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Weird BJ history at Bet365

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by El Helado Patat, Dec 10, 2006.

    Dec 10, 2006
  1. El Helado Patat

    El Helado Patat Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Self employed
    Location:
    Bollebygd
    I was playing the flashversion of Bet365 blackjack surrender 3x10$ and lost 860$ after wagering merely 12x460+4x460. Bad luck I know but then i checked with the history and in 180 hands the dealer has got BJ 30 times which means 17% of all hands.

    Isnt the odds of catching a BJ roughly 1/14*4/14? Isnt this very very suspicious?
     
  2. Dec 10, 2006
  3. johnsteed

    johnsteed Ueber Meister

    Occupation:
    N/A
    Location:
    N/A
    ***


    Crazy stuff, and have had similar experiences playing BJ at a PlayTech casino!


    Aside from playing BJ in very short-bursts, I stay away from online BJ. But... Bet365 does have offer "live" BJ. It's slow-as-hell, there's no interaction between you and the other players, but... it's live BJ! :cool: :thumbsup: It sure seems fair, and that's what matters the most to me.


    Sorry about your "luck" with their BJ, as I know, it's awful... but I'm not fussy about any software's BJ (though other's do well... some actually profit), and haven't been for quite some time now. :rolleyes:




    Steed

    ***
     
  4. Dec 10, 2006
  5. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    I added a multi-hand feature to the calc in my signature to estimate this. Assuming I didn't make a mistake, there is a ~2% chance of losing $860 over the course of the wagering. 2% is unlucky, but certainly not statistically impossible.

    The chance of a dealer BJ is 1/13*16/51*2 = .0483. The chance of 30 dealer BJs over 180 hands is on the order of 1 in a billion. This is very suspicious.
     
  6. Dec 10, 2006
  7. tennis_balls

    tennis_balls Dormant account

    Occupation:
    fish n chips promoter
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    are you sure it's one in a billion? 30 BJs in 180 hands is odd, but doesn't seem like a one in a billion occurence to me.

    and this is Playtech software we're talking about, no?
     
  8. Dec 10, 2006
  9. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    For 30 out of 180, I'm getting:
    1 in 2.7 chance of 10+ BJs
    1 in 35 chance of 15+ BJs
    1 in 2,000 chance of 20+ BJs
    1 in 500,000 chance of 25+ BJs
    1 in 350,000,000 chance of 30+ BJs

    However, the wagering described in the orginal post is closer to 250 hands, rather than the 180 that was listed.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2006
  10. Dec 10, 2006
  11. winbig

    winbig Keep winning this amount. webby PABnononaccred

    Occupation:
    Bum
    Location:
    Pennsylvania
    Or percentage-wise:

    The dealer will get 30 BJ's out of 250 hands .000327858124% of the time.

    It's definitely a small sample, but something isn't right here.

    edit: 30 out of 180 hands brings it up to .0000002605207131%.


    edit2: The above numbers are assuming a 4.83% chance of recieving a blackjack, and recieving exactly 30 during that run. I believe the numbers that aka used were "at least" 30. Going by "at least" definitely bloats the numbers; but I'm not sure which calculations would be a better representation.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2006
  12. Jan 10, 2007
  13. thenmh

    thenmh Dormant account

    Occupation:
    employee
    Location:
    home
    I am also finding Bet365 blackjack to be very tough :mad: The first time I played I went from 40 to 500 euros but now everytime I play the dealer OWNS me so quickly eventhough I strictly follow the blackjack strategy at wizardofodds :confused:
     
  14. Jan 10, 2007
  15. tencardcharlie

    tencardcharlie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Bureaucrat
    Location:
    The playboy mansion.
    "at least" definitely. You wouln't find it less suspicios if the dealer got 31 BJ:s instead of 30 I guess.
     
  16. Jan 12, 2007
  17. Rdog

    Rdog Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Canada
    Is it possible the explanation is the 3*$10 bets, implying that what actually occurred was 10 blackjacks in 60 hands. The odds of getting exactly 10 BJs in 60 hands is roughly 1765:1 (rounding odds of a BJ to 5%). The odds of getting at least 10 BJs in 60 hands is even better. Still unlikely and unlucky, but well within the realm of possibility.
     

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