What the chance of getting a 100x buy in feature with 100x stake?

[neon claws]

For simplicity's sake let's say the slot is 100% RTP as is the feature buy.
If it's a $100 feature buy what's the chance of getting a feature naturally with $100 balance doing $1 spins?

 

[4048]

50%, you either get it or you don't.

 

[pinnit2014]

Rigged. When isn't it?

Depends on how much it's been compensated.

 

[satchnz]

50%, you either get it or you don't.

This.

But to address what you actually meant. Pointless question. You’d have to ask the provider what the bonus hit rate was for the particular slot you were playing. Unless I’ve missed the point…

 

[interlog]

Doesn't this depend on how much of the overall RTP of the slot is allocated to the bonus rounds? If it is a high percentage then the bonus would pay out a lot more frequently but if that is the case, then the buy in would be more than 100x the bet size. If you look at the San Quentin slot, a 5 scatter bonus buy costs a lot more than 100x because that bonus usually pays a lot more than 100x

 

[dunover]

It depends on the feature-base game RTP split, the average feature value and the overall RTP. The lower the base game RTP the less likely.

So assuming a 60% base game and 36% feature value on a 96% RTP slot (if you can still find one) you would turn over enough for ($100 bankroll at $1 spins) for 248 spins before busting IF you didn't get a feature.

So if the average feature pay is say $72 you would expect with a 36% RTP allocation for it to land every 200 spins on average, so you would expect it more often than not for the above balance.

If the feature pays $144 on average, you would expect it just under 50% of the time.

It's not an easy question to answer unless you have the game sheet and all the relevant data above on it. It differs for every game. So the whole question is pointless as a general one.

As for the feature buy scenario, if you solely do this and it costs $100 per buy it means you'd have an average return of $96 in the game maths (or $21.2 if playing Bonanza.) This means triggering it naturally would be also be chanced according to the game's base-feature RTP split as I exemplified above. So if your average pay was $96 for the $100 buy and the feature RTP allocation was only 10% you'd expect it approx. every 1000 spins or so (3,670 spins on Bonanza, yes I'm so funny). This would result in a base game RTP of 86% which would be sufficient on $100 balance at $1 spins as turnover for 708 spins on average, so you would not expect a feature most times.

Change the above to say feature allocation of 25% and base game 71% you'd get 342 spins on average, with the feature arriving approx every 400 spins so a near 90% chance each time.

 

[neon claws]

Well so far everyone's posted explanation (although not their vote) is incorrect.
I'll give it a little more time to see if anyone gets the right answer.

 

[neon claws]

Actually wait, now I've confused myself.
Someone good with maths check this logic:
We know(?) based on the Bernoulli process (

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) that we eventually converge around a 63% chance of any random event occurring given an equal number of chances, the more chances and lower probability the closer you get to 63%, eg;
Probability of NOT guessing a random number between:
1-10 with 10 guesses: 34.868%
(0.9^10)
1-100 with 100 guesses: 36.603%
(0.99^100)
1-1mil with 1mil guesses: 36.787%
(etc...)
So that gives us a rough idea that the probability of a random fair event occurring given the equal number of chances required is around 63%
Given that the slot provider has calculated the average payout of the feature as 100x bet and we are working on 100% trtp we can assume average cost to achieve feature is also 100x.
Now it may have been easier to do this with 96% RTP because you can then ascertain that you will have on average 248 chances with a 100x bankroll (see dunovers second paragraph) and so the chance would be 247/248(as a decimal
0.99596774193, not sure why it doesn't work as a fraction)^248 = 36.7% chance of NOT getting the feature and so ~63.3% chance of getting it.. which would seem inline with the initial proposition of 64% on a 100% RTP machine.

I do not believe basegame/freespin RTP split comes into the equation at all.
And it's definitely not 50% because "you either get it or you don't" because then 1 in 2 people would be winning the lotto every night.