Unlucky.... or rigged?

KasinoKing

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I find it hard to believe that reputable softwares rig their games (why would they need to?), but sometimes I find it even harder to believe I'm getting a truly random game - most especially with Casino Texas Hold'em.

Can anyone work out the odds of the results of hands 2 to 6...?
(All played at $2 ante).

Game: Texas Hold'Em
Starting at [2007/04/22 09:05:06] and lasting for 0:02:22
Total bets: $40.00 No of bets: 6
Result: $-40.00

Hand # 1
Your cards: 4 Spades, 7 Clubs
Your response: Fold

Hand # 2
Your cards: 9 Clubs, Ace Diamonds
Your response: Bet $4.00
Flop: 9 Spades, 9 Hearts, 2 Spades
Your response: Bet $2.00
Turn: 4 Diamonds
Your response: Bet $2.00
River: 6 Spades
Dealer's cards: 5 Clubs, 3 Spades
Your hand: Three of a kind: 9C, 9H, 9S, AD, 6S
Dealer's hand: Straight: 6S, 5C, 4D, 3S, 2S
Your hand wins $0.00

Hand # 3
Your cards: 4 Diamonds, 7 Diamonds
Your response: Bet $4.00
Flop: 6 Spades, Jack Clubs, 7 Hearts
Your response: Check
Turn: 9 Diamonds
Your response: Check
River: 8 Spades
Dealer's cards: 8 Diamonds, 3 Spades
Your hand: One pair: 7D, 7H, JC, 9D, 8S
Dealer's hand: One pair: 8D, 8S, JC, 9D, 7H
Your hand wins $0.00

Hand # 4
Your cards: 4 Hearts, Jack Diamonds
Your response: Bet $4.00
Flop: 7 Clubs, 10 Spades, 2 Hearts
Your response: Check
Turn: Ace Hearts
Your response: Check
River: King Spades
Dealer's cards: 8 Hearts, 8 Spades
Your hand: High Card: AH, KS, JD, 10S, 7C
Dealer's hand: One pair: 8H, 8S, AH, KS, 10S
Your hand wins $0.00

Hand # 5
Your cards: 8 Clubs, 8 Hearts
Your response: Bet $4.00
Flop: 8 Spades, 10 Clubs, Queen Hearts
Your response: Bet $2.00
Turn: Jack Diamonds
Your response: Bet $2.00
River: 5 Clubs
Dealer's cards: 9 Spades, 2 Clubs
Your hand: Three of a kind: 8C, 8H, 8S, QH, JD
Dealer's hand: Straight: QH, JD, 10C, 9S, 8S
Your hand wins $0.00

Hand # 6
Your cards: 10 Spades, 10 Clubs
Your response: Bet $4.00
Flop: Queen Clubs, 3 Spades, 7 Hearts
Your response: Check
Turn: Queen Spades
Your response: Check
River: 8 Spades
Dealer's cards: 2 Spades, 4 Spades
Your hand: Two pairs: QC, QS, 10C, 10S, 8S
Dealer's hand: Flush: QS, 8S, 4S, 3S, 2S
Your hand wins $0.00


That was as much as I could stand; $40 lost in 2 minutes makes slot play look like winning the lottery!

3 times out of the 6 the dealer caught a key card on the river... (it was 8 of Spades twice!)
Another time he just 'happened' to have the one card needed for the straight... :eek2:
 

pokeraddict

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This stuff happens in regular poker too. It just happens here that you were playing the house. I think it goes along the lines of if you were playing blackjack and the dealer made 3 blackjacks in a row you would question it but if you had them you probably wouldn't remember it 10 minutes later.
 

brutaldeluxe

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Casino hold 'em has to be fixed cards, otherwise how are they getting a house edge ? Every time you go all in you are called regardless and so you can get your money in ahead all-in 90%+ of the time. You can check down all hands when you have nothing and often you are playing for an extra bet off the other player in the pot too. Only ever having to put in extra cash when you have a decent hand. Cards have to be fixed, if cards were random you could make a fortune off that game.
 

pokeraddict

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Casino hold 'em has to be fixed cards, otherwise how are they getting a house edge ? Every time you go all in you are called regardless and so you can get your money in ahead all-in 90%+ of the time. You can check down all hands when you have nothing and often you are playing for an extra bet off the other player in the pot too. Only ever having to put in extra cash when you have a decent hand. Cards have to be fixed, if cards were random you could make a fortune off that game.

With this theory do casinos that offer the same game deal themselves seconds when you are not looking?

There is a house advantage in this game as you can see here, especially on the bonus bet. There is no need to rig the cards for the house to win.

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aka23

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I find it hard to believe that reputable softwares rig their games (why would they need to?), but sometimes I find it even harder to believe I'm getting a truly random game - most especially with Casino Texas Hold'em.
If you are talking about Wagerworks Texas Hold'em Shootout, then quite a few others have made similar comments. One player mentioned losing 49 hands in a row.
 

brutaldeluxe

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Wrong game, texas hold 'em bonus is a totally different game with built in house edge. There's no all in option or anything or the like on this.

Texas Hold 'em shootout is completely different. If you go to

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You can play it for free without having to log in or anything and you should get the idea. They also offer texas hold 'em bonus too.

Don't try and brand me with the "everything is fixed" brigade. That's not what I said. I cannot see how the house could possibly have an edge in texas hold 'em shootout unless the cards are fixed. That's completely different to games which have a house edge where the cards are random. If the cards were random you could win a fotune playing texas hold 'em shootout surely ?

If not would you care to explain where the house derives their edge from texas hold 'em shoot out ? Explains the maths.

With this theory do casinos that offer the same game deal themselves seconds when you are not looking?

There is a house advantage in this game as you can see here, especially on the bonus bet. There is no need to rig the cards for the house to win.

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brutaldeluxe

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Just had a look at the rules and it says.....

Rules
A new, standard 52-card deck is shuffled for each hand of play.

Each bot receives two random cards, just like the player.

Bots have no knowledge of the value of the players initial two cards.

Malfunction voids all pays and play.


It makes no mention as to how the community cards are selected and if they are random though. I would hasten a guess that they community cards are not random.
 

brutaldeluxe

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Hmm the plot thickens, upon looking at the payout it says

The expected payback for this game of chance is 100.00% based upon strategy

That would seem to imply that the flop is random too. If everything is random surely you can beat this long term and it's not 100% ?!?!
You can go all-in any time for 8x your bet and the computer always calls no matter what cards he has.

You are always playing against the strongest of two hands.....disadvantage there. However sometimes you are only putting in two bets to win 5 bets if one bot calls and then folds.

If you have nothing you can always check it down. If you have a hand you can always bet it for as much as possible and you will be called regardless of what the bot has.

That can't be 100% if it's random surely ? Call me cynical but something slightly fishy here.
 

kakata

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KK is not used to lose.........lol.
Thats Y..........:D
 

Mousey

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I find it hard to believe that reputable softwares rig their games (why would they need to?), but sometimes I find it even harder to believe I'm getting a truly random game - most especially with Casino Texas Hold'em.

....

I find that hard to believe too, however MG's autohold on their 4 play 10's or Better VP has been screwy for months -- whether by accident or design (I prefer to believe it's merely programmer error) -- so who's to say when games develop glitches or when the software is 'rigged'?
 

KasinoKing

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If you are talking about Wagerworks Texas Hold'em Shootout, then quite a few others have made similar comments. One player mentioned losing 49 hands in a row.
This particular instance was on Crypto software.
I know these games can be streaky & that bad-beats do obviously happen in Hold'em, but to get badly bad-beaten 3 times in 5 heads-up hands just seems well beyond any random occurrence. :(

As to WagerWorks Hold'em shoot out;
In my personal opinion this game 100% definitely does not deal random cards.
There is no way the bots could ever get so 'lucky' in a truly random situation.
My belief is that this game is a bit like a slot. You have a random chance of winning each hand; the software decides before the deal if you will win or not, and then just deals suitable cards to give the pre-determined outcome.

Now I am quite happy to play the game with this knowledge, as the house edge does seem to be quite small nonetheless. However I do feel very strongly that WagerWorks should clearly point out that this game is basically AWP, and not a truly random card game.
(Much the same as the infamous Slotland Video Poker 'slot').

KK
 

brutaldeluxe

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Thing is Kasino King , it clearly states that isn't what is supposed to happen.
It says all players are given two random cards from a 52 card deck.
Now as I said at no point does it ever say the flop/turn/river is random but it does say payback depending on play strategy is 100% - I don't believe that for a minute. I think the initial cards could be random but something slightly dodgy happens when the community cards come.
 

bpb

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If not would you care to explain where the house derives their edge from texas hold 'em shoot out ? Explains the maths.


The house edge derives from the "bot behavior", described in the game rules below from the casino website.

Essentially, you are only dealt one hand, while your opponents get to choose the better of two hands. This is a huge diasadvantage. Sit at your kitchen table and try playing heads up against a player able to pick between two starting hands each time.

I don't know if anyone besides the developers have quantified the actual house edge of this game. (simulation would be a lot simpler than combinatorial analysis) But I would be confident that there is a house edge even for perfect play.



Bot Behaviour
Bot behaviour is based only on the following rules and never on the value of your cards, the size of your Blind bet, your prior outcomes, your balance, or any other external factor.

If the red bot has a stronger hand than the blue bot before the flop, it will always call and raise your initial Blind bet. The blue bot will fold.

If the blue bot has a stronger hand than the red bot, then the red bot will randomly either call your initial Blind bet or fold. In the former case, referred to as a rich pot, the red bot is guaranteed to fold the next time around. So, if you subsequently CALL, RAISE or go ALL IN, the red bot will leave the game to you and the blue bot.

If either bot hand is in the lower quartile of standard initial hand rankings, the hand with the highest ranking is selected to be the strong hand; otherwise the best outcome is used. In the case where both bots have equally strong hands, one of the bots is randomly chosen.

After the flop, the remaining bot will always match your betting action. If you CHECK, the bot will check. If you BET, the bot will call, but will never raise. After the flop, you always control the betting.
 

brutaldeluxe

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You're not telling me anything I haven't already stated or didn't you notice that ?

You are always playing against the strongest of two hands.....disadvantage there. However sometimes you are only putting in two bets to win 5 bets if one bot calls and then folds.

If you have nothing you can always check it down. If you have a hand you can always bet it for as much as possible and you will be called regardless of what the bot has.

As I already stated that is a disadvantage yes but it is offset a little by the fact sometimes you are betting two units to win five units rather than four units. Also with a good hand you can always try and get the maximum amount of cash in the pot and with a bad hand you can always lose the minimum amount. Again this will slightly offset it.

Also as I said..

You can go all-in any time for 8x your bet and the computer always calls no matter what cards he has.

How does this affect house edge do you think ? Is it enough to exactly compensate for the disadvantages already mentioned ? Is there even a house edge everything considered ? As I already said the game says

The expected payback for this game of chance is 100.00% based upon strategy

Anyone actually have any maths here to show this ? Does anyone have any simulation software they could run ? Be interesting to see what happens with various strategies. Like going all in with say KJ and above, always betting the max if you flop 2nd pair or better etc. Seems hard to believe that the best strategy would yield exactly 100% doesn't it ?
 

vinylweatherman

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Risky

Seems risky to have a complex casino game with an exact 100% theoretical edge, as the slightest bias could go in the player's favour and they could spot it and clean up. The rules make it clear that the two bots collaborate, each acting on the state of both their hands, but the behaviour is defined, so the player can also tell the state of the bot hands in some sense from the way they play.
I trust the casino has not made the error of allowing play to count towards comp points, or even bonus WR!
 

brutaldeluxe

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Whatever floats your boat bpb, all you were doing was repeating things I had already posted and making out like it was new information which solved the case somehow. If you have something new to add by all means fire in, if you're gonna go and take a hissy fit then that's your problem.

Vinyl - Yeah in fact there are some bonuses at some casinos where the only way to clear the playthrough is by playing this texas hold 'em poker game.
It counts towards comp points as well I think. So even if it were actually 100% you'd be playing a slight positive expectation game cos of comp points. I don't believe it is a 100% game though !
Surely someone has a simulator out there ?
Perhaps I'll try emailing Michael Shackleford about it.
 

dealer wins

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I used to play that Texas Holdem Shootout when it first launched and this game is the most unbelievably rigged game I have ever seen.

Maybe the hole cards are random but the community cards cannot be random. The bots hit miracle hands time and time again. (and if you check down garbage the bot also seems to have garbage but conveniently slightly higher garbage!!!

In a real poker game if you flop a set you are a HUGE favourite most of the time even with 5 players in the hand, but not on this game LOL

And dont talk to me about the all-ins with AA-88 which, (against two random hands with the best one calling all the time), seem to lose way too much.

Out of all the games I have ever played online this is truely the worst one by a country mile.
 

Dirk Diggler

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Hmm the plot thickens, upon looking at the payout it says



That would seem to imply that the flop is random too. If everything is random surely you can beat this long term and it's not 100% ?!?!
You can go all-in any time for 8x your bet and the computer always calls no matter what cards he has.

You are always playing against the strongest of two hands.....disadvantage there. However sometimes you are only putting in two bets to win 5 bets if one bot calls and then folds.

If you have nothing you can always check it down. If you have a hand you can always bet it for as much as possible and you will be called regardless of what the bot has.

That can't be 100% if it's random surely ? Call me cynical but something slightly fishy here.

Unfortunately that's not the complete set of rules you've got there. The computer doesn't always select it's strongest hand based purely on which of the bot hands is mathematically strongest.

I can't remember the exact rules, but it's something like if both bot hands are in the same quartile the computer will get to see the community cards in advance and select the best bot hand dependent on that.

That's why you often get stuffed on the river with the bot picking up a ridiculous straight/flush.

I've no doubt the stated possible payout is the 100% they state, but the maths behind coming up with the perfect strategy look amazingly complicated to me so I doubt we can realistically play at anything like 100% payout.
 

vinylweatherman

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Unfortunately that's not the complete set of rules you've got there. The computer doesn't always select it's strongest hand based purely on which of the bot hands is mathematically strongest.

I can't remember the exact rules, but it's something like if both bot hands are in the same quartile the computer will get to see the community cards in advance and select the best bot hand dependent on that.

That's why you often get stuffed on the river with the bot picking up a ridiculous straight/flush.

I've no doubt the stated possible payout is the 100% they state, but the maths behind coming up with the perfect strategy look amazingly complicated to me so I doubt we can realistically play at anything like 100% payout.

That is just plain cheating. At the time of hand selection, the community cards are not information yet released to a poker game, and the player chooses how much to wager without knowing the community cards.
If the bot can cheat in this way, it will always be able to choose a flukey hand, and the player will get far too many bad beats. I doubt it will be 100% with this.
 

Dirk Diggler

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It's not quite cheating as it's stated in the rules - though I admit it's not made clear at all.

And it's also what brings the payout down to 100%, if it wasn't there the player would have a massive advantage.

The exact rule is:

If either bot hand is in the lower quartile of standard initial hand rankings, the hand with the highest ranking is selected to be the strong hand; otherwise the best outcome is used. In the case where both bots have equally strong hands, one of the bots is randomly chosen.

So it's only if one of the bot hands is in the lower quartile of rankings, otherwise the casino selects the best bot hand depending on the community cards.

That means that 62.5% of the time the casino is in effect playing two hands against your one. And the other 37.5% of the time his hand is always in the top 3 quartiles of ranking hands (75%).
 

lojo

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It's not quite cheating as it's stated in the rules - though I admit it's not made clear at all.

And it's also what brings the payout down to 100%, if it wasn't there the player would have a massive advantage.

The exact rule is:



So it's only if one of the bot hands is in the lower quartile of rankings, otherwise the casino selects the best bot hand depending on the community cards.

That means that 62.5% of the time the casino is in effect playing two hands against your one. And the other 37.5% of the time his hand is always in the top 3 quartiles of ranking hands (75%).

As effed up as it is, that is one of the most elegant... nope, the most elegant argument i have seen here.:thumbsup:
 
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