Question Your help on these observations....

[dunover]

As there's a full moon at the moment I have a need to get you good people to help me with a few things I've noticed:

1. Anyone ever seen more than 10 spaces out of the 15 with wilds at the end of a 12+5 freespins hit on DoA? Is it capped at ten do you think?

2. On BDBA freespins, has anyone had a bonus round which has exceeded the value of 5 sapphires/wilds , i.e. hit say 5 gold bars/wilds and 5 chequebooks/wilds?

3. Has anyone experienced that significantly changing their stake made their game produce results almost immediately which surprised them?

4. For those lucky enough to get a 5-scatter trigger, have you ever won more for the free spins than the 5 scatters that triggered it?

5. Has anyone noticed (like I did the other night on 188bet) that on MG flash games on some sites, like TSII you can tell if the spin will produce a win by the slightly longer spin of the first reel before it stops. I definitely saw this, NOT a foil-hat thing btw! I could tell for example that even though the first 2 reels were non-matching, that I would get a couple of scatters on the last 3 reels by the delay.....basically I pressed spin and knew before any reel had stopped whether it would be a winner or not. Awful experience.

6. Do you find that if on a 'streak' that you win whichever slot you select/change to? Almost as if your peak above the RTP flatline is going to play out whatever game you choose? Almost as if the RNG is acting for you across all games?

Just interested, hope I've hit a chord with some of you.

 

[Balthazar]

1-2) It's important to note that it's not because we've not seen a win that it can't happen.
3) Not with steady regularity, which would be needed to conclude anything.
5) Never happened to me and I'm the kind of guy that would notice this kind of things since I'm always looking for them.
6) Sometimes (rare) I feel like the slot is trying hard to give me some wins (especially on NetEnt). However, 100% of my big wins (1000x+) came from nowhere and the slot was acting normally before giving them (again, I pay attention to those things).

 

[bsilva028]

As there's a full moon at the moment I have a need to get you good people to help me with a few things I've noticed:

1. Anyone ever seen more than 10 spaces out of the 15 with wilds at the end of a 12+5 freespins hit on DoA? Is it capped at ten do you think?

2. On BDBA freespins, has anyone had a bonus round which has exceeded the value of 5 sapphires/wilds , i.e. hit say 5 gold bars/wilds and 5 chequebooks/wilds?

3. Has anyone experienced that significantly changing their stake made their game produce results almost immediately which surprised them?

4. For those lucky enough to get a 5-scatter trigger, have you ever won more for the free spins than the 5 scatters that triggered it?

5. Has anyone noticed (like I did the other night on 188bet) that on MG flash games on some sites, like TSII you can tell if the spin will produce a win by the slightly longer spin of the first reel before it stops. I definitely saw this, NOT a foil-hat thing btw! I could tell for example that even though the first 2 reels were non-matching, that I would get a couple of scatters on the last 3 reels by the delay.....basically I pressed spin and knew before any reel had stopped whether it would be a winner or not. Awful experience.

6. Do you find that if on a 'streak' that you win whichever slot you select/change to? Almost as if your peak above the RTP flatline is going to play out whatever game you choose? Almost as if the RNG is acting for you across all games?

Just interested, hope I've hit a chord with some of you.

1 - never hit a good big win on DOA
2 - never get even 5 sapphires
3 - yes
4 - yes, 2 or 3 times on games where 5 scatter gives good winings, lots of times when 5 scatters give the sam as 3 scatters
5 - usually i dont play mg without be on download version
6 - if i am winning i stay on the same slot, ex: i made a good winning, i continue to bet on the same slot more 10 or 12 spins, if continue wining= continue playing, if not, change to another randomly selected slot, usually when i am winning well on a slot, i change after 10 spins without increase the balance

 

[Jd666]

Number 5... Definately yes when playing ts2 on a flash casino a few months ago.
Also noticed it playing some Net Ent games too.
Especially Jack Hammer doing long and short spins meaning I knew when I was going to get a win and also knew when the sticky spins were going to end

 

[LaHutti]

#3 Absolutely 100% yes. All the time, so I'm not really sure it surprises me any more.. It's how I roll.

 

[SubzeroWins]

As there's a full moon at the moment I have a need to get you good people to help me with a few things I've noticed:

1. Anyone ever seen more than 10 spaces out of the 15 with wilds at the end of a 12+5 freespins hit on DoA? Is it capped at ten do you think?

2. On BDBA freespins, has anyone had a bonus round which has exceeded the value of 5 sapphires/wilds , i.e. hit say 5 gold bars/wilds and 5 chequebooks/wilds?

3. Has anyone experienced that significantly changing their stake made their game produce results almost immediately which surprised them?

4. For those lucky enough to get a 5-scatter trigger, have you ever won more for the free spins than the 5 scatters that triggered it?

5. Has anyone noticed (like I did the other night on 188bet) that on MG flash games on some sites, like TSII you can tell if the spin will produce a win by the slightly longer spin of the first reel before it stops. I definitely saw this, NOT a foil-hat thing btw! I could tell for example that even though the first 2 reels were non-matching, that I would get a couple of scatters on the last 3 reels by the delay.....basically I pressed spin and knew before any reel had stopped whether it would be a winner or not. Awful experience.

6. Do you find that if on a 'streak' that you win whichever slot you select/change to? Almost as if your peak above the RTP flatline is going to play out whatever game you choose? Almost as if the RNG is acting for you across all games?

Just interested, hope I've hit a chord with some of you.

1. I havent hit big on DoA but i'm 100% sure it's not capped. Full screen of wilds is possible
3. Sometimes.. not more than expected by randomness
5. Yea i notice that sometimes on netent slots
6. Definitely, and when this happens it's so obvious im starting to wonder if the slots are truely random (Netent only btw)

 

[catapultaudio]

1- I'm yet to see more than 4 but I guess I need to play the game a whole lot more...

2- Not personally but I'd guess it's possible - afterall, you have other spins in the same round as you hit the rocks, so THAT bonus round will be worth more, so theres no reason a different round couldn't be.. I think?

3- Possibly, though I am sure all gamblers have the same "I'm sure I am due a feature by now, I think I'll up my bet" superstition that will wrongly influence this

4- One thing I really love about IGT games (eg rainbow riches) is that more scatters/triggers = higher paying feature almost without exception. With MGS games my experience has been you have precisely the same chance of a good/bad feature as if you had 3 scatters, BUT... almost definitely just luck talking, I can say I always seem to have rubbish luck from 4 scatters, don't know why that is!

5- I was talking about this "win delay" in the quickfire suite a couple of weeks back, it happens at wintingo too, so definitely not your imagination, it's also noticable in the video poker... kind of sucks to know whether you have won or lost before you actually see the result on screen defo.

6- Really not sure about this one, as I will often switch games if I'm having a really BAD time and often feel my luck improves, so have no reason to think it works differently when I'm winning...

 

[kktmd]

4: 5.263.274 spins, freeplay, 0.30 bet. I got 5 scatters 22 times.

Right column shows the average RTP for this bonustype - I subtracted the win generated by the scatters (so its lower than the numbers I posted previously - including the scatter win, the numbers will be the same). Scatter win is 6000-7500 (depending on game), so in all cases the Scatter win made up the majority of the bonus round win.

Interesting - the win is significantly lower than the average RTP. The big wins will raise RTP significantly - should probably look at Median instead of Average.

BTW: I'm still not convinced that Freeplay behaves like Real play, so take this data with a grain of salt.

Clarification: Each line represents 1 bonus round. Each time I hit 5 scatters to initiate the round.

 

[dunover]

To Balt - I'm not saying at all whether it's possible or not, just is there any evidence of them yet, as they are absent so far from screenies etc.

kktmd I think you've posted that on the wrong thread mate!

Yes, the lag on winning spins on Quickfire is very bad, and knowing when the reels were spinning if the result would be a win or not kind of took the fun out of it for me too. It's akin to having the download version of MG and clicking your balance each spin to know the pay in advance.

No. 3 is controversial as IF it was definitely proven the games were reactionary to stake changes then they would have AWP tendencies, which is NOT what we want, and they shouldn't be. We do know (if you imagine your 95% TRTP flatline) that the payout deviates as you play above and below (winning and losing) that the peaks and troughs are quite pronounced on HV slots and less on LV slots. I wonder what (if any) provisions there are in the algorithm and program details i.e. 'triggers' that you bounce from when at a very high or low peak or trough from the TRTP line? So, if you play 30p spins for 10,000 plays and are at 86% RTP, then bang many spins in at £15 so your current RTP drops like a stone...

No.6 is possibly selective memory as we have streaks and tend to remember them more, especially if we feel we've 'done' slot A, and move to slot 'B' and keep winning.

OK, kktmd, can you possibly bang 100k spins on your MG's at 30p, then raise the stake to £15 and see if anything consistent occurs across the slots? It would satisfy some curious people.....

 

[kktmd]

The screenshot shows the 22 times I got 5 scatters, and the result of the following bonus round (in answer to your question "4. For those lucky enough to get a 5-scatter trigger, have you ever won more for the free spins than the 5 scatters that triggered it?"

Raising stake: I've been wanting to do that, but I would prefer to do it in real play. My feeling is that RTP drops for the 5-10 rounds following a stake increase...but that upsets the "its all random" crowd

 

[dunover]

The screenshot shows the 22 times I got 5 scatters, and the result of the following bonus round (in answer to your question "4. For those lucky enough to get a 5-scatter trigger, have you ever won more for the free spins than the 5 scatters that triggered it?"

Raising stake: I've been wanting to do that, but I would prefer to do it in real play. My feeling is that RTP drops for the 5-10 rounds following a stake increase...but that upsets the "its all random" crowd

Sorry kktmd, I just re read your stats and realized why you posted them....

Raising stake IS real play because that's what people do, as we've heard. If you want to do it, please do, because I certainly would if I had your program to play MG. I think it would be very interesting for you, me and everyone.... We could put any doubts to bed forever..

 

[kktmd]

Raising stake IS real play because that's what people do, as we've heard.....

Ah, sorry...bad wording on my part....I meant I would like to do it using real money (and not just in free play mode - since I'm not sure realplay=freeplay).

When I play with real money, I always raise my stake periodically until I hit the bonus round. In IR, I usually raise my stake every 60 spins, starting with 0.30, moving up to about 1.8.

 

[mathsboy1975]

6. Do you find that if on a 'streak' that you win whichever slot you select/change to? Almost as if your peak above the RTP flatline is going to play out whatever game you choose? Almost as if the RNG is acting for you across all games?

I have noticed that this seems to happen quite a lot - not just for winning streaks but for brutal dead patches too - no matter what slot you move to you still just get taken to the cleaners until the bad run has ended. Sometimes it feels like, as you say, the RNG is operating on your login session rather than what slot you are playing. I am sure that this is just a human perception thing though. I would not be happy at all if I learned that this was the case. I would love for there to be a little more transparency in the way that the slot internals operated. I have no doubt about the fairness aspect of all games but I still believe that it is not all just down to an identical RNG algorithm every time - I certainly think that slots could oscillate between low/normal/high payout operation modes which would still make the games perfectly fair in regards to a backward analysis of random numbers and payouts across a large enough number of spins. I am not conspiracy theorizing here by the way.

 

[vinylweatherman]

I have noticed that this seems to happen quite a lot - not just for winning streaks but for brutal dead patches too - no matter what slot you move to you still just get taken to the cleaners until the bad run has ended. Sometimes it feels like, as you say, the RNG is operating on your login session rather than what slot you are playing. I am sure that this is just a human perception thing though. I would not be happy at all if I learned that this was the case. I would love for there to be a little more transparency in the way that the slot internals operated. I have no doubt about the fairness aspect of all games but I still believe that it is not all just down to an identical RNG algorithm every time - I certainly think that slots could oscillate between low/normal/high payout operation modes which would still make the games perfectly fair in regards to a backward analysis of random numbers and payouts across a large enough number of spins. I am not conspiracy theorizing here by the way.

If there is a pattern, it can be cracked with the right analysis, and like UK Fruit Machines, there would be strategies to enhance the delivered RTP. Finding these "tricks" is not easy, but some players have found them in UK fruit machines and have cleaned up before the operators had a chance to react by "chipping" the machines.

I have taken advantage of a few of these "tricks" over the years, but operators can now react much faster so "tricks" no longer last for months on end after becoming reasonably well known.

 

[mathsboy1975]

If there is a pattern, it can be cracked with the right analysis, and like UK Fruit Machines, there would be strategies to enhance the delivered RTP. Finding these "tricks" is not easy, but some players have found them in UK fruit machines and have cleaned up before the operators had a chance to react by "chipping" the machines.

I have taken advantage of a few of these "tricks" over the years, but operators can now react much faster so "tricks" no longer last for months on end after becoming reasonably well known.

But how could you identify it? Any variations on the delivered RTP during an enhanced/reduced payout period (if it existed) would ultimately be lost over the larger scale behaviour. Like the old days of UK fruit machines that had to be tested over a 10,000 spin period (or was it 100,000) to verify the percentage return on the fruit machine. I was offered a job years ago with Bell fruit machines here in the UK and they told me that the percentage had to be verified by the regulating bodies over a specified number of spins. Assuming a similar regulation for digital slots, and short term fluctuations in overall RTP to enable enhanced/reduced payout would be almost impossible to detect. I cannot see a way that you could mathematically detect this. As for doing it on pub fruit machines the golden rule always used to be "wait until someone fills it up, then put a few quid in"

 

[SubzeroWins]

I have noticed that this seems to happen quite a lot - not just for winning streaks but for brutal dead patches too - no matter what slot you move to you still just get taken to the cleaners until the bad run has ended. Sometimes it feels like, as you say, the RNG is operating on your login session rather than what slot you are playing. I am sure that this is just a human perception thing though. I would not be happy at all if I learned that this was the case. I would love for there to be a little more transparency in the way that the slot internals operated. I have no doubt about the fairness aspect of all games but I still believe that it is not all just down to an identical RNG algorithm every time - I certainly think that slots could oscillate between low/normal/high payout operation modes which would still make the games perfectly fair in regards to a backward analysis of random numbers and payouts across a large enough number of spins. I am not conspiracy theorizing here by the way.

That would actually make it unfair for the casino! Say the slots oscillate, all you'd need to do to beat the casino is play @ huge stakes once you get into a winning streak.. am i right?

 

[mathsboy1975]

That would actually make it unfair for the casino! Say the slots oscillate, all you'd need to do to beat the casino is play @ huge stakes once you get into a winning streak.. am i right?

But how do you know you are "in" a winning streak ? And how much would you have to put in to get there in the first place. I was not saying that I think that this actually happens, just that I can see it being possible. I did emphasise that I was not conspiracy theorising, just thinking aloud based on slot playing pattern observation. Again though, just theorising, IF it was possible to bump RTP up or down temporarily there could always be a trigger that would reset it to "normal" mode upon a change of stake. This is pure speculation though. I guess we will never know until the slot developers release their source code....

 

[dunover]

Not according to the theory of RNG slots. However, let's look at it this way - you are playing through a rough streak, not winning. You suddenly start a winning run. Let's say this winning run on a 1 unit stake would have made your balance go up by 500 units from when it started.. Obviously we can't predict the future, but let's say at this crucial moment you raised your stake to 10 units - would your balance have ended up 5 THOUSAND units up (pro-rata a raise of 500 x 10 credits) or would it have merely raised the same 500 single unit credits i.e. 50x 10 credits? What do you guys think?

PS. Hat sales are slack at the moment so need to shift a few....

 

[dunover]

Ah, sorry...bad wording on my part....I meant I would like to do it using real money (and not just in free play mode - since I'm not sure realplay=freeplay).
When I play with real money, I always raise my stake periodically until I hit the bonus round. In IR, I usually raise my stake every 60 spins, starting with 0.30, moving up to about 1.8.

kktmd - please let's see this. Free play MUST play the same as a paid game, and does we are assured, on MG Netent etc. You've proved this more or less with your multi-million spins on various games - they ALL ended up a gnat's cock away from the advertised TRTP. This should give you confidence we will get the same results as we would for paid play.

 

[kktmd]

Freeplay SHOULD be the same as Real play, although I've never actually seen MG make this promise. I'm pretty sure my lifetime real-money RTP on MG slots is at or above the advertised/expected level, so I'm not one to complain about 'rigged' slots.

But I believe that the game engine that MG uses is much more advanced than just randomizing 5 wheels. I have seen some very unlikely results when playing with real money - often in my favor. For example, I got 13 diamonds in a row, using the gamble feature on BDBA earlier this year. At first I lost (betting black), but I quickly switched to red and won about 10 times in a row (10 different spins - i did not double up 10 times).

When I feel I'm having a bad streak, I'll often load up the same slot in Free play mode and run this in parallel. If the game is truly random, you would expect the real and the free slot to have the same chance of winning each spin.

So one spin on each slot at the same stake - I then register which of the two slots has the highest win each round. Last week I was playing ThunderStruck II and doing pretty poorly - after 70 wins (combined), my distribution was 52/18, meaning that 52 times the win was higher on the demo play, 18 times the win was higher on the real slot. This doesnt really sound bad, but the odds of that are pretty small (about 1 in 30.000). Most often, I'll just close my account and move on.

Anyway, I'm putting about 20k spins an hour on Playboy at the moment - 60 spins at 0.30 followed by 10 spins at 15. The variance will be MUCH higher, but we'll see what happens.

 

[JuicyFruit]

As there's a full moon at the moment I have a need to get you good people to help me with a few things I've noticed.

3. Has anyone experienced that significantly changing their stake made their game produce results almost immediately which surprised them?

Oh yes. Sometimes when I am playing very low stakes, I realise I am winning everything but the kitchen sink (aka Free Spins/Bonus), and the game seems to be telling me....Play High! Play High! So I do, and inevitably I almost immediately get the FS/Bonus. HOWEVER.....if I am having a bad day, then raising the stake....lowering the stake.....having gin on my cornflakes, etc....makes not a blind bit of difference.

6. Do you find that if on a 'streak' that you win whichever slot you select/change to? Almost as if your peak above the RTP flatline is going to play out whatever game you choose? Almost as if the RNG is acting for you across all games?

Again....oh yes. When I am on a roll, it doesn't seem to matter what I play, I win, even on games that are usually my nemesis. One mad day not too long ago at Bet Victor, I was winning huge amounts on Where's the Gold, Pompeii, Ho Ho Ho, and others, and then I switched to Starlight Kiss. As I was on a roll, I upped my stake to £142 ...and immediately got the bonus, which paid over £6000. As I said, that day I could do no wrong.

But equally, as someone else in this thread said, when it is not my day, it is really not my day, and the reverse applies....doesn't matter what game, or what stake I play, it is downhill all the way, which is why I don't understand the mentality of keeping on playing a game, hoping against hope that it will turn in your favour. In my experience, that just doesn't happen.

Usually, that is, but a few weeks ago I was playing Siberian Storm and was onto a loser. In frustration I upped stakes to £25 and immediately hit a biggie (over £8000 - screenshot posted). Then the game went back to being dead again. But I guess this experience actually proves Point 3!

 

[dunover]

Yes, thanks, but I don't think 60@30p then 10@£15 will be right - simply because the 60 spins at 0.30 only add up to £18 before you hit the £15 spins. The results would be meaningless I think?
That's why I suggested a long multi-thousand run at .30 then bumping up to £15 at say 20,000 spins. This would show (any) contrast better.

 

[Jufo]

But how could you identify it? Any variations on the delivered RTP during an enhanced/reduced payout period (if it existed) would ultimately be lost over the larger scale behaviour.

Within a large play data sample you could measure how far apart the big wins are spaced from each. For example you could measure the distance of every 100x+ payout from each other. On a random game the distances will fall under exponential distribution curve. On a fruit machine-type non-random game that forces a certain RTP the distances will be statistically too equally spaced apart.

So there are ways to measure statistically whether a slot is random or whether it has non-random elements but the analysis may require quite large data.

 

[kktmd]

I'll try that setup afterwards....I started 11 slots about an hour ago - starting balance 2000..right now 6 are out of funds, 3 are at about 1000, 1 at about 3000. The last one has taken off and just keeps hitting big hits and bonus rounds - its at 6000 right now.

 

[dunover]

Within a large play data sample you could measure how far apart the big wins are spaced from each. For example you could measure the distance of every 100x+ payout from each other. On a random game the distances will fall under exponential distribution curve. On a fruit machine-type non-random game that forces a certain RTP the distances will be statistically too equally spaced apart.

So there are ways to measure statistically whether a slot is random or whether it has non-random elements but the analysis may require quite large data.

Yes, but this is where I get near the foil-hat line.......are slot programmes 'managed' loosely at all, if they are how and how is this done in conjunction with randomness? Are there any wins not taken into account (the slot is still random and meets it's TRTP over time) like say 11,12,13,14,15 wilds in DoA or 5 reels on IR with sarah/wild on each reel? Are these wins not even factored into the TRTP random no. pool? There's nothing to say it's wrong if they are not, as the advertised TRTP is being produced regardless. What stops a player from having such a terrible run that they say only have a RTP of 45% after 100,000 spins, and what prevents a player having a RTP of 160% after the same? Because we know this doesn't happen. I know part of the answer is win distribution/variance in the RN pool; it would simply be colossally unlikely for someone to have such a long-term bad/good result.