Probability & Percentages

[the hunt]

This is something that has played on my mind for some time now.

Ive always wondered EXACTLY how the paypout percentage etc is audited or functioned at an online casino.

I understand ruturns are based over many hundred of thouands of pounds etc but....

For example:

-Is it worked in everyone who plays the casino as a whole?

or

-Worked per person, or per person per game?

-Does the fact that I lost lots last time mean I have a better chance the next day?


I know its all quite complicated but any enlightenment would be appreciated.

[casinomike]

the mathematical "law of independant trials" dictates that each spin/hand/whatever is a unique event. The machine has no 'memory' and therefor your past results have absolutely no impact on your future results.

thinking anything else is strictly incorrect "gambler's" thinking.

the payouts also are not unique to any one person, but an overall average of all players in the casino.

For example, many times I see casinos claim things like "98% payout for blackjack". Well, if you play correct blackjack strategy it should be more like 99.5%. This means that there are gamblers out there who by playing incorrect strategy throw the payout numbers off of what the true house advantage of the game is

[caruso]

Originally Posted by the hunt

I know its all quite complicated but any enlightenment would be appreciated.

It's very simple: financial return in relation to total player wagers.

If total wagers were $1,000,000 and the casino made a profit of $30,000 on those total wagers, that would be a return of 3% to the casino, or a 97% payout to the players.

[the hunt]

cheers guys, wasnt thinking the casinos were screwing me, just wanted to know how they worked it.

Many thanks.

[Slotmachine]

Just remember, if you deposit $30,000 this year, 97% payout does not mean you'll get $29,100 back. It means that once you've wagered $1,000,000, on an average you'll have lost all of it and got nothing back. The casino can still claim they paid you 97% winnings. You wagered 1,000,000, won 970,000, lost 30,000 - oops, that was the 30,000 you had vanishing in a puff of mathematics! Casino wins 100%, claims 97% payout, and is correct!

Cheers,
SM

[caruso]

Yes, that's a very good point, well worth reinforcing: the game payout has nothing to do with the payout you receive relative to your deposit.

You can have a 99.94% payout, like Crypto single deck blackjack. Deposit $1000 and wager a little over 1.5 million with perfect strategy, and you will on average still lose 100% of your deposit, 0.06% game loss rate notwithstanding.

This is why casinos love to trumpet those "97% slot payout" headlines: very few punters understand what this means, and assume that $100 deposited will return $97 on those slots. Then they scratch their heads wondering what happened when they consistently lose the lot - wasn't that game supposed to pay out 97%??

[the hunt]

thanks guys for explaining it fully. As much as you info helped, pleeeeease dont think im a casino/mathmatical noob or come to think of it a fool who stand at the slots going


"oi, I put in a tenner, wheres me minimum payout of seven quid guvna?"

[retlaw]

Originally Posted by casinomike

the mathematical "law of independant trials" dictates that each spin/hand/whatever is a unique event. The machine has no 'memory' and therefor your past results have absolutely no impact on your future results.

Each spin is a unique event but from the moment you start, all your spins are already programmed.
It looks to us like each spin is an "independant trial" but for me it is not the same, because the software "knows" already what your 100 th spin will be.

I wonder however, when we start playing again the next day, we continue where we stopped, or we start a "new" already programmed run?

[GrandMaster]

Originally Posted by retlaw

Each spin is a unique event but from the moment you start, all your spins are already programmed.
It looks to us like each spin is an "independant trial" but for me it is not the same, because the software "knows" already what your 100 th spin will be.

I wonder however, when we start playing again the next day, we continue where we stopped, or we start a "new" already programmed run?

It's not like that at all. Some software provider (e.g., Boss Media) use an external source of randomness which cannot be predicted by software. Even those that use purely software generate random numbers continuously, and you get the number that happens to come up when you hit "spin" or "deal".

[retlaw]

Originally Posted by GrandMaster

It's not like that at all. Some software provider (e.g., Boss Media) use an external source of randomness which cannot be predicted by software. Even those that use purely software generate random numbers continuously, and you get the number that happens to come up when you hit "spin" or "deal".

I played on an RTG casino the game Cleopatra's Gold and hit 3 Pyramids which gave me a bonus round of 15 spins.During that round I lost connection,with still 11 spins to go.
When I did get connection with the casino again,I did not get the free spins which were left.
I complained and got the following answer :

Dear ,

The techs have checked your games, as did I, and everything is square.
This is exactly what they said:

"When a player hits 3 pyramids, the bonus games are automatically entered
into the database. The player hit 3 pyramids on game number 398102814.
The next 15 games (games 398102815 through 398102829) are his bonus games.
The player does not see this immediately. The game client on his computer
already has the information to play out the games as they already exist in
the database.

So the player's account is paid for all bonus games when 3 pyramids are
hit on the game."

They also did send me a spreadsheet with the results of my bonus spins to prove it.

This is the reason why I think the spins are programmed.
Unless it is only for bonus rounds on RTG software????