what is the chance of this happening?

jpsartre

Dormant account
I played multi-hand BJ, three hands at a time with 1 unit per hand. After wagering 490 units I was down 97 units. What's the chnace of that happening? Seemed like a horrible, horrible session but maybe it's not that rare....

Fun fact: At one point I was dealt 5 Aces in a row with 2 more on the table...

By the way, The Wizard has the house-edge for the software I was playing at 0.4%
 
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frafi

Full Member
PABnonaccred
why do you play so long? Would it be not better to stop when they give you such bad cards and come back later?
 

Lukas85

Dormant account
jpsartre said:
I played multi-hand BJ, three hands at a time with 1 unit per hand. After wagering 490 units I was down 97 units. What's the chnace of that happening? Seemed like a horrible, horrible session but maybe it's not that rare....

Fun fact: At one point I was dealt 5 Aces in a row with 2 more on the table...

By the way, The Wizard has the house-edge for the software I was playing at 0.4%
the probabilty of losing 102 units in 500 hands is 0.01% so it should be around that figure....

what casino was it?
 

jpsartre

Dormant account
Frafi:

What makes you think I didn't stop several times? (As it happens, I did) Anyway, I don't believe it matters, at least not if the game is random.

Lukas85:

Is that taking account that I was playing 3 hands at a time? The varince must be higher than if I played 490 hands in single-mode.
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Playing more than one hand online makes no sense whatsoever with the increase in variance. Double your bet instead of playing two hands and so on. And in the case of MG, their multihand game has 5 decks and is at -.65% There are reasons for playing more than one hand but that is for land casinos under certain card counting situations.
 

Vesuvio

Dormant account
DeMango said:
Playing more than one hand online makes no sense whatsoever with the increase in variance. Double your bet instead of playing two hands and so on.
I've often wondered about this - wouldn't a session playing 2 $1 hands multi-handed have a lower variance than a session betting single $2 hands :what: I do play multi-handed at some casinos as a compromise between playing quickly and keeping the variance low, but maybe I'm mistaken?
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
DeMango said:
Playing more than one hand online makes no sense whatsoever with the increase in variance. Double your bet instead of playing two hands and so on. And in the case of MG, their multihand game has 5 decks and is at -.65% There are reasons for playing more than one hand but that is for land casinos under certain card counting situations.
The variance of betting 1 unit each on 2 hands is less than the variance of betting 2 units on 1 hand. At most casinos you can play single-hand and multi-hand BJ with the same rules and same house edge.

Back to the original question, if you bet 1 unit each on 3 hands, the standard deviation is about 2.63. 490 units would be about 150 games, the standard deviation is 2.63 times square root 150 is about 32, so jpsartre is down by just under 3 standard deviations, the probability of this is about 1 in 700.
 

frafi

Full Member
PABnonaccred
init random generator

jpsartre:

I have the experience that - when things going bad - it is better to stop.
After a new login the random number generator will be new initiated and you will have a better change to go out of the valley.
 

jpsartre

Dormant account
Just played another session at their sistercasino. Same strategy as before, 3 hands at a time, 1 unit on each. Down 101 units after playing 750 units. Together with the other session (I havent't played there in the meantime) this makes me down 198 units after plaing 1240 units.....
 

sw2003

Dormant account
jpsartre said:
Just played another session at their sistercasino. Same strategy as before, 3 hands at a time, 1 unit on each. Down 101 units after playing 750 units. Together with the other session (I havent't played there in the meantime) this makes me down 198 units after plaing 1240 units.....
So you went to another casino with the exact same horrible software (for BJ anyway) ? You haven't had enough at the first casino?
 

jpsartre

Dormant account
Please don't patronize me. If you read my post in this and other forums you'll know that I'm not one to scream rigged software just because I have a bad session. That's why I tried to find out if how rare my first experience was. It was not an accusation of rigged software, just a question asked out of curiosity. I'm still not sure the software is horrible - I had both good and bad runs before, just never bad runs like this.

And by the way, I play there because they offer monthly bonuses so I'm still up overall.
 

jpsartre

Dormant account
Fair is fair - just played another session of 750 units and ended up 4 units. So it's not horrible all the time....
 

DeMango

Dormant account
Can we be told where one in 700 events take place?
 
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