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which is the probability the dealer have 19 followed hands of 20s and 21s in BJ?

Discussion in 'Casino Complaints - Non-Bonus Issues' started by ximo, Nov 1, 2006.

    Nov 1, 2006
  1. ximo

    ximo Dormant account

    Location:
    spain
    That's the question.
    Which is the probability the dealer have 19 followed hands of 20s and 21s in BJ?
     
  2. Nov 1, 2006
  3. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania

    Depends on how many 20's and 21's that follow in successive hands.

    If you're just talking about 3 hands of 19,20,21 in succession, it's quite common and nothing that would indicate a non-fair game.
     
  4. Nov 1, 2006
  5. ximo

    ximo Dormant account

    Location:
    spain
    This was the succession

    20,20,20,20,21,21,21,20,20,20,20,21,21,21,21,20,20,20,20
     
  6. Nov 1, 2006
  7. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    There is roughly a 0.3 chance of the dealer ending at 20 or 21. The probablity of 19 sequential dealer hands with 20+ is roughly 0.3^19 = 1 in 9 billion.

    At which casino did this occur?
     
  8. Nov 1, 2006
  9. hbears341

    hbears341 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    I QUIT
    Location:
    Somewhere
    Almost sounds like my run at BoDog! Man they're games have been tight as anything lately. :mad:
     
  10. Nov 1, 2006
  11. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
    holy shite!

    That's DEFINITELY improbable.

    wtf? Seems to me it's a very unfair game.

    Can you post the game logs? I smell a rigged game. And as asked before, PLEASE post the casino where this happened.

    PS: .3^17 = .00000000129140163 :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2006
  12. Nov 2, 2006
  13. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount.

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
  14. Nov 2, 2006
  15. ximo

    ximo Dormant account

    Location:
    spain
    Ok let me explain a bit more the succession.


    Dealer

    QS,10H-- 20
    QS,10H-- 20
    4C,9D,7C-- 20
    4C,9D,7C-- 20
    JH,4C,AD,6S-- 21
    JH,4C,AD,6S-- 21
    JH,4C,AD,6S-- 21
    8C,5C,7C-- 20
    8C,5C,7C-- 20
    QH,JD-- 20
    QH,JD-- 20
    7D,4S,KC-- 21
    7D,4S,KC-- 21
    JH,AD-- 21
    JH,AD-- 21
    QH,JD-- 20
    QH,JD-- 20
    QS,JD-- 20
    QS,JD-- 20

    you'll notice that most bets were multiplayer BJ from RTG.

    And then I will show you another session dealer bj from the same casino the day before.

    Dealer rtg % rtg

    21----26----14,2
    20----46----25,14
    19----22----12,02
    18----18----9,84
    17----22----12,02
    <17----6----3,28
    PASS--45---23,5
    TOTAL 186 100

    Just bad luck or you think there is something more?
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2006
  16. Nov 2, 2006
  17. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    Multiplayer BJ? You mean that the you played multiple hands while the dealer had one hand, and the hands listed with identical cards above were a single dealer hand?

    If that is the case, then it is really 9 20+ in a row instead of 19. That changes the odds dramatically -- 1 in 50,000.
     
  18. Nov 6, 2006
  19. BBKPoker

    BBKPoker halfway to busto PABrogue3

    Occupation:
    None
    Location:
    Edinburgh, Seattle, Vancouver BC, Auckland
    They are legit:

    You must register/login in order to see the link.
     
  20. Nov 7, 2006
  21. ace4suited

    ace4suited Dormant account

    Occupation:
    various
    Location:
    scotland
    I was down the pub last night playing in a local poker league. Anyway in two hands in a row the flop was 777. The first time I bet on the flop (no river or turn seen) and the second time the turn happened to be 7.

    One of the guys remarked that if this was online we would all be swearing it was rigged. Improbable things happen and this in one off examples is not neccisarily significant.

    If you were to say what were the odds of the dealer getting these hands in the following sequence they would be very low. This does not mean much though

    bust on 23
    bust on 24
    17
    18
    19
    20
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    21
    17
    26
    24
    24
    18
    18

    This doesnt mean its not worth reporting. Occasionally sites are rigged and if people report their dubious logs and lots of people are facing similar issues then its worth investigating further.

    It is worth considering whether the site might be "streaky" rather than rigged and if you do a search on the forum you will see an excellent debate about what being streaky may or may not be, whether it exists and whether it means a site is rigged or not.

    When I encounter what appears to be a negative streak I lower my bet to the minimum and then when I start winning again I up my bets. On some casinos that I feel are streaky I seem to make $$ following these patterns in blackjack. The notion of streakiness is that the %ages for all the outcomes is as it should be BUT rather than being equally / randomly split you can get more of a certain outcome in sequence at a particular time.
     

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