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Video Poker Facts

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by 4 of a kind, Nov 4, 2009.

    Nov 4, 2009
  1. 4 of a kind

    4 of a kind Repeated violations of forum rule 1.16 - troll

    Occupation:
    Trans. Tech
    Location:
    New York
    Interesting facts for the video poke player out there that takes the game serious. This information is part of an article out of Casino Player Magazine.

    Quote
    On the most common machines currently available, the royal adds about 2% to the overall return. So, in effect, youre losing an additional 2 percent to the casino while playing and not getting a royal. That amounts to two dollars for every 100 dollars played through the machine-not an insignificant amount.

    So just how elusive are these lucrative Royal Flushes? How frequently can you expect to be blessed by their appearance? Lets look at the math.

    In a game using 52-card deck with no wild cards, each hand will be made up of:
    ? any of five out of 52 for the first card of the hand
    ? any of four out of 51 (there are 51 cards remaining after drawing the first card and four cards left to draw for the hand) for the second card of the hand
    ? any of three out of 50 for the third card
    ? any of two out of 49 for the fourth card; and one out of 48 for the fifth and final card of the hand.

    That means that there are (52 divided by 5) times (51 divided by 4) times (50 divided by 3) times (49 divided by 2) times 48or 2,598,960 possible hands.

    Of these 2,598,960 hands, exactly four are royal flushes. Dividing the total possible hands by four, a royal flush is one out of 649,740 possible hands. Your odds of being dealt a royal are one in almost two-thirds of a million hands!

    Fortunately, you dont need to be dealt a royal to cash in on a royal. You can discard some of the cards that are dealt and have the discards replaced by new ones. This increases the probability of getting a royal to:
    ? one in approximately 40,000 in Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker or Double Double Bonus Poker
    ? one in approximately 45,000 in the common Deuces Wild games
    ? one in approximately 48,000 in Double Bonus Poker

    These numbers are based on perfect play. As mentioned above, perfect play will maximize the payback of each hand. If you were to change the style of play to favor saving for royals at the risk of losing other more common (but lower) paybacks, the frequency of hitting a royal would increase. Your losses, however, would also increase dramatically.

    OK, so what does all this mean to you?

    Assuming an even distribution of all the possible hands, you should receive a royal every 40,000 to 48,000 hands or so. Some advanced players can play over 1,000 hands per hour with great accuracy. The recreational player probably plays closer to 400-500 hands per hour. At that pace, it will take somewhere between 80 and 120 hours to play 40,000 to 48,000 hands. That is two to three standard 40-hour work weeks of play between royals. You can do the math on your own play to see how many playing sessions it will take to play 40,000 to 48,000 hands-but no matter how you look at it, youre in for a lot of sessions.

    There is another fact you must consider. Royals (or straight flushes, or four-of-a-kinds, etc.) do not appear in an even distribution. You could get two royals back to back, or it might take three, four, five or more times the average before you see a royal. The only thing that remains constant is that youve got a one-in-40,000-plus chance of getting a royal on each and every hand you play.
    ? Be patient. It may be a long time before you see a royal
    ? Play perfect strategy. It will help you extend your time play.
    ? Plan your sessions. Have enough of a bankroll to carry you through the losing cycles.

    Not sure how ? marks got there instead of >
     
  2. Nov 4, 2009
  3. Vegasbum

    Vegasbum Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Teacher
    Location:
    Ontario
    Hitting 5 out of 5 numbers in keno pays the same as a royal. However the odds of hitting 5 in keno happens every 1549 games.

    So if you hit a royal every 40 thousand hands or so that means in 40 thousand games of keno you would hit 5 out of 5 about 25 times.
     
  4. Nov 4, 2009
  5. 4 of a kind

    4 of a kind Repeated violations of forum rule 1.16 - troll

    Occupation:
    Trans. Tech
    Location:
    New York

    That article is about the actual facts of hitting a royal. When the fact of the matter is, while playing the right video poker games correctly, you can cash out more then the royal pay off more often then waiting for the royal. Also note it's usually one of the games banned from bonuses.
     
  6. Nov 4, 2009
  7. pokeraddict

    pokeraddict Webmaster

    Occupation:
    Pro Poker Player
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    While this may be true keno will typically have 20+x the HA 9/6 JOB has.
     
  8. Nov 4, 2009
  9. Vegasbum

    Vegasbum Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Teacher
    Location:
    Ontario
    Video poker is by far the better choice of games. The big difference is that in video poker you can stay ahead with the secondary prizes like 4 of a kind and full houses ect. In keno it is weighted toward the top prize only.

    I realize VP is a much better game to play than keno. I was just comparing the VP top prize to the keno top prize in saying you will hit the keno more often. Overall you will lose much more in keno
     
  10. Nov 4, 2009
  11. Simmo!

    Simmo! Moderator Staff Member

    Occupation:
    Web Dev.
    Location:
    England
    When you look at the expected returns for video poker online compared to keno online, in general the VP offers much better expected returns. A top paying Keno combination will rarely pay more than 94% over the long term, while correctly played VP will rarely dip below 96%. Of course this is dependent on the correct strategy being employed, the variant of VP you are playing and the golden rule of VP - betting maximum coins - but as a generalisation, correctly played VP has to be the better bet over the long term IMO

    Cheers

    Simmo!
     

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