What is the likelihood of this?

winnington

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Gave the 100% match bonus at bet365 a shot. Played all hands by the book... the result was 5 hands won, 4 push, and 21 losses. Played one $15 hand, all the rest were $5-$10 hands until I was under $10.

Is this within normal variance? Just curious, as I've seen other people here question whether bet365 is fair.









edit: how do I make these images show up? I took screenshots of my bet and hand history.
 

Pulver

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PABaccred
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Tellus
Unlucky, yes, uncommon, no. My worst result in blackjack is 20 hands lost in a row. So these things happen from time to time, thats why it is called gambling. Next time maybe you win 20 and loose 5..
 
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big_mac

Experienced Member
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Nov 10, 2004
Location
uk
The short answer is that is far too small a sample to be sure of anything.

I tried an online probability calculator, and that said about 0.1% (1 in 1,000) which seems plausible.
 

NASHVEGAS

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BJ I assume, Can answer but 30 hands will mean nothing and the question can be calculated several different ways based on how worded iirc:oops:.

Not trying to be a smart ass, would help if you could gather more data but I understand if you may not want to.

BJ Basic Expectation
Win=~48%
Loss=~43%
Tie=~9%

Sorry not answering what I believe you want to know but maybe AKA, or some others will then I assume repeat you need more data. 33 units lost in 100 hands has approx. 1/400 prob. Will calculate though as strictly from memory!!
 
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DaveG39

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Jul 20, 2009
Location
Glendale,CA,USA
BJ I assume, Can answer but 30 hands will mean nothing and the question can be calculated several different ways based on how worded iirc:oops:.

Not trying to be a smart ass, would help if you could gather more data but I understand if you may not want to.

BJ Basic Expectation
Win=~48%
Loss=~43%
Tie=~9%

Sorry not answering what I believe you want to know but maybe AKA, or some others will then I assume repeat you need more data. IIRC, 33 units lost in 100 hands has approx. 1/400 prob. Will calculate though as strictly from memory!!
Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 26 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate :)
 
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winnington

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Yeah, it's a rather small sample. Tried to post more info, except my screenshots were blocked for some reason. The only reason I bothered posting is that I've seen a few other people question the variance at this particular casino. Don't want to seem like a sore loser, I'm just curious.

btw, Pulver, the chances of losing 20 hands straight in bj is pretty close to 1 in 10 million (that's an easy calc). Unless you've played millions of hands of bj, I'd definitely be questioning the fairness of whatever casino that happened at... assuming it's online.
 

winnington

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Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 31 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate :)
Thanks Dave. Small sample aside, given other users feedback with similar experiences there, I won't be depositing there again.
 

NASHVEGAS

Banned User - flamming, disrespecting admin,
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Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 31 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate :)
Should have removed after I calculated:thumbsup: and of course rule assumptions were made. Could have been Bakky and not BJ:D.......30 hands IIRC, LOL!!:)
 

Pulver

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Sorry for getting my facts wrong in my previous post. I checked through some old posts I have at a different gambling forum and found out that I lost 12 hands, had 1 push and then lost another 6.

Anyways, if you play enough spins on the roulette, or hands at the blackjack table, strange things will hapen that makes you ponder. But I have also been very lucky sometimes. These things can go both ways.
 

NASHVEGAS

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Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 26 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate :)
Dave, I did not calculate the above but if pushes thrown out then ~52%/~48% as am sure you know. Gotta love that 48%, can't make up it's mind;)
 

DaveG39

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Thanks Dave. Small sample aside, given other users feedback with similar experiences there, I won't be depositing there again.
yw, btw,to clarify, that 1/30,000 number is the chance of winning exactly 5 hands out of 26. The more important number is probably the probility of winning 5 hands or less, which is about 1/24,000.
 

DaveG39

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Glendale,CA,USA
Dave, I did not calculate the above but if pushes thrown out then ~52%/~48% as am sure you know. Gotta love that 48%, can't make up it's mind;)
OK, I found the actuals on WoO

Win =~ 42.5%
Tie =~8.5%
Loss=~ 49%

Although I'm sure this will vary depending on the house rules.

Winnington's original example of 5 wins (or less) out of 26 non-ties then becomes a 1/2650 shot.
 

winnington

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My knowledge of statistics isn't great, but from what I know that's the chances of this happening regardless of sample size. The odds are adjusted accordingly to the size of the sample (i.e. if the sample size were doubled and I had double the wins, the odds would not be the same, they would be much worse).

This was my run from start to finish, it's not like a grabbed the worst section of a longer run.

Seems fishy to me, but not impossible of course.
 

Jasminebed

Game old gal
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Mar 13, 2008
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Ontario
Not a blackjack pro, and I'm not sure of the particulars of the BJ variant (how many decks, etc), but you made at least one mistake in failing to hit A2 against dealer Q, and played other than basic strategy in not hitting soft 18 against dealer 10 spot on another hand.
 

jas2587

Ueber Meister
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Location
FL
Given these probabilities (ty Nash) for wins and losses (ties push and aren't calculated), and using the formula from Wizard of Odds used to calculate such things, I get approximately 1/30,000 of this happening, but 26 hands is a very small sample.

P.S. IIRC..please translate :)
pssstttt if I am correct it is

If I recollect Correctly
could be remember also

Nash has a way with words:D

Cindy:rolleyes:
 

TOC

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Earth
It appears that you kept hitting on 16 three times, that's a no no! You had a 7 & 9 house cards which is 16 and you kept pressing your luck. 16 is a great bust card for the house, normally. It might have not turned out to be a good run but at a quick glance some basic 21 norms were overlooked. My 2 cents..:)
 

shiftyy

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erdely
online casino

You like the online casino, you like the poker? here you are place : *snip*
 
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