Mathematical Proof that English Harbour is cheating

[mitch]

Originally Posted by spearmaster

Mitch - in answer to your questions, the glitch affected all EH group casinos, and possibly a small number of bets elsewhere, as the gaming server is the same. All coding is controlled by the software provider and the casino operators do not have access to this code.
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Cheers Spear

I think you are are doing a great job on this issue. I have a fairly clear picture of what has gone on here thanks to your efforts.

Of course it's not possible to be 100% certain about events, Odds On could be supplying you with duff code in support of a convoluted story.

However, I am not going to go with the conspiracy theory here.

I prefer the risk reward theory. ie Why would Odds On risk a huge proportion of their business on a scam that would only give them a small rise in their profits?

I can't convince myself that they are so stupid!

Perhaps they are, and this cannot ever be proved 100%, however I will go with the opinion of yourself and the Meister on this issue. You have met the people involved here and you are experienced enough to see through any BS.

People posting, questioning yours and the Meisters integrity, should be ashamed of themselves IMO.

It's possible you might not be right in fact, but I am utterly convinced you are right in principle.

Mitch

[gfkostas]

Why oddson didnt test the game for randomness in the first place?

[Macgyver]

Some of you need to learn some tact, for Pete's sake ...

You act like you're paying spearmaster to look at this code. The man's doing it, on his own free time, out of his desire to make his own decision about the matter and impart that decision to the forum. He's probably spent more time responding to people's comments on here than he has evaluating the code.

If you disagree with his methods and/or findings, that's your right. What isn't your right is to attack the man's character because of that disagreement.

Learn some maturity ... crap like "NEE NAW BAD ANSWER" is simply childish. Just those four words alone made me gloss over what factual information and conclusions may have been after it. How do you expect an informed discussion of the matter when it feels like a grade school in this thread?

Personally, I'm surprised spear hasn't told y'all to jump in the lake by now. He's got a lot more patience with your antics than I'm having right now.

[soflat]

It seems like every piece of evidence that is (slowly) surfacing is more and more damning.

[ftg]

I am very very confused......

I respect Spearmaster and I won't question his integrity.

However, I do find it unconvicing at all for the whole thing. The more information is given out, the more questions are in my mind and the more I don't believe it's just a mistake. (Error on the codes is there, as Spear has been explaining. I have no problem in believing it.)

[vinylweatherman]

No-one seems to have noticed that the bonus game, while with weighted "cards", was designed to offer the chance to win a multiplier, and at worst half the doubling win would be returned. Depending on the weights used, this may turn out to be a fair 50/50 game, but with much higher variance. I can see why a casino would consider offering this, with it's chance for a 10x win, on a game such as VP doubling, which is a straight forward double or nothing shot.
We should not expect this variation to be rushed out soon, I am sure they will be quadruple checking this code before they release it, as they must realise that another screw-up with this particular piece of code is not an option!
I expect that the value of the card would have been the multiplier, and perhaps face cards were taken as a multiplier of 0.5 The deck would probably weight heavily in favour of Deuces & Faces, and the 10 would hardly ever appear. It might have been better to use a weighted deck of numbers, with the casino logo where the suit was. This would make it clear that this was no ordinary card based game.
If they get this bonus game right, it may actually be worth a try.

[spearmaster]

I will need to double check on the actual period which was tested - I assumed that it was January 1 as a starting point and May 2 as a finishing point.

Mitch and MacGyver, thanks for your kind words.

Vesuvio - I don't believe that there would be an intent to deliberately mislead players as to the randomness of the cards, based on how the bonus game operates. The value of the multiplier is not contingent only on the value of the card, but also on the suit. The weighting across suits, however, is exactly even. That is to say - a 2 of clubs is the worst card worth 0.5x - but a 2 of spades would be worth 4.5x multiplier - yet they carry exactly the same weight. You would theoretically have a better chance of drawing a 2 of spades than a 3 of clubs (worth 0.65 multiplier).

Thelawnet - your proposition is not viable. You already indicate an obvious drop of play in the period in question - yet it is not correct to assume that this lower amount of play can be applied across the preceding period when the game was normal. The total number of hands played from the beginning of the year is probably much higher than you used for your testing - and only dropped off dramatically when people started losing more often.

vwm - the weightings decrease proportionately starting from the highest weight for a deuce to the lowest for an ace. The suit, however, does play a role, but there are no differences in weighting across suits. A 2 of clubs carries equal weight to any other 2, and an Ace of clubs carries equal weight to any other Ace.

Nevertheless - it does look like an interesting game worth trying provided that it is clear that the cards are not evenly weighted. We will have to wait and see, however, when - if ever - this game is introduced. I wouldn't mind giving it a run myself, the thought of doubling a win for $10 and then getting a bonus game which either cuts my win to $5, or increases it to $50, or somewhere in between, definitely appeals to me.

[atherm]

I've been following this thread sporadically up until now. I just spent a ridiculous amount of time reading the entire thing straight through and I believe that those who have been reading this day by day, taking in each new development in turn have become detached from the clear and obvious facts that have been present since the beginning. This detachment is somehow allowing for each of you to entertain the casinos "glitch" story. Lets break this down, plain and simple for one last time.

1. Player discovers he is not being dealt a fair doubling game
2. Collaboration from other players confirm this beyond anything but the most absurd mathematical doubt
3. Suddenly, just a couple days after his thread starts, the game is being dealt fair again
4. Theories are created, acusations made, and investigations begin
5. Casino first denies that the game was not fair, then eventually claims that a software glitch (all be it an elaborate one backed by an almost believable story)
6. Readers\Players, even ones who had predicted from the start that the casino would go with a malfunctioning software story, for some reason are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the casino.

These first 5 statements above should not be leading to number 6. But they are! If thelawnnet hadnt caught this then the casino would have "fixed" the software eventually (whether or not is was "broken" intentionally or not is apparently not something that is allowed to commented on here, but use common sense) and then one of two things would have happened depending on what you think
1. The casino had intentionally caused the glitch and obviously wouldnt refund any money
2. The glitch was not intentional, but the casino sure as heck isnt going to notify its players and refund their money once they notice it and fix it.

Unfortunately for the casino, option 3 happened, and all they can do is scramble to save their business.
It is time for brutal honesty. No accusations, insults or assumptions. Just tough truths. Every online casino in the end is just an elaborate tool created to take peoples money, and none of the people who would create such a business could possibly care whatsoever about the well being of their customers. They only care about them enough so that they will remain customers. In the long run we all know that none of us can ultimately win money playing these games. So we have the right to expect absolute perfection on the casinos part if they want our business. Helpful and fast CS, quick\ secure financial transactions, and as weird as it sounds when I say it... every one of their unfair games, needs to be running fair 100% of the time. No game should be made available for the public to play until it is tested so extensively that the casino knows that the game is absolutely being dealt, rolled, spun or drawn exactly as one would expect it to be in a live, fair casino. When there is a mess up like this one they deserve no sympathy, no oppurtunity to make excuses, no second chances. There are hundreds and hundreds of casinos available online today. As far as I'm concerned, English Harbour is no longer one of them.

[spearmaster]

Originally Posted by atherm

No game should be made available for the public to play until it is tested so extensively that the casino knows that the game is absolutely being dealt, rolled, spun or drawn exactly as one would expect it to be in a live, fair casino.

This bonus game was never intended to be live under any circumstances - but somehow the code got uploaded to the live server. I am sure we all agree that no game should ever see the light of day until it is fully tested.

But shit happens - simple as that. No one is making any excuses as to why the game was uploaded - what they are really having to defend against is why that first explanation was so woefully wrong. Had they done a more complete investigation in the first place they wouldn't look so bad. But the code somehow got uploaded, and then they compounded things with that first statement, and they accepted those consequences and of course made restitution above and beyond what should have been required.

Now I'll just get the information out here (soon, I hope) and then you will have all you need to make your own decisions.

[atherm]

Originally Posted by spearmaster

This bonus game was never intended to be live under any circumstances - but somehow the code got uploaded to the live server. I am sure we all agree that no game should ever see the light of day until it is fully tested.

"never intended" , "somehow got uploaded". Not phrases we want to hear associated with cheating\nonrandom\unfair (pick your own adjective if you dont like any of those) casino gaming software.

regardless, you've done a very good job in handling this situation spear.