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What 95% RTP truely means....

Discussion in 'Slots Discussion' started by tataru, Apr 22, 2015.

    Apr 22, 2015
  1. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    I've read a few posts where it's obvious the posters do not understand what
    the RTP does.
    They seem to think that when they deposit 100$, with a 95% RTP, on average they'd get
    get back 95$ - long term.
    Alas, this is not true at all.
    If you think this way, it may lead to very bad decision making.

    Now, how does the RTP work?
    It may seem to be a small or no difference (to the idea above) at first but trust
    me, it's a HUGE difference.

    Every dollar you wager, -long term- you'd get back 95%.
    Let's take the 100$ deposit from above. If you wagered 100$, eg. 100 x 1$ bet or
    200x50$, you'd get back 95$.

    100$ * 95% = 95$


    Ok, but now you'want to play a few more spins, at least if you are like me:D
    Let's take the amount we have statistically left: 95$.
    So, this means you'd take the 95$ and wager another 95 bets of 1$.
    Again, you'd be returned 95%.

    95$ * 95% = 90.25$


    See? After betting close to 200$ our RTP is just shy above 90%.
    Of course the RTP per single bet is fixed and is 95% the RTP for your
    deposit continually decrease.... everytime.

    What results do you have to expect, if you'd deposit 100$ and
    did 500 1$ bets? (The same holds true for any equivlant amount doing
    different denomination bets, eg. 250 2$ bets or 1000 50cent bets)

    100$ * 95% = 95$

    95$ * 95% = 90.25$

    90.25$ * 95% = 85.74$


    Ok, after betting 285$ were down to an expected return of 85.74$ on our 100$deposit.
    Let's see what happens if we gamble some more...

    85.74$ * 95% = 81.45$

    81.45$ * 95% = 77.38$


    So betting an additional 167$, totalling 452$, we're down to an expected
    return of 77.38$ for our 100$ deposit.
    Obviously our bankroll dwindles, being slowly degisted by the slot.
    Let's hope he feels satiated:eek:

    I just wanted to clarify to some that the RTP of XX % is often very misunderstood.
    As you can see, someone who believes a 95% RTP will result in getting
    95% of his deposits back is gravely mistaken.
    If this is still not clear to you, i'd be happy to answer your questions.
    I think it's very important to understand the meaning of the RTP.

    I hope this helps;)
     
  2. Apr 22, 2015
  3. ugaboga

    ugaboga Casino Addict

    Occupation:
    Information Technology, Day Trader
    Location:
    Australia
    I thought RTP is based on the machine life and not a player's lifetime. Take a land based casino, the slot machine is set to 95% via the ROM. Now if a player plays and wins with 200% RTP, eventually the machine will have to adjust itself to get back to 95%. So the next player may be unfortunate.

    So it's misleading when people say 95%. Who is going to be playing at the same machine, for their entire life, to achieve the 95%? Hence why people complain on here they had 30% RTP, well another player might have had 140% RTP and hence you paid for their winnings. Such is life, someone has to lose for someone else to win.
     
    2 people like this.
  4. Apr 22, 2015
  5. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    My point is, in a nutshell: If you believe deposting amount and RTP have
    a relationship as explained in my OP you are sorely mistaken and will most likely
    try to chase "what's yours" even though it's not (statistically speaking).
    -> You expect too much!
     
  6. Apr 22, 2015
  7. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    uk
    The term Return To PlayerS would be more accurate. Since it's more about what the slot will pay, overall to ALL players, than to the individual. Although that doesn't mean EVERY player will get 95%. Just that 95% or all the money from all the players, should in theory, be paid back to the players. Someone could have a 'lifetime' RTP of 70% while another player could have 120%
     
    2 people like this.
  8. Apr 22, 2015
  9. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    My point remains valid though.
    It's important to realize that one typically bets ones deposit multiple times, thus inreasing
    the house edge per deposit dollar.

    This is no spectular insight, to be honest, but I have to recall this to myself every so often.
    Otherwise I get to feel that a machine "owes" me an we all know that is bad news. :lolup:
     
  10. Apr 22, 2015
  11. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    uk
    But also a winning session doesn't necessarily mean your next session will be a losing one, and a 'personal' rtp on slots can be more flexible than on other games.
    My lifetime RTP at Betat is currently at just over 100%, it has been as low as 85% and as high as 130%, and that's over a couple of years and 100's of deposits.

    What  95% RTP truely means....: ScreenHunter_155 Apr. 22 15.30.jpg,Apr 22, 2015
     
  12. Apr 22, 2015
  13. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    Ja, sure, of course things like happen because of the variance.
    It's the difference between probability and frequency of occurence.

    I'd like to try my luck today rather than tomorrow, but alas, I'm out
    of gambling money. If ijust had a 10er :(

    Yesterday I played up to 50 bucks on a 10EUR deposit but did not cash out.
    You all know what happened to my wins :(

    :D
     
  14. Apr 22, 2015
  15. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    Could have saved yourself the bother of all that typing!

    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56164

    This is a bit more detailed and shows the difference to length gameplay and potential losses just a mere drop in TRTP between games can have...

    P.S. You are not differentiating between RTP and TRTP. RTP can be fluid and thus leads to variations which obviously means some do far better or worse than your example.

    Your example is actually based on TRTP. Basically if you bet $1 on a slot and hit each reel permutation in turn once then stopped, you would receive exactly the stated TRTP back.

    You are confusing the cash balance effect of RTP with RTP itself - of course the longer you play the bigger proportion of your deposit will be eaten by the 5% house edge, we know that! However, in your example even if the player busts out of his $100 deposit, he has had 95c back for each dollar he spent during playing, so did get a 95% RTP!

    Let's say the TRTP was 99.9% - the player keeps playing but will still bust out eventually as the 0.1% house edge eats the $100 deposit. When he's bust out, his RTP would have been 99.9%. Going by your mistaken logic it would be 0%!!

    I'm sure one of the reps will put you straight. RTP is NOT worked out by what you have left of your deposit, but by total value of spins you had, minus total amount of wins you had. So, say your $100 deposit lasted for 1000x$1 spins, and you had wins of $900 you would have busted out with a RTP of 90% If you had wins of $960 you would have lost $40 and had a RTP of 96%.

    To suggest we don't understand what RTP does is quite a thing to say - it's obvious that you yourself have got a bit twisted on the subject!
     
    7 people like this.
  16. Apr 22, 2015
  17. Wild Reels

    Wild Reels Meister Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    if you have wagered 200$ and have a balance $90.25 that means over the course of 200 spins you have lost $9.75 giving you an overall rtp 190.25/200 x 100 = 95.125%

    and the slot is behaving as it should do, use rtp as a quick guide to whether its worth playing, there are some nasty online slots in the lower regions of 90%, and some as high as 98% i only use this as a guide of whether its worth playing it, after that its your balance in a session that matters and it hopefully being more than you started with :) chasing slots to improve rtp is futile, you just wagered more money to improve a figure that if its still below 100% means youve probably lost even more along the way.
     
  18. Apr 22, 2015
  19. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    You are right of course. I noticed that my post wasn't clear but was too lazy to rewrite :rolleyes:
    SORRY

    So what's the T in TRTP?
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Apr 22, 2015
  21. Jono777

    Jono777 Meister Member CAG mm4 mm1

    Occupation:
    Self- Employeed
    Location:
    Wolverhampton
    True (or ACTUAL) return to player

    *See posts below, mistake admitted *holds hands up* :D
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2015
    1 person likes this.
  22. Apr 22, 2015
  23. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    'Theoretical'.

    It's based on the reel permutations occurring once each. Say the number of reel permutations on a slot is 1.5 million on a 5-reel game. These results add up to 1.35 million dollars if you got each result once on a $1 spin. Therefore you spent $1.5 million getting $1.35 million back. Therefore the TRTP is 90%.

    Of course we never play that amount of spins on any game, normally just a few thousand or tens-of-thousands. Therefore most of us will see 81% or 88.3% or 97.9% or 104.6% i.e. we've all taken a chunk of results from those available. If you're lucky you randomly picked a positive chunk which yielded a profit, or like most of us a crap chunk which means you lose a few hundred playing those few-thousand spins....

    Unless you're Rolastan who has played 42.34 billion spins on Dead Or Alive and seems to have a RTP of 300%...:D:D
     
    5 people like this.
  24. Apr 22, 2015
  25. tataru

    tataru Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    NOT playing slots
    Location:
    germany
    What you say is opposite idea of T(rue)RTP!

    I guess there is no common definition of it.
     
  26. Apr 22, 2015
  27. Wild Reels

    Wild Reels Meister Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Its always been theoretical as far as I'm concerned, it most cases when we are talking about slot rtp we most likely should be saying trtp but we don't out of habit :)
     
    2 people like this.
  28. Apr 22, 2015
  29. Jono777

    Jono777 Meister Member CAG mm4 mm1

    Occupation:
    Self- Employeed
    Location:
    Wolverhampton
    Thanks Guys, My bad :notworthy
     
  30. Apr 23, 2015
  31. nikantw

    nikantw Ueber Meister MM PABaccred

    Occupation:
    A bit of this and that
    Location:
    EU
    RTP is (total wins)/(total bets). Has nothing to do with deposits. You lose everything if you play long enough! :cool:
    If you think 95% is low, try to be forced to play with 40%, because it is the only "legal"!

    But what I want to know is this. What about bet size? Even in the long term, nobody makes the same amount of bets on every bet size. For most people, there would be small bets mostly, and a few big ones. There are monthly reports of RTP. I find it hard to believe that in one month, every month, the number of big bets is big enough to make average RTP come "naturaly".

    In theory, an RNG decides how often a winning combination comes, regardles of bet size. But if All the loses are with small bets and all the wins with big ones (gamblers paradise :D) doesnt it change the RTP? It can happen in a short term, like a month. How do they manage to stay close to 95% every month, even the small casinos?
     
    1 person likes this.
  32. Apr 23, 2015
  33. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    This is a question I've often pondered. The only way I can see to make this work out is that each player has their own RTP on any particular game at any particular casino. Otherwise, I don't know.
     
  34. Apr 23, 2015
  35. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    uk
    Not sure what you mean by that, lol
     
  36. Apr 23, 2015
  37. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    I.E. Has a single-use of the game's pool of outcomes via his account - not playing the 'same' game as you or me.
     
  38. Apr 23, 2015
  39. brianmon

    brianmon Meister Member webby mm4

    Occupation:
    self-employed
    Location:
    uk
    You might be needing one of your own helmets here, lol

    There's supposedly no such thing as a 'pool of wins' and they're supposed to be completely random, fed from one 'master' RNG, or at least that's how the MGS website makes it sound.

    If there's a pool of wins, does that mean that everyone will eventually get a 5-reel WD?

    well at least someone put plenty of wildlines in my DOA pool, lol
     

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