What is the worst payout percentage you ever had in a 10-15 day period?

[Jufo]

Thanks Chris, did we ever arrive on a 'ballpark' figure for the number of spins required to safely get close to T-RTP on slots?

(Accepting that even that figure will change massively depending on the variance of the slots played.)

The number of spins you need depends on how close to T-RTP you expect to get and, like you said, of the variance parameter of the slot.

You can approximately estimate how close certain number of spins gets you to T-RTP by using the equation below. SQRT() means square root, N denotes the number of spins and SD is the standard deviation parameter of the slot, which tells you how large variance the slot has. In the great work that Chris did Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) , he listed these standard deviation parameters for each of their slots, something no other software operator has done so far.

1 SD Range = SD/SQRT(N)

The above equation gives a 1 standard deviation range, which says that you will fall within to that range 68% of time and within two such ranges 95% of time.

I'll give an example. Let's take some medium variance slot such as Pinnacle's Lucky Lanterns slot which has SD = 6.1 and T-RTP of 97.45%. This SD parameter is also close to large number of Microgaming slots, so this calculation applies to very many typical medium variance slots.

If you play 1000 spins then the 1 SD range from the equation above is:

1 SD Range = 6.1/SQRT(1000) = 0.193 = 19.3%

This means:

68% of time your RTP after 1000 spins is within 19.3% of T-RTP
95% of time your RTP after 1000 spins is within 38.6% of T-RTP

So it doesn't look very promising after 1000 spins. Let's increase spins to 10 000:

68% of time your RTP after 10000 spins is within 6.1% of T-RTP
95% of time your RTP after 10000 spins is within 12.2% of T-RTP

Then for 100 000 spins:

68% of time your RTP after 100000 spins is within 1.9% of T-RTP
95% of time your RTP after 100000 spins is within 3.8% of T-RTP

And finally for 1000 000 spins:

68% of time your RTP after 1000 000 spins is within 0.61% of T-RTP
95% of time your RTP after 1000 000 spins is within 1.22% of T-RTP

So in short, if you want a 95% chance of falling within 1% of T-RTP then on a typical medium variance slot it takes more than 1 000 000 spins to arrive there.

However, what skiny wrote in post #14:

Even if you spun a million times and kept track of your RTP the entire time a thousand other people are playing the same game so the game could be paying 97% and unlucky you is only running 82%.

Having a 82% RTP over 1 million spins is practically impossible. The above equation indicates that this would be a (97% - 82%) / 0.61% = 24 Standard deviation result. Even a 5 Standard Deviation result equals odds of 1 in 3.5 million so it easy to see that this sort of result is mathematically impossible - or the game is blatantly rigged.

 

[Jasminebed]

I made a mistake in an eariler post, inferring that the comps awarded influenced RTP. They only influence Return to Me. But if I have free money to play on, the TRTP does not change, just my own losses.

I play quite a bit, and have for years. I could ask 32Red for my stats, but I know what my average count is in the monthly Slotmeister approximately. It's usually in the neighbourhood of 40K, and that's with winning spins, so more likely around 25K worth of spins per month.

Slots like Thunderstuck have over over 5 million possible outcomes.

That would be 200 months of gambling, or 16 years.

I'm not saying it's a bad idea to play where the odds are better. I live in Ontario the good where penny slots pay back 82%, I do much better online.

There is NO guaranted RTP. Even the house with millions of spins only has a TRTP.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

There is NO guaranted RTP. Even the house with millions of spins only has a TRTP.

Did you read Jufo's post above Jasmine?

You don't need any sort of in-depth understanding of mathematics to grasp that T-RTP WILL be achieved over a certain number of spins, by the time you get to a million spins the chances of it not having been achieved are absolutely and ridiculously minuscule - to the extent that you say it is a mathematical certainty.

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Edit again I have been corrected, see Jufo's post below.

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With all due respect I don't understand why folks are having a hard time with this concept, but I can state as an absolute, irrefutable, cold, hard fact that T-RTP IS the guaranteed RTP.

T-RTP is guaranteed RTP over a certain number of spins. The end.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

Having a 82% RTP over 1 million spins is practically impossible. The above equation indicates that this would be a (97% - 82%) / 0.61% = 24 Standard deviation result. Even a 5 Standard Deviation result equals odds of 1 in 3.5 million so it easy to see that this sort of result is mathematically impossible - or the game is blatantly rigged.

Expressed as a '1 in x' chance, what is a 24 standard deviation result please Jufo?

 

[Jufo]

Expressed as a '1 in x' chance, what is a 24 standard deviation result please Jufo?

Excel says it is 1 in 7 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000. The odds are about the same as winning lottery main prize 18 times a in a row with just one ticket each time. So you don't have to worry about that happening any time soon

 

[Jufo]

Did you read Jufo's post above Jasmine?

You don't need any sort of in-depth understanding of mathematics to grasp that T-RTP WILL be achieved over a certain number of spins, by the time you get to a million spins the chances of it not having been achieved are absolutely and ridiculously minuscule - to the extent that you say it is a mathematical certainty.

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EDIT - As per Jufo's post below, the chances of a fairly standard medium variance video slot NOT having reached its T-RTP within one million spins is 1 in 7 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000.

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No Chopley the above minuscule odds were the odds of having 82% RTP after 1 million spins in a slot that pays 97%. I just showed how false that skiny's statement was. This wasn't the odds of not having reached T-RTP.

You could have, say, 96% RTP (1% below T-RTP) after 1 million spins. In fact calculation shows that there would be about 5% of being 1% or more under T-RTP after 1 million spins, and a 90% chance of being within 1% of T-RTP.

 

[ChopleyIOM]

No Chopley the above minuscule odds were the odds of having 82% RTP after 1 million spins in a slot that pays 97%. It wasn't the odds of not having reaching T-RTP. You could have, say, 96% RTP (1% below T-RTP) after 1 million spins. In fact calculation shows that there would be about 5% of being 1% or more under T-RTP after 1 million spins, and a 90% chance of being within 1% of T-RTP.

Ahhh right fair enough thanks for clearing that up Jufo

I assume my basic point remains however that the more spins you make, the closer to T-RTP you will achieve, and at some point you'll hit a number of spins whereby the T-RTP is effectively a mathematical certainty.

 

[Jufo]

I assume my basic point remains however that the more spins you make, the closer to T-RTP you will achieve, and at some point you'll hit a number of spins whereby the T-RTP is effectively a mathematical certainty.

Yes, the more trials (spins) you perform the closer and closer your RTP will be to the T-RTP. However, you are not really quaranteed to reach it precisely, you will only get closer and closer to it, unless you play infinite number of spins.

What you are referring to is also know as the

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.

so instead of arguing you can simply quote that article.

The article above says for example:

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game.

 

[skiny]

Did you read Jufo's post above Jasmine?

You don't need any sort of in-depth understanding of mathematics to grasp that T-RTP WILL be achieved over a certain number of spins, by the time you get to a million spins the chances of it not having been achieved are absolutely and ridiculously minuscule - to the extent that you say it is a mathematical certainty.

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Edit again I have been corrected, see Jufo's post below.

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With all due respect I don't understand why folks are having a hard time with this concept, but I can state as an absolute, irrefutable, cold, hard fact that T-RTP IS the guaranteed RTP.

T-RTP is guaranteed RTP over a certain number of spins. The end.

Not over a CERTAIN number of spins. That would not be random. The answer is over an UNDETERMINED amount of spins. That is how random works. What you are doing is proving that if you play a game LONG enough eventually you will hit the T-RTP. That is not a guarantee that every player will hit it unless every player is willing to continue spinning until they finally, eventually do.

And since the T-RTP is less than 100% that in itself would be completely pointless. Unless your goal was to lose 3% of your money.

Now for the last time let me put this common sense answer one last way and maybe you will stop repeating that every person is guaranteed a theoretical RTP since every one knows that it's a eventual certainty but nobody knows if it will take 10 thousand spins or 10 million.

I'll pretend to play a game with you. You can choose which game.

You can pick a number between 0 and 100 and if you win I'll pay you x amount of dollars when I get around to it and if there's a problem with the game I won't be in a big hurry to be helpful in fact I'll probably act like it's your fault.

OR

You pick a number between 0 and 103 and I'll pay you the same money (x amount of dollars) and if you win I'll gladly pay you with no hassles as quickly as I can and if you have any problems I'll be as helpful as I can in solving them because it's really probably not your fault.

Which game would you prefer?

I have said right from the start that your CHANCES are better if you play a game or at a casino with a higher RTP but that by no means guarantees that you'll be better off in the long run for a whole number of different reasons and the only way you can be guaranteed the theoretical RTP is to persistently play it until it finally gets around to happening through the law of averages. So you finally managed to be 3% in the hole. I can do that in 1 deposit. I don't need a million spins to get there.

 

[Nifty29]

Unfortunately it is now apparent that skiny will just repeat the same totally flawed argument regardless of any and all facts presented by any and all members.

The silliest part is that he is suggesting that every casino with higher TRTP pays slower than those with lower TRTP which is another flawed argument.

What skiny is saying is that he trades off fast payouts for lower a lower chance of getting a payout in the first place. No problem there, except that it doesn't change anything in regards to the mathematics involved in TRTP.

For those interested in facts, consider how real series slots achieve their TRTP......it is controlled by how many stops and particular symbols on each reel. Change one reel by removing or replacing a stop, and you change the TRTP for the game. Let's use an example of a slot that requires 3 scatters to trigger a bonus round. In casino A, there is one scatter on each reel except for the last which has two. In casino B, there is one scatter on each reel. The TRTP of casino A is higher due to a higher bonus trigger rate.

Skiny says there is no difference between casino A and casino B because he will never play enough spins to reach TRTP and because he plays at various casinos and thousands of others are playing etc.......but I have just demonstrated that your chances of WINNING (not just reaching exact TRTP) is LOWER from the very first spin at casino B. You don't have to play a million spins to feel the effects of a lower TRTP, which is why skinys argument (?) is totally flawed.

 

[Tirilej]

Unfortunately it is now apparent that skiny will just repeat the same totally flawed argument regardless of any and all facts presented by any and all members.

The silliest part is that he is suggesting that every casino with higher TRTP pays slower than those with lower TRTP which is another flawed argument.

What skiny is saying is that he trades off fast payouts for lower a lower chance of getting a payout in the first place. No problem there, except that it doesn't change anything in regards to the mathematics involved in TRTP.

For those interested in facts, consider how real series slots achieve their TRTP......it is controlled by how many stops and particular symbols on each reel. Change one reel by removing or replacing a stop, and you change the TRTP for the game. Let's use an example of a slot that requires 3 scatters to trigger a bonus round. In casino A, there is one scatter on each reel except for the last which has two. In casino B, there is one scatter on each reel. The TRTP of casino A is higher due to a higher bonus trigger rate.

Skiny says there is no difference between casino A and casino B because he will never play enough spins to reach TRTP and because he plays at various casinos and thousands of others are playing etc.......but I have just demonstrated that your chances of WINNING (not just reaching exact TRTP) is LOWER from the very first spin at casino B. You don't have to play a million spins to feel the effects of a lower TRTP, which is why skinys argument (?) is totally flawed.

I say it again Nifty...please don't write as if someone is less intelligent than you. Any other member doesn't think like you, so don't say that, and I'm still one of them

I still feel as if what you are talking about is the games own TRTP and not ours.
For each game it will be achieved, but for us as players it will and should be random.
No matter how many example you present or Jufo's statistic, I still have to say that in my mind my picture of how it works stand.
If you will like to call me stupid, stubborn or whatever, I can tell you I'm not. I would just say that I see it in a different way.

 

[Silencio]

I say it again Nifty...please don't write as if someone is less intelligent than you. Any other member doesn't think like you, so don't say that, and I'm still one of them

I still feel as if what you are talking about is the games own TRTP and not ours.
For each game it will be achieved, but for us as players it will and should be random.
No matter how many example you present or Jufo's statistic, I still have to say that in my mind my picture of how it works stand.
If you will like to call me stupid, stubborn or whatever, I can tell you I'm not. I would just say that I see it in a different way.

Are you a moderator? No.. then I think you shouldn't interfere and let them have their discussion. Some of us actually enjoy reading this.
If Skiny has a problem with how he's addressed, a moderator would tell you he can use the report a post button. Not everyone is as easily offended as you are. And it's no fun having a discussion if we all would be, at least I think so. Not saying it's bad quality per se.. a bad character trait can also be a good character trait at the same time. And vice versa.
And since when is logic a feeling?

 

[Tirilej]

Are you a moderator? No.. then I think you shouldn't interfere and let them have their discussion. Some of us actually enjoy reading this.
If Skiny has a problem with how he's addressed, a moderator would tell you he can use the report a post button. Not everyone is as easily offended as you are. And it's no fun having a discussion if we all would be, at least I think so. Not saying it's bad quality per se.. a bad character trait can also be a good character trait at the same time. And vice versa.
And since when is logic a feeling?

After my post I asked Maxd if I should have reported it instead, and the answer was that I should have, so sorry eveyone for not doing that.

But Silencio, I am in this discussion and have been from the beginning, so if you don't want to read my posts then I suggest you just put me on ignore. If others doesn't want me to interfere I hope they tell me. It will hurt but I would listen.