VP Question!

[KasinoKing]

As most of you know - I'm not a big Video Poker player.
But thought I would have a little dabble at deuces wild today.
On my very first hand I got a deuces RF!

But my question is on the below:
The autohold is going for another wild RF, but my instincts say hold the 4oak.

What would 'the experts' do?

(Note: I haven't played out the hand yet!)

 

[vgyhnji]

KK

Don't play much VP but I believe the Wizard would put the 4oak above 4taRF, so my guess is you are correct. I would imagine the thinking is that the 4oak is a guaranteed payout v a possible RF.

 

[Simmo!]

No i'd disagree. The 4-oak gives you 80 coins back but with 5 cards left in the pack to get the DRF, you have a 40% chance (over 4 hands) of getting an extra 180% winnings.

Of course you have chances of 5-oaks off the 4-oak, but this is probably countered by potential 4oaks (aces) off the DRF chance and of course, more than 1 DRF coming up. Whats more, you're guaranteed at least 25% of the 4oak win by going for the DRF as you have 4 lots of 3oak already. If that all makese sense

The DRF for me every time. Actually, the software gives you all the odds if you look at the stats anyway...I'm sure this would back me up!

Cheers

Simmo!

 

[bpb]

You hold the 4 to a royal.

Holding the 4 of a kind gives you a 4/47 chance of 5 of a kind, and a 43/47 chance of 5 of a kind.

Hodling the 4 to a deuces royal gives you a 5/47 chance at the royal, 7/47 chance at a flush, a 5/47 chance at 4 of a kind, 9/47 at a straight, and a 21/47 chance at 3 of a kind.

Expectation of holding 4oak = (4/47)*30+(43/47)*8 = 9.87

Expecatation of going for the royal = (5/47)*90+(7/47)*4+(6/47)*8+(6/47)*4+(20/47)*2 = 12.42


The wizard's guide for deuces wild assumes a full pay table. This pay table has a lower payout for the 4 of a kind, and a higher payout for the wild royal flush.

 

[KasinoKing]

Well, I took the 'experts advice - and the result was not pretty!
Thanks anyway guys!

Those of a nervous disposition may want to look away now!
.

 

[CJack]

From Bob Dancer's WinPoker

Holding the 4 cards to a wild royal - expected return per coin bet = 12.6809
Holding the 4 OAK - the expected return per coin bet = 9.8703

Game return for playing 2 coins = 98.18%
Game return for playing 5 coins = 99.37%

 

[vgyhnji]

Tough do-da KK, I guess the mathematicians would be right in the fullness of time, given the paytable and your ability to see this hand enough times to make it pay!

There is an old adage 'take the money not the risk' that sometimes pays better in the short term.

Meanwhile I'll stick to BJ!