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What are the chances of this?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Casinomeister, Sep 13, 2004.

    Sep 13, 2004
  1. Casinomeister

    Casinomeister Forum Cheermeister Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Homemaker
    Location:
    Bierland
    Perhaps some of you mathheads can figure the odds on this:

    I hit this at Phoenician the other day. I held an Ace, and look what I got :D
     
  2. Sep 13, 2004
  3. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    ooh-er: nice hit CM :)

    (4/47 x 3/46 x 2/45 x 1/44) / 3 attempts

    (I think)

    ...so that would make it (4,280,760 / 24) / 3

    making it a ...

    1 in 59,455 chance

    ...according to my calcs :eek2:
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2004
  4. Sep 13, 2004
  5. bpb

    bpb Banned User - repeated violations of rule 1.14 (tr PABnorogue PABnonaccred

    Location:
    Haverhill
    Nice Hit!

    Your chances of drawing 4 perfect cards here are
    (4/47*3/46*2/45*1/44) = .0000056 = 1 in 178,365

    Since you had 3 chances to do this, your chances of hitting at least 1 royal flush were

    1-(1-(.0000056))^3 = 1 in 59,455

    On 100 play, that drops to 1 in 1,784


    Edit: Simmo beat me to it
     
  6. Sep 14, 2004
  7. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    WTF!!!

    Dude, you buying my sushi in Vegas... sheesh!
     
  8. Sep 14, 2004
  9. bewitch

    bewitch Dormant account

    Location:
    Home, sweet home
    Ever since you hit your first RF. They just keep coming to you. I think I need a :drink: to balance my "jealous" feeling LOL~

    Okay, you are buying me a birthday cake in Vegas. :D
     
  10. Sep 14, 2004
  11. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    Yippee! I did a Meister!

    I was so tired of him getting all the good hands - and Simmo too - that I started playing, and was a bit sick of it and ready to throw in the towel as well.

    It's not exactly drawing 4 to a royal, but it's nearly as good as far as I'm concerned :)

    [​IMG]

    BTW, the cashout by Neteller took all of three minutes. Phoenician is still on top of their game :)
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2004
  12. Sep 14, 2004
  13. caruso

    caruso Banned User - repetitive violations of 1.6 - troll

    Occupation:
    Casino apologist
    Location:
    England
    Always nice to hit deuce quads, but that's a really horrible game there. Double the house edge and double the variance of JOB.

    There are some RTGs that offer DWFP (single line low denom) - definately worth going for over that one. It beats me why they don't all offer those kind of games (100%+) at low stakes; they can't be hurt, would probably still make money on poor play and it's good advertising. Yet only one of them does, and it ain't Phonecian. Most RTG pay tables are just ripoff jobs.
     
  14. Sep 14, 2004
  15. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    Agreed about the odds - I looked at some of the paytables and they just sucked miserably.

    But I was a bit bored of playing slots and wanted to mess around a bit - tried the double bonus types and didn't do so hot so decided to let it go on Deuces Wild.
     
  16. Sep 14, 2004
  17. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    You;ll get a much better expected return on Microgaming's DW Multi-hand SM (99.37%)...but still a nice hit. Didn't realise i'd left you any 2's ;)

    3 Minutes to NETeller!!! Jeez. I've been waiting 11 days for $1500 from one casino...ouch!
     
  18. Sep 14, 2004
  19. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    Funny you should say that, Simmo!

    Your wish is my command.

    [​IMG]

    Thank you Trident Lounge!
     
  20. Sep 14, 2004
  21. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    LMFAO...

    5 hands later...

    <edit - GRRR - didn't copy it right! - held one deuce and got dealt three more on one of the hands>

    Thank you again, Trident Lounge! And to think the FIRST hand after the last one I had three pat deuces and couldn't get a 4th... LOL...
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2004
  22. Sep 14, 2004
  23. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    Damn my last post got chopped half way through....here's the rest of it..

    "Anyway SM if you take up my advice and play MG casinos and get 4 deuces the commission i take is 50% of any win if it is over and above 319"

    So - I'll PM you my NETeller account ID SM :D


    PS (i hate you! I mean..."nice hits" ;) )
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2004
  24. Sep 14, 2004
  25. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    Actually, I've always known that the MGS DWPP is extremely good odds for the player - for example, the difference between a wild Royal at RTG and at MGS is a whopping 100 coins... (125=RTG, 225=MGS) - and 4 deuces another 250 (1000=RTG, 1250=MGS) - so truthfully it is almost stupid to play at RTG - and I never do, but Meister got me going LOL.

    Lately I've been favoring the slots, but PP has been pretty good to me over the past month though no royals or 4 deuces until today.
     
  26. Sep 15, 2004
  27. sw2003

    sw2003 Dormant account

    Location:
    somewhere :)

    Is it true the MG has the best VP payout games? I have compared the paytable of VP between MG, RTG and BM, MG seems to be the best of the bunch for VPs.
     
  28. Sep 15, 2004
  29. jpm

    jpm Dormant account

    Well I couldn't catch the 4 deuces, but I suppose this will do... (would anyone have dumped the deuce and tried for the natural?)
     
  30. Sep 15, 2004
  31. Chill

    Chill Dormant account

    Location:
    Norway
    Hard to say, but I think I would have dumped it.
     
  32. Sep 15, 2004
  33. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    Nah...still only a 22% chance of you doubling your money. I'd have taken it and run like you :) Nice hit jpm. Can i use this in my Winner Screenshot gallery?
     
  34. Sep 15, 2004
  35. spearmaster

    spearmaster RIP Ted

    Occupation:
    Devil's Advocate
    Location:
    Heaven
    Nothing wrong with 2250 guaranteed coins :) Very hard to toss the deuce... I would have agonized for ages about that. But in the end, the chance of you catching the natural is still not that good - though of course you could always catch another deuce to replace the one you tossed.

    I'd have kept it... and wondered for days whether I made the right decision or not :)

    sw, I'm not the expert around here - but on the whole I'd say that MGS has the best VP, except when a few RTGs set their paytables up to the highest levels.
     
  36. Sep 15, 2004
  37. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    RTG casinos can set their own paytables true, but 've never come across an RTG VP table that beats the best. The best ones are Cryptologic "Double Bonus" (99.94%), MG JoB (99.54%) and MG's "Aces & Faces" (99.37%). Aces & Faces & Double Bonus are obviously higher-variance but reward with bigger payouts (Double Bonus = 4200 for an RF, 750 for 4 Aces, 450 for 4oak 2,3 or 4s and 250 for other 4oaks). Also, with Crypto giving 0.1% cashback, that makes optimum strategy play over 100%!
     
  38. Sep 15, 2004
  39. largeeyes

    largeeyes Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Engineer
    Location:
    North America
    You're going to find this incredible, but I found a full pay 8/5 JoB. Be the Dealer(the finally let me back....lol). The jackpot for 5 coins Royal is now $2291.43 and growing. That makes it a 100.3% return according to Wizard of Odds calculator. You also earn dealer points you can use to be the dealer for it. I made hundreds off that because people apparently don't know the first thing about basic JoB strategy.
     

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