I could never ever drop trips there on turn at NL20. If he has 33 or A6 then so be it and it's reload time. Against his whole
range you are good more than needed 4/10 times or so. And remember that sometimes it is totally OK to lose a buy-in if both have monster hands.
If you drop trips there for 80 big blinds you will get pushed around a ton and you will lose way too much in non-showdown pots. That kind of playing style is called "weak-tight" style of play, which is typical to micro-small stakes cash players and is very exploitable by skilled, very aggressive but in the same time thinking players, who understand the value of
folding equity.
Now think of a situation that you told him that you folded 62 there to his re-raise on turn. Now let's say he's a skilled, thinking player (like me
). Now he knows that you will drop trips (which is a HUGE hand) with bad kicker to a re-raise on turn. OK, let's play on with keeping this in mind...
Now think is it profitablefor him to re-raise you with
any hand (no pair, no draw hands even) from now on on turn to your raise, if and when he knows that you will lay down even trips to that move? The answer is YES, it is very profitable for him to do that! Let say that 1/10 times about you have a slowplayed set of threes or sixes there and 9/10 times you hold that K6 or worse trips (or somethink like top pair wioth a good kicker) you will lay down to his re-raise. Now 1/10 times he will lose his invested $8.10 re-raising ANY hand on turn there when you call (as a bluff, because he knows you lay down too many hands to that move) and 9/10 times his bluff goes through and he wins your already invested $2.60 because you fold even a very big hand to a re-raise.
Now let's count which one of you makes more money out of each other with your style to play in the long run, shall we?
He makes 9*$2.60 + 1*(-$8.10) =
+$15.30
You make 1*$8.10 - 9*(-$2.60) =
-$15.30
And when you continue to play for years, after 100 hands he has made
+$153 with his "crazy donkey bluffer" style and you have made
-$153 with your "better safe than sorry" style. Pretty surprising numbers, huh?
I think I don't need to say much more? Those 1/10 and 9/10 times are very rough mathematical estimates of the times the hands described will occur (1/10 times you will have A6 or better hand which you'd push there instead of folding if you really put him only on A6 or better there).
I have just written a very brief introduction to a concept of
folding equity in poker and how good players know how to use it as their advantage in the long run to profit, even though once in a while they get caught with a (stupid looking) bluff and they get berated here on the forums as donkeys. In the inside thay laugh with nice winnings in their back pocket.
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Originally Posted by NextToYou
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