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what is the chance of this happening?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by jpsartre, Nov 1, 2004.

    Nov 1, 2004
  1. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    Location:
    Denmark
    I played multi-hand BJ, three hands at a time with 1 unit per hand. After wagering 490 units I was down 97 units. What's the chnace of that happening? Seemed like a horrible, horrible session but maybe it's not that rare....

    Fun fact: At one point I was dealt 5 Aces in a row with 2 more on the table...

    By the way, The Wizard has the house-edge for the software I was playing at 0.4%
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2004
  2. Nov 1, 2004
  3. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    I'm starting to actually HATE blackjack....
     
  4. Nov 1, 2004
  5. frafi

    frafi Full Member

    Occupation:
    typesetter
    Location:
    Germany
    why do you play so long? Would it be not better to stop when they give you such bad cards and come back later?
     
  6. Nov 1, 2004
  7. Lukas85

    Lukas85 Dormant account

    the probabilty of losing 102 units in 500 hands is 0.01% so it should be around that figure....

    what casino was it?
     
  8. Nov 1, 2004
  9. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    Location:
    Denmark
    Frafi:

    What makes you think I didn't stop several times? (As it happens, I did) Anyway, I don't believe it matters, at least not if the game is random.

    Lukas85:

    Is that taking account that I was playing 3 hands at a time? The varince must be higher than if I played 490 hands in single-mode.
     
  10. Nov 1, 2004
  11. Lukas85

    Lukas85 Dormant account

    oops, sorry, havent taken that into consideration!
     
  12. Nov 2, 2004
  13. DeMango

    DeMango Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Postal Clerk, Residential Contractor
    Location:
    Englewood, FL USA
    Playing more than one hand online makes no sense whatsoever with the increase in variance. Double your bet instead of playing two hands and so on. And in the case of MG, their multihand game has 5 decks and is at -.65% There are reasons for playing more than one hand but that is for land casinos under certain card counting situations.
     
  14. Nov 2, 2004
  15. Vesuvio

    Vesuvio Dormant account

    Location:
    UK
    I've often wondered about this - wouldn't a session playing 2 $1 hands multi-handed have a lower variance than a session betting single $2 hands :what: I do play multi-handed at some casinos as a compromise between playing quickly and keeping the variance low, but maybe I'm mistaken?
     
  16. Nov 2, 2004
  17. GrandMaster

    GrandMaster Ueber Meister CAG

    Occupation:
    Mathematician by day, online gambler by night.
    Location:
    UK
    The variance of betting 1 unit each on 2 hands is less than the variance of betting 2 units on 1 hand. At most casinos you can play single-hand and multi-hand BJ with the same rules and same house edge.

    Back to the original question, if you bet 1 unit each on 3 hands, the standard deviation is about 2.63. 490 units would be about 150 games, the standard deviation is 2.63 times square root 150 is about 32, so jpsartre is down by just under 3 standard deviations, the probability of this is about 1 in 700.
     
  18. Nov 2, 2004
  19. frafi

    frafi Full Member

    Occupation:
    typesetter
    Location:
    Germany
    init random generator

    jpsartre:

    I have the experience that - when things going bad - it is better to stop.
    After a new login the random number generator will be new initiated and you will have a better change to go out of the valley.
     
  20. Nov 2, 2004
  21. gfkostas

    gfkostas Ex-Bonus Whore

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    UK
    Tell me about it dude :oops:
     
  22. Nov 6, 2004
  23. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    Location:
    Denmark
    Just played another session at their sistercasino. Same strategy as before, 3 hands at a time, 1 unit on each. Down 101 units after playing 750 units. Together with the other session (I havent't played there in the meantime) this makes me down 198 units after plaing 1240 units.....
     
  24. Nov 6, 2004
  25. sw2003

    sw2003 Dormant account

    Location:
    somewhere :)
    So you went to another casino with the exact same horrible software (for BJ anyway) ? You haven't had enough at the first casino?
     
  26. Nov 7, 2004
  27. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    Location:
    Denmark
    Please don't patronize me. If you read my post in this and other forums you'll know that I'm not one to scream rigged software just because I have a bad session. That's why I tried to find out if how rare my first experience was. It was not an accusation of rigged software, just a question asked out of curiosity. I'm still not sure the software is horrible - I had both good and bad runs before, just never bad runs like this.

    And by the way, I play there because they offer monthly bonuses so I'm still up overall.
     
  28. Nov 7, 2004
  29. jpsartre

    jpsartre Dormant account

    Location:
    Denmark
    Fair is fair - just played another session of 750 units and ended up 4 units. So it's not horrible all the time....
     
  30. Nov 7, 2004
  31. DeMango

    DeMango Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Postal Clerk, Residential Contractor
    Location:
    Englewood, FL USA
    Can we be told where one in 700 events take place?
     

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