# What are the chances of this?

#### Casinomeister

##### Forum Cheermeister
Staff member
Perhaps some of you mathheads can figure the odds on this:

I hit this at Phoenician the other day. I held an Ace, and look what I got

ooh-er: nice hit CM

(4/47 x 3/46 x 2/45 x 1/44) / 3 attempts

(I think)

...so that would make it (4,280,760 / 24) / 3

making it a ...

1 in 59,455 chance

...according to my calcs

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Nice Hit!

Your chances of drawing 4 perfect cards here are
(4/47*3/46*2/45*1/44) = .0000056 = 1 in 178,365

Since you had 3 chances to do this, your chances of hitting at least 1 royal flush were

1-(1-(.0000056))^3 = 1 in 59,455

On 100 play, that drops to 1 in 1,784

Edit: Simmo beat me to it

WTF!!!

Dude, you buying my sushi in Vegas... sheesh!

Ever since you hit your first RF. They just keep coming to you. I think I need a to balance my "jealous" feeling LOL~

Okay, you are buying me a birthday cake in Vegas.

Yippee! I did a Meister!

I was so tired of him getting all the good hands - and Simmo too - that I started playing, and was a bit sick of it and ready to throw in the towel as well.

It's not exactly drawing 4 to a royal, but it's nearly as good as far as I'm concerned

BTW, the cashout by Neteller took all of three minutes. Phoenician is still on top of their game

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Always nice to hit deuce quads, but that's a really horrible game there. Double the house edge and double the variance of JOB.

There are some RTGs that offer DWFP (single line low denom) - definately worth going for over that one. It beats me why they don't all offer those kind of games (100%+) at low stakes; they can't be hurt, would probably still make money on poor play and it's good advertising. Yet only one of them does, and it ain't Phonecian. Most RTG pay tables are just ripoff jobs.

Agreed about the odds - I looked at some of the paytables and they just sucked miserably.

But I was a bit bored of playing slots and wanted to mess around a bit - tried the double bonus types and didn't do so hot so decided to let it go on Deuces Wild.

spearmaster said:
Agreed about the odds - I looked at some of the paytables and they just sucked miserably.

But I was a bit bored of playing slots and wanted to mess around a bit - tried the double bonus types and didn't do so hot so decided to let it go on Deuces Wild.

You;ll get a much better expected return on Microgaming's DW Multi-hand SM (99.37%)...but still a nice hit. Didn't realise i'd left you any 2's

3 Minutes to NETeller!!! Jeez. I've been waiting 11 days for \$1500 from one casino...ouch!

Funny you should say that, Simmo!

Thank you Trident Lounge!

LMFAO...

5 hands later...

<edit - GRRR - didn't copy it right! - held one deuce and got dealt three more on one of the hands>

Thank you again, Trident Lounge! And to think the FIRST hand after the last one I had three pat deuces and couldn't get a 4th... LOL...

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Damn my last post got chopped half way through....here's the rest of it..

"Anyway SM if you take up my advice and play MG casinos and get 4 deuces the commission i take is 50% of any win if it is over and above 319"

So - I'll PM you my NETeller account ID SM

PS (i hate you! I mean..."nice hits" )

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Actually, I've always known that the MGS DWPP is extremely good odds for the player - for example, the difference between a wild Royal at RTG and at MGS is a whopping 100 coins... (125=RTG, 225=MGS) - and 4 deuces another 250 (1000=RTG, 1250=MGS) - so truthfully it is almost stupid to play at RTG - and I never do, but Meister got me going LOL.

Lately I've been favoring the slots, but PP has been pretty good to me over the past month though no royals or 4 deuces until today.

spearmaster said:
Actually, I've always known that the MGS DWPP is extremely good odds for the player - for example, the difference between a wild Royal at RTG and at MGS is a whopping 100 coins... (125=RTG, 225=MGS) - and 4 deuces another 250 (1000=RTG, 1250=MGS) - so truthfully it is almost stupid to play at RTG - and I never do, but Meister got me going LOL.

Lately I've been favoring the slots, but PP has been pretty good to me over the past month though no royals or 4 deuces until today.

Is it true the MG has the best VP payout games? I have compared the paytable of VP between MG, RTG and BM, MG seems to be the best of the bunch for VPs.

Well I couldn't catch the 4 deuces, but I suppose this will do... (would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)

jpm said:
(would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)

Hard to say, but I think I would have dumped it.

jpm said:
Well I couldn't catch the 4 deuces, but I suppose this will do... (would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)

Nah...still only a 22% chance of you doubling your money. I'd have taken it and run like you Nice hit jpm. Can i use this in my Winner Screenshot gallery?

Nothing wrong with 2250 guaranteed coins Very hard to toss the deuce... I would have agonized for ages about that. But in the end, the chance of you catching the natural is still not that good - though of course you could always catch another deuce to replace the one you tossed.

I'd have kept it... and wondered for days whether I made the right decision or not

sw, I'm not the expert around here - but on the whole I'd say that MGS has the best VP, except when a few RTGs set their paytables up to the highest levels.

spearmaster said:
sw, I'm not the expert around here - but on the whole I'd say that MGS has the best VP, except when a few RTGs set their paytables up to the highest levels.

RTG casinos can set their own paytables true, but 've never come across an RTG VP table that beats the best. The best ones are Cryptologic "Double Bonus" (99.94%), MG JoB (99.54%) and MG's "Aces & Faces" (99.37%). Aces & Faces & Double Bonus are obviously higher-variance but reward with bigger payouts (Double Bonus = 4200 for an RF, 750 for 4 Aces, 450 for 4oak 2,3 or 4s and 250 for other 4oaks). Also, with Crypto giving 0.1% cashback, that makes optimum strategy play over 100%!

You're going to find this incredible, but I found a full pay 8/5 JoB. Be the Dealer(the finally let me back....lol). The jackpot for 5 coins Royal is now \$2291.43 and growing. That makes it a 100.3% return according to Wizard of Odds calculator. You also earn dealer points you can use to be the dealer for it. I made hundreds off that because people apparently don't know the first thing about basic JoB strategy.

largeeyes said:
You're going to find this incredible, but I found a full pay 8/5 JoB.

Isn't that a contradiction in terms Largeeyes? So is it just the RF thats been adjusted to make it a high ER ?

Simmo! said:
Isn't that a contradiction in terms Largeeyes? So is it just the RF thats been adjusted to make it a high ER ?

Yes. The royal flush is like 9000 coins instead of the normal 4000. This continues to rise until someone wins it. THey don't have many people playing it, so it just creeps up every day. I think 8/5 is like 95-96% return, so it took a while for it to get to full pay. Would I recommend playing it? No......but it is full pay by definition

Chill said:
Hard to say, but I think I would have dumped it.

Wow! That takes brass ones I think. :notworthy

I think about it for about 10 seconds, then hit deal real fast before I change my mind and regret it. Though you'd have about 14 cards out of 47 to give you a winning hand of some sort (from str8 to RF), I just didn't want to risk the sure thing. Might be better odds of taking the pat hand and then doubling it.

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Simmo! said:
Nah...still only a 22% chance of you doubling your money. I'd have taken it and run like you Nice hit jpm. Can i use this in my Winner Screenshot gallery?

Sure Simmo, be my guest!

jpm said:
Wow! That takes brass ones I think. :notworthy

I think about it for about 10 seconds, then hit deal real fast before I change my mind and regret it. Though you'd have about 14 cards out of 47 to give you a winning hand of some sort (from str8 to RF), I just didn't want to risk the sure thing. Might be better odds of taking the pat hand and then doubling it.
Holding all card is the correct strategy. It pays out 225, the expected payout if you discard the 2 is only about 105.

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