by average bet size in the previous x bets)

In the 9,000 hands played in Jan 06, I had seen many losing streak of 10 or above, all of them being when I am inceasing my bet size, but no as much as this one (from $1-$46).

How many of you had tried a losing streak of 15 straight loss? I guess, if you are flat-betting, either you never, or just a few times.

[dickens1298]

My girlfriend has just made an interesting observation while I was reading this thread - "what's this guy trying to prove by losing?"

She has a good point. I don't play MG BJ because it has always been a difficult game for me to win. It seems to play "differently" than BJ at B&M and Cryptologic casinos, both of which are casinos of choice. Does "different" mean "rigged"? Not necessarily, but I have certainly been far less successful at MG BJ than other BJ. I don't play MG BJ for this very reason.

In short, if you feel that something is suspicious, why continue to play it? Crying "foul" because of a loss disproportional to the house edge isn't likely to compel MG to revisit its BJ programming, nor is it likely to redirect players from MG sites.

But with your losses mounting, it DOES appear that you would be continuing the self-flagellation.

Originally Posted by ftg

Two more sessions played. See this one.

I copy and past the content from playcheck (deleted date & time column for better visual alignment in the forum). This include a straight 16 unit loss in 15 hands (one hand is doubled). Everyone can see I play Basic Strategy.

For the first hand 17902,
9,6, 3 is the dealer hand
8, 4, 10 / 8, Q is player hand (splitted)


--------------------------------------------------------------------

17902 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 12 6
9, 6, 3 - 8, 4, 10 / 8 Q
17903 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 8
6, Q, 6 - A, 4, A
17904 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
K, 10 - 8 5 3 8
17905 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
Q 4 - 10 3 K
17906 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 2 0
J Q - 8 9 / 8 4 J
17907 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A 2 - J 6 9
17908 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
9 3 - 6 10 7
17909 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
8 2 J - 8 A
17910 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A 4 - 2 2 9 3 J
17911 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 0
A A - 4 J J
17912 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
6 J 3 - 6 5 3
17913 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 8 0
3 9 6 - 9 3 J / 9 5
17914 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
8 4 - 3 K Q
17915 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
A K - A 9
17916 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
Q K - 9 Q
17917 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
Q 5 - 5 10 8
17918 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 46 0
2 4 2 2 J - 6 J
17919 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 32
J Q - K 2 9
17920 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 26
K J - 8 2 10
17921 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 52
7 6 9 - 10 J
17922 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 26
Q 9 - 4 5 K
17923 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 26 65
K 9 - A K
17924 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 36 0
17925 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 6
17926 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 0
17927 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 6 0
17928 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17929 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17930 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 16 0
17931 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 1 2
17932 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 2 4
17933 View Table - Vegas Strip BlackJack 4 0
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at my recent plays, all the straight loss of 10 hands or above happens when I am increasing my betsize. I am not saying that they are rigged but it is very suspicious. As I said some time ago, seems the casino software is doing some trick like that:
the probability ( player loss) is proportional to (the betsize divided by average bet size in the previous x bets)

In the 9,000 hands played in Jan 06, I had seen many losing streak of 10 or above, all of them being when I am inceasing my bet size, but no as much as this one (from $1-$46).

How many of you had tried a losing streak of 15 straight loss? I guess, if you are flat-betting, either you never, or just a few times.

[Vesuvio]

Originally Posted by ftg

How many of you had tried a losing streak of 15 straight loss? I guess, if you are flat-betting, either you never, or just a few times.

You see extraordinary losing and winning streaks flat betting $1/£1 on autoplay. Obviously it's more painful if you're playing a negative progression or using high stakes.