INCREDIBLE

[paul1]

On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

Queen and a Ten?



Holdem. Easy game.

[mitch]

Good guess!!

I am so sick about that last tourney. I was the chip leader with 5 left after winning an all in with KK.
A few hands later feeling cocky (and drunk) I bluffed, all in, on an A high flop with nothing, trying to bully the table, and ran into a real, slow played, hand.
A few hands later I called an all in bet with a good but not fantastic hand and was out.
BAD play.

Lesson, don't get too clever!

Mitch

[mitch]

Since my last post I have finished 2nd in a fairly small buy in tourney. (out played!)

Tonight I was in a much bigger tourney with a first prize of $2500 plus a seat at the WPT in Reno.

I was on the final table, 5 left, I was a close 2nd in chips with more than twice the chips of 3rd.

I drew AK and the chip leader went all in. I called and lost. (****) I think I am fated never to win a tourney!

It was the crucial hand and he won the tourney less than 5 mins later.

Was this the correct play or should I have laid down and waited to try and get heads up?

Mitch

[gmblpdam]

Since my last post I have finished 2nd in a fairly small buy in tourney. (out played!)

Tonight I was in a much bigger tourney with a first prize of $2500 plus a seat at the WPT in Reno.

I was on the final table, 5 left, I was a close 2nd in chips with more than twice the chips of 3rd.

I drew AK and the chip leader went all in. I called and lost. (****) I think I am fated never to win a tourney!

It was the crucial hand and he won the tourney less than 5 mins later.

Was this the correct play or should I have laid down and waited to try and get heads up?

Mitch

I would have made the same play in calling virtually any bet with ak 3 handed. Your playing for 1st not 2nd. So I say if you have a chance to accumulate more chips, take it.

[ThePokerprof]

Totally agree, right play with AK IMO.

I have to disagree with this though:

The guy with KK was brave (wrong) to call an all in with an A out there.

Sorry! lol

Sounds like you are doing very well on the MTTs, hang in there, you should finish first soon enough! Good luck.

[BBKPoker]

On the first tourney there were 4 left and I was all in on the flop with AA and a flop of A J 2 (would have made me the chip leader). My opponent had K7 (lol)! Guess what the turn and river cards were?

In the second tourney I was all in with AK and a flop of A A 7. My opponent had A4. Guess what the river card was?

Can any of you maths experts out there tell me what were the combined odds of losing both hands from the flop.

Roughly .21% or once in five hundred times.

Assume no other cards are known and suits are irrelevant (ie no backdoor flushes possible):

Hand 1: AA vs K/7 on flop of A/J/2. No splits are possible. Opponent can only win by catching 8/45 outs on the turn (any queen or ten) then 4/44 outs on the river (whatever card he didn't catch on turn). 32/1980 event or about 1.6%.

Hand 2: AK vs A4 on flop of A/A/7. Lots of splits possible. 7 pairing the board (when an ace doesn't hit) or any running pair will be a split pot. I think the -ev split pot scenarios just about mitigate the +ev value of hitting a king (in which case you win the entire pot) or pairing the 7 (to split a pot) as redraws when your opponent does hit their 4 kicker, so I'm going to basically omit that. Your opponent has 42/45*41/44 chances of missing a 4 on the flop or turn, which is an 86.9% chance of missing and a 13.1% chance of hitting.

The chances of both events happening consecutively are 1.6%*13.1% or just a hair over .21%.

Neither are close to the most unlikely events (the most unlikely individual flop event is flopping top set and losing to a smaller pocket pair hitting running quads or a spread five straight flush draw completing in case you were wondering) but pretty bad all the same.