Mathematical Proof that English Harbour is cheating

[spearmaster]

What I still cannot get my head around is the sudden drop-off of actual play from the day the "bug" entered the game.

These are the figures for the days before and after "bugday"

Apr 12: wins=1199, losses=1195, ties=121, win ratio=50.08%
Apr 13: wins=194, losses=266, ties=27, win ratio=42.17%

During the period Apr 1 - Apr 12 there were an average of 1993 double up actions every day. Why the sudden dramatic drop to 487 the very day the bug enters the mix. Something here just does not make any sence to me.

What Grandmaster said.

I think I addressed this much earlier in the thread - if you kept losing, would you continue to double? Then there is the issue of this thread warning people, and rightfully so...

How many actual players keep a log of each bet they make and the results?

If you're going to make a claim, back it up with some evidence. You can't just shout "Fire!" and expect everyone to believe you when there isn't even any smoke present.

The "one-time glitch" statement is NOT the issue at hand here. The "non-randomness of the doubling game within video poker from April 14-May 2" is the issue at hand.

You can say you never cheated on your wife/gf/bf/significant other, and when caught claim it is a one-off after a heavy drinking session. Should you be required to produce all the people you have met in the past to verify that you didn't do anything strange with them too just to prove that it indeed was a one-off - or do you think admitting your mistake and allowing the evidence of the current issue to be examined is the right way to go?

Let me state one LAST time - I am trying to get to the bottom of the non-randomness of the doubling game during the period in question - NOTHING else. It's bad enough that I'm being sidetracked by a million (gee, maybe I better go count just to make sure) other things entirely unrelated to this issue.

[HKGambler]

Spear, why do you have to decide for EH not to turn over past log files? Did you actually ask them and they replied no way? At least I am interested in hearing what they think.

EH, know you are reading here:- Is it really that impractical to hand over log files, of say past 24 months, to some prestigious certified accountants for scrutiny? This is a wise move for you if you are really genuine & co-operative, like Spear described. At least that can shut lots of people’s mouth, if not all. Don’t tell us it sets a bad precedent. Your case already is a bad precedent. Solve today before you think of tomorrow, maybe you have no.

Or, are you just expecting Spearmaster’s report on your codes that can settle the crowds’ frustration? I predict that Spear’s final report alone doesn’t explain all (not intended to pour cold water onto Spear’s head).

Or, are you just sitting at your back office, praying this will end as soon as possible?

Or, are you planning to do something solidly more, than the code release alone, to our surprise, to save your already damaged reputation?

Answer us. Since you’re not willing to come forward, emailing Bryan or Ted will do.

[thelawnet]

They chose the wrong test to begin with.

What test did they choose? First I heard you said they were saying if you went back to January 1st then things would look fair.

Then you said you just assumed January 1st, and it might be an earlier date.

Now are you saying that they did go back to January 1st but chose the wrong test?

If so, what kind of test did they use? I believe any test would show up the problem.

These excuses from them seem pretty thin. All evidence points to that first statement being complete bullshit (firstly, any test would show that the game was biased; secondly, they had just replaced the code in the game in question, and thirdly, the statement subsequently was acknowledged by them to be totally wrong, and in fact the game was rigged). Whether or not they accidentally put bad code in or not, I cannot see how the first statement can be explained as anything other than them attempting to deny what they knew well that they had done, namely provide a rigged game.

You can say you never cheated on your wife/gf/bf/significant other, and when caught claim it is a one-off after a heavy drinking session. Should you be required to produce all the people you have met in the past to verify that you didn't do anything strange with them too just to prove that it indeed was a one-off - or do you think admitting your mistake and allowing the evidence of the current issue to be examined is the right way to go?

I don't quite get the 'English Harbour don't have to justify themselves, they are doing everyone a favour by providing what info they have' schtick. Yes they do have to justify themselves. They have been caught once, and so the presumption of guilt is there. Not only that, but they are running the business, not me, not anybody else here. They need to convince players that they are honest. There should not be any 'ah we'll give you four months, but we can't be bothered to go back and check two years'. It is quite clearly not the same as a wife cheating on her husband: in that case the couple have some commitment to each other - you can't replace years of love, memories, possessions owned together - whereas the player's relationship with English Harbour is completely disposable, and could easily be replaced with any one of the thousand other online casinos. So no, this is not like a CHEATING wife.

The question of opening Pandora's box as you put it doesn't come into it. This is not a player trying to get paid, this is about English Harbour trying to convince everyone else that they are an honest casino, and as such they need to do whatever needs to be done to convince people. How hard can it be to provide 24 months data if they have already provided 4 months? I find it unlikely that they would provide accurate data in the event that they had previously 'flicked the switch', because it would basically prove that they deliberately cheated, but I don't see that English Harbour are any position to dictate what they will or won't do.

And why do they not explain why they left faulty code in place, and why they denied something was wrong, having just replaced some faulty code?

[thelawnet]

What Grandmaster said.

I think I addressed this much earlier in the thread - if you kept losing, would you continue to double? Then there is the issue of this thread warning people, and rightfully so...

Actually this thread came a couple of weeks after the cheating started. It didn't warn anyone, as they shut the game down very soon after this thread was posted.

But I don't think the decline is particularly notable: one, you go play something else if you start losing, and two, if you lose, you run out of money, so it's not possible for you to play any further.

So no great mystery.

[spearmaster]

What test did they choose?

What I meant by my statement is that they obviously did not choose to test daily results - rather, they tested a cumulative result over a period of time which I thought to date from January 1.

The question of opening Pandora's box as you put it doesn't come into it. This is not a player trying to get paid, this is about English Harbour trying to convince everyone else that they are an honest casino, and as such they need to do whatever needs to be done to convince people.

I completely disagree. And I'm going to leave it at that.

[soflat]

I don't think they are trying to convince players to give them a second chance. They have already written us off.

They are more interested in getting affiliates on board to attract new players. Eventually this thread will disappear into the depths of CM archives, and the new players won't have a clue.

They have avoided roguedom at CasinoMeister and WoO. Mission accomplished.

[kengam]

Ted, you seem to speak freely for English Harbour. Have you been in communication with them since the conference?

[spearmaster]

Spear, why do you have to decide for EH not to turn over past log files? Did you actually ask them and they replied no way? At least I am interested in hearing what they think.

I didn't decide for them. I said that I would not ask for them.

EH, know you are reading here:- Is it really that impractical to hand over log files, of say past 24 months, to some prestigious certified accountants for scrutiny? This is a wise move for you if you are really genuine & co-operative, like Spear described. At least that can shut lots of people’s mouth, if not all. Don’t tell us it sets a bad precedent. Your case already is a bad precedent. Solve today before you think of tomorrow, maybe you have no.

Or, are you just expecting Spearmaster’s report on your codes that can settle the crowds’ frustration? I predict that Spear’s final report alone doesn’t explain all (not intended to pour cold water onto Spear’s head).

Then why do I feel all wet Just teasing...

Or, are you just sitting at your back office, praying this will end as soon as possible?

Actually, there was another conference in Miami which I didn't attend. And one of them was in a car crash, already back home but obviously feeling very sore and awaiting test results, but not back in office yet.

Or, are you planning to do something solidly more, than the code release alone, to our surprise, to save your already damaged reputation?

Answer us. Since you’re not willing to come forward, emailing Bryan or Ted will do.

See above. Naturally I think they should come forward but given the circumstances I don't blame them if they won't.

I don't think they are trying to convince players to give them a second chance. They have already written us off.

They are more interested in getting affiliates on board to attract new players. Eventually this thread will disappear into the depths of CM archives, and the new players won't have a clue.

This is not the case as far as I know. They had a separate issue with affiliates a couple years back which caused most of us to drop them, but nothing which would have affected players.

[derelict]

If you're going to make a claim, back it up with some evidence. You can't just shout "Fire!" and expect everyone to believe you when there isn't even any smoke present.

I don't expect anything to come of it based on his statement alone, but I do actually believe this player encountered an improbable house advantage in this game and understand his reasons for not disclosing his information. Considering this game was actually proven to be unfair recently, I think your statement about prior data being irrelevant is completely out of line.

You can say you never cheated on your wife/gf/bf/significant other, and when caught claim it is a one-off after a heavy drinking session. Should you be required to produce all the people you have met in the past to verify that you didn't do anything strange with them too just to prove that it indeed was a one-off - or do you think admitting your mistake and allowing the evidence of the current issue to be examined is the right way to go?

I think this is a poor analogy. To me a more appropriate one would be "You find an unauthorized transaction on your credit card statement. Should you check previous months and see if there are more suspect charges?"

Let me state one LAST time - I am trying to get to the bottom of the non-randomness of the doubling game during the period in question - NOTHING else. It's bad enough that I'm being sidetracked by a million (gee, maybe I better go count just to make sure) other things entirely unrelated to this issue.

If you think it would be productive, perhaps you should focus on that and provide something solid that supports your claim. No offense, but I think you would be fare better if you could come up with something plausible and verifiable to back up your conclusions.

My feeling is that because there's no way to force them to turn anything over, and no way to verify the authenticity of what they provide, that there will be no conclusive results from any investigation other than the one that thelawnet started with his post which proved conclusively that the game was unfair during the testing period. As far as I'm concerned there was nothing more for them to say after the game was proven unfair, the subsequent fix, and the subsequent denial.

[Linus]

I don't think they are trying to convince players to give them a second chance. They have already written us off.

They are more interested in getting affiliates on board to attract new players. Eventually this thread will disappear into the depths of CM archives, and the new players won't have a clue.

They have avoided roguedom at CasinoMeister and WoO. Mission accomplished.

I suspect that about sums it up.

Fortunately for them, they weren't accused of scraping.