What are the chances of this?

Casinomeister

Forum Cheermeister
Staff member
Perhaps some of you mathheads can figure the odds on this:

I hit this at Phoenician the other day. I held an Ace, and look what I got :D
 

Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
ooh-er: nice hit CM :)

(4/47 x 3/46 x 2/45 x 1/44) / 3 attempts

(I think)

...so that would make it (4,280,760 / 24) / 3

making it a ...

1 in 59,455 chance

...according to my calcs :eek2:
 
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bpb

Banned User - repeated violations of rule 1.14 (tr
PABnonaccred
PABnorogue
Nice Hit!

Your chances of drawing 4 perfect cards here are
(4/47*3/46*2/45*1/44) = .0000056 = 1 in 178,365

Since you had 3 chances to do this, your chances of hitting at least 1 royal flush were

1-(1-(.0000056))^3 = 1 in 59,455

On 100 play, that drops to 1 in 1,784


Edit: Simmo beat me to it
 

bewitch

Dormant account
Ever since you hit your first RF. They just keep coming to you. I think I need a :drink: to balance my "jealous" feeling LOL~

Okay, you are buying me a birthday cake in Vegas. :D
 

spearmaster

RIP Ted
Yippee! I did a Meister!

I was so tired of him getting all the good hands - and Simmo too - that I started playing, and was a bit sick of it and ready to throw in the towel as well.

It's not exactly drawing 4 to a royal, but it's nearly as good as far as I'm concerned :)



BTW, the cashout by Neteller took all of three minutes. Phoenician is still on top of their game :)
 
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caruso

Banned User - repetitive violations of 1.6 - troll
Always nice to hit deuce quads, but that's a really horrible game there. Double the house edge and double the variance of JOB.

There are some RTGs that offer DWFP (single line low denom) - definately worth going for over that one. It beats me why they don't all offer those kind of games (100%+) at low stakes; they can't be hurt, would probably still make money on poor play and it's good advertising. Yet only one of them does, and it ain't Phonecian. Most RTG pay tables are just ripoff jobs.
 

spearmaster

RIP Ted
Agreed about the odds - I looked at some of the paytables and they just sucked miserably.

But I was a bit bored of playing slots and wanted to mess around a bit - tried the double bonus types and didn't do so hot so decided to let it go on Deuces Wild.
 

Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
spearmaster said:
Agreed about the odds - I looked at some of the paytables and they just sucked miserably.

But I was a bit bored of playing slots and wanted to mess around a bit - tried the double bonus types and didn't do so hot so decided to let it go on Deuces Wild.
You;ll get a much better expected return on Microgaming's DW Multi-hand SM (99.37%)...but still a nice hit. Didn't realise i'd left you any 2's ;)

3 Minutes to NETeller!!! Jeez. I've been waiting 11 days for $1500 from one casino...ouch!
 

spearmaster

RIP Ted
LMFAO...

5 hands later...

<edit - GRRR - didn't copy it right! - held one deuce and got dealt three more on one of the hands>

Thank you again, Trident Lounge! And to think the FIRST hand after the last one I had three pat deuces and couldn't get a 4th... LOL...
 
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Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
Damn my last post got chopped half way through....here's the rest of it..

"Anyway SM if you take up my advice and play MG casinos and get 4 deuces the commission i take is 50% of any win if it is over and above 319"

So - I'll PM you my NETeller account ID SM :D


PS (i hate you! I mean..."nice hits" ;) )
 
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spearmaster

RIP Ted
Actually, I've always known that the MGS DWPP is extremely good odds for the player - for example, the difference between a wild Royal at RTG and at MGS is a whopping 100 coins... (125=RTG, 225=MGS) - and 4 deuces another 250 (1000=RTG, 1250=MGS) - so truthfully it is almost stupid to play at RTG - and I never do, but Meister got me going LOL.

Lately I've been favoring the slots, but PP has been pretty good to me over the past month though no royals or 4 deuces until today.
 

sw2003

Dormant account
spearmaster said:
Actually, I've always known that the MGS DWPP is extremely good odds for the player - for example, the difference between a wild Royal at RTG and at MGS is a whopping 100 coins... (125=RTG, 225=MGS) - and 4 deuces another 250 (1000=RTG, 1250=MGS) - so truthfully it is almost stupid to play at RTG - and I never do, but Meister got me going LOL.

Lately I've been favoring the slots, but PP has been pretty good to me over the past month though no royals or 4 deuces until today.

Is it true the MG has the best VP payout games? I have compared the paytable of VP between MG, RTG and BM, MG seems to be the best of the bunch for VPs.
 

jpm

Dormant account
Well I couldn't catch the 4 deuces, but I suppose this will do... (would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)
 

Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
jpm said:
Well I couldn't catch the 4 deuces, but I suppose this will do... (would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)
Nah...still only a 22% chance of you doubling your money. I'd have taken it and run like you :) Nice hit jpm. Can i use this in my Winner Screenshot gallery?
 

spearmaster

RIP Ted
Nothing wrong with 2250 guaranteed coins :) Very hard to toss the deuce... I would have agonized for ages about that. But in the end, the chance of you catching the natural is still not that good - though of course you could always catch another deuce to replace the one you tossed.

I'd have kept it... and wondered for days whether I made the right decision or not :)

sw, I'm not the expert around here - but on the whole I'd say that MGS has the best VP, except when a few RTGs set their paytables up to the highest levels.
 

Simmo!

Moderator
Staff member
spearmaster said:
sw, I'm not the expert around here - but on the whole I'd say that MGS has the best VP, except when a few RTGs set their paytables up to the highest levels.
RTG casinos can set their own paytables true, but 've never come across an RTG VP table that beats the best. The best ones are Cryptologic "Double Bonus" (99.94%), MG JoB (99.54%) and MG's "Aces & Faces" (99.37%). Aces & Faces & Double Bonus are obviously higher-variance but reward with bigger payouts (Double Bonus = 4200 for an RF, 750 for 4 Aces, 450 for 4oak 2,3 or 4s and 250 for other 4oaks). Also, with Crypto giving 0.1% cashback, that makes optimum strategy play over 100%!
 

largeeyes

Dormant account
You're going to find this incredible, but I found a full pay 8/5 JoB. Be the Dealer(the finally let me back....lol). The jackpot for 5 coins Royal is now $2291.43 and growing. That makes it a 100.3% return according to Wizard of Odds calculator. You also earn dealer points you can use to be the dealer for it. I made hundreds off that because people apparently don't know the first thing about basic JoB strategy.
 
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