Unbelievable runs followed by bust - how frequent are they ? the doomswitch

[roulettedonkey]

So, it happened to me at least four times over the course of 2 years, in different casinos.

What's an unbelievable run and a bust ?
- several (not one) 100x big wins in a single session of, say 1500 spins in different slots or non-live roulette/BJ,
- initial deposit multiplied by 20x to 200x
- with or without initial bonuses, but max amount cashable
- followed by an absurd sequence of low wins (< 5xBet), say only less than 200 spins, only <10€/spin with many <2€/spin, no degen >50€ bets.

approx amounts
20€ to 1500€ to 0€
100€ to 3600€ to 0€
10€ (!!!) to 1100€ to 0€
40€ to 600€ to 0€

Having say that, I DID cashout (once) on one similar crazy run and some big wins/progressives on other sessions / casinos.

Of course, I would say nothing if I had 10 or 20 playing sessions in total because it would be not statistically significant to conclude that it's rigged in my favour or the favour of the casino. But I have played much more like you all do.

There'll never be enough reliable statistical data to provide a solid proof that a doomswitch is activated by a betting pattern analyzer. But I think it's only a matter of time until such program leaks.

I am firmly convinced than there is such setup and algorithms to ensure that the player will come back. The goal for casinos is not to bring everyone to 0, but to ensure long term income.

Artificial intelligence is not specifically my field, but there is no doubt that, just like robot can learn to move around (without being instructed anything), they can learn to analyze and predict player betting pattern with enough accuracy. It's waaaaaaay easier than making a robot walk.

A player who has been on these rollercoasters is more valuable to a casino than another player who lost the very same amount because the first one would come back to try again (aka chase his loses).

Casinos can totally afford the risk of having the player cash out sometimes (and they'd profit from the free advertisement on casino review sites). But they'll still prefer confiscate the wining for any absurd reason.


My remark would be of course irrelevant in a

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game/casino scenario (mostly cryptocurrency "casinos"). All the Online Casinos (of registered companies, Curacao, Malta etc) are not Provably fair, are they ? Oh, they're audited ? AHAHAHAHAH (sarcasm...)

Anyway, that was OFFTOPIC, or topic of another thread (please open one)


So what's your experiences of crazy runs ? What do you think of it ?

 

[dionysus]

Random is random is random. We all have runs. We all have more losses. Anyone who plays sufficiently will have more losses, and given time and funds, ultimately lose.

I've had a few good runs where I've literally played an entire day and night on a deposit. Many a time I've lost in minutes lol.

ps - there is no doomsday switch

 

[Deeplay]

I don't buy it at all. Op you could have cashed out but did not. As said random is random. Greed and chasing is self inflicted. Dunover pls provide new foil hat.


Said it before casinos need to rig nothing. It's built into the maths model that in the end player always looses.

 

[Jono777]

I have lost count of the amount of times I've had a 'Mega big win' or wins at the very start of a session only for every other games I've tried to be cold as ice and turned a very good looking start into a rage and a BUST!

In fact it happened TWICE this weekend, Friday and today!

Do I think anything of it, No I don't other than 'That was a piss take, oh well I'll try again tomorrow!

 

[roulettedonkey]

No need to mock at me Dee -_-

I'm not questioning (questionable) odds presented by casinos/game providers/auditors (that is, when/if they're available).

I rather talking about the psychological engineering (and social engineering) behind the frequency and severity of wins and losses. No need to touch RTP for that.

Random is random is random.

Sure, anyone (...) can calculate probabilities, expectations, variances, risk of ruin, stochastic models, autoregressive integrated moving average time series, partial auto-correlation functions, etc...
What I want to say, is that it's easy to design slots and calculate/estimate odds. And account the crazy runs for that.

But there IS more than that.

Shall I point an Outdated URL (Invalid) out ?

I highlighted

About you
We think you have a natural talent for understanding and solving abstract and complex problems and have a good eye for detail.

It is important that you have an interest in understanding how different math models relates to and translate into player behavior and what appeals to and triggers the end user.

We think you should have an interest in games both from a designer and player perspective.

Math models, not flashy colors and groovy music and a stupid RNG.

I can imagine the nature of the nondisclosure terms...
... and a fat paycheck.

So... ?

 

[dionysus]

sorry, but and so...what?
We're aware games have variance and volatility - that's part of the appeal. It's why some people prefer, say, Thunderstruck 1 to Thunderstruck II, or low var WR-grinding games vs DOA.

 

[goatwack]

To be fair most sessions do put the player up, even if just briefly or a small amount. I find this to be quite common. It's only when upping bets or staying too long on any particular game that my luck goes invariably south, more likely caused by the aforementioned big wins and hypnotic lights & sounds show.

It all comes down to discipline and knowing when to call it a day. But then game designers know that gamblers are compulsive and expert at turning victory into defeat.

I gotta lay off the high variance slots too, they can really bamboozle you just when you think this is your time!

 

[roulettedonkey]

No prob ;P



Soooo.... when is it gonna blow ? that casinos/game designers

- not only record players name, address, bank info etc... but also have personalized or pooled "betting psychological profile" to keep him chasing loss, trying to reach previous uncashed out big wins
- in order to do so, they rearrange wins / losses without touching RTP or impacting variance

There is something in the ad really .... hum

You will also work on risk analysis together with our Business Intelligence Department to understand casino risk and determine probability of wins for player investigations.

Player investigates ? If he had a provably game, he wouldn't need to investigate, he'd only check key hashes and secret keys.

Soooo..... I guess what I'm trying to prove is that... there are enough clues to point to the fact that :

These games are provably UNfair, in the following sense : the result of a roll/spin is not the result of a fair RNG.

 

[dionysus]

I still don't get how A leads to B here.
Risk analysis? Well, of course. Slots have to play fair and yet leave house edge, they cant screw players nor bankrupt casinos. Casinos offer promotions. Poor promos have cost casinos large. Some have cost players large. That has nothing to do with 'tweaking' slots...that's maths in WR and offers and fair play. That's bonus chasers and abusers. That's a myriad of things.

But anyway, it comes down to this:
If you play at a casino you trust that's it's fair, that slots were designed by programmers for players AND casinos, with a built in house edge, a theoretical RTP and to appeal to consumers (by reaching RTP by means such as low var...small wins often, high var...big wins rarely, highly volatile....rare wins with outstanding potential, etc) and with knowing all this still, it's all random, entertainment, and maybe, sometimes, we win and if we're smart, we cash out.

OR..you can believe slots are NOT random, utterly rigged, big brother is watching, there's a kill switch etc. However, those people that believe this AND YET STILL PLAY..well, there's many nouns and adjective to describe these people, none of which are flattering.

 

[hokiepoker]

Hello from 3Dice Purgatory!!!

Random is random is random. We all have runs. We all have more losses. Anyone who plays sufficiently will have more losses, and given time and funds, ultimately lose.

I've had a few good runs where I've literally played an entire day and night on a deposit. Many a time I've lost in minutes lol.

ps - there is no doomsday switch

And that's the way the cookie crumbles.....

Saying hello from 3Dice purgatory!!!

 

[roulettedonkey]

It's more subtle than that. Meh... whatever.

I was interested at players experiences and impressions at first. I guess the trend is that they blame these rollercoasters on variance / random / etc.

Recalling the concept of provably fair game would profit to anyone gambling in so-called legit casinos.

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. Crypto gambling world (including low house edge provably fair casinos/dices) is IMHO just as bad or dangerous as regular casinos. (no responsible gambling, risk of virtual currencies etc).

 

[Deeplay]

OP was not insulting you nor meaning to.

But this thread is beyond me.

I trust that game provider provide a fair game.

I pays my money - I sit red eyed watching the game - and enjoy the thrill - win or loose.

You seem to have had some heavy losses and your looking for a reason behind this.

Well I can give you a very good reason - its called gambling which in the long run (and short run with my luck at moment )
means we never come out on top.

 

[sueyh]

I'm sorry but I'm not quite sure what you want to say here.

A casino is not a charity group. What a casino wants is money from customers like all other retail shop. Like all retail shops focus on how to make customers spend more money in their shop, all casinos focus on how to make players spend more money there.

Responsible gambling is not about making people win more often. Responsible gambling is about either making sure the player doesn't lose more than he can afford-you can set up the limit of how much you can deposit- or making sure the player who can't control themselves don't player in the casino at all-you can self-exclude from the casino permanently-.

Most people would hit the "withdraw" button after they win $1500 from $20 deposit. I probably would play more, but if the funds drop to 1200 from 1500, I withdraw the money.

Even if there is artificial intelligence inside slot system like you said, all you need to do is to stop pushing "spin" button and click "withdraw". No matter how smart the slot is, they can't keep spinning against your will.

 

[Jasminebed]

It is more than possible to push a small win into a huge win.

But is is also way more less than likely.

It's slots for crying out loud, the house wins.

Or any other game the house wins.

You can get really lucky, I did recently.

If I kept playing at those stakes, I could be broke before now.

Years ago, my "fun play" deposits were one of two: $45,000, the equity I had, or $25 to $100, the deposit I might make.

I could lose my house (theorhetically) in an evening.

There is a reason long time members say random... because it is, at least any any casinos accredited here.

 

[Lucky Loser]

A week ago I won $1800 from $7 worth of cash points at Red Flush.

I started off playing Happy Holidays at 60c and won $50 from the feature. Then upped my bet to $1.50 and got the feature again but this time I got frozen mode (i.e hot mode in TS2) which paid $1400. Got a few more wins and got my peak balance to $1800.

Was all downhill from there playing 3 per spin on various slots and lost the lot. Happens sometimes. You're going to have alot more bad luck than good luck so you need to know when to stop playing which I failed to do miserably.

 

[lockinlove]

A week ago I won $1800 from $7 worth of cash points at Red Flush.

I started off playing Happy Holidays at 60c and won $50 from the feature. Then upped my bet to $1.50 and got the feature again but this time I got frozen mode (i.e hot mode in TS2) which paid $1400. Got a few more wins and got my peak balance to $1800.

Was all downhill from there playing 3 per spin on various slots and lost the lot. Happens sometimes. You're going to have alot more bad luck than good luck so you need to know when to stop playing which I failed to do miserably.

ouch that hurts.

Its such a huge success story to build such a win off such a little comp point. Then really hurts to lose it all lol. I once built up $2 in comp point to about $150 and I was pretty damn excited. All from getting lucky on roulette.


I find casino groups/software different. Which goes without saying.

RTG. Havent cashed out in years or even got above my starting balance by anything significant or even much at all. with over $3000 in deposits and bonuses and average bet 50 cent-$1. This is the only software I will say that does not feel random or proper. I do not trust RTG at all

All other casinos. Netent.. Microgaming, playtech. Have had nice wins...and some losses. Feels random and normal.

 

[nikantw]

"We think you have a natural talent for understanding and solving abstract and complex problems and have a good eye for detail.

It is important that you have an interest in understanding how different math models relates to and translate into player behavior and what appeals to and triggers the end user.

We think you should have an interest in games both from a designer and player perspective. "

All they say is that games should be interesting. And how they pay is big part of that.

 

[nikantw]

More important than “what the slot will do after a big win” is “what I should do.”

Big, huge, gigantic D) part of responsible gambling is to know when to call it a day. When you win big it is time to take your winnings and do something else for a day or two. :eat::Read::yahoo:

 

[petro]

Hi roulettedonkey I read your post and every other post.

"There'll never be enough reliable statistical data to provide a solid proof that a doomswitch is activated by a betting pattern analyzer."
I bet you it could be proven. I think it's too long and complicated to describe how it can be proven.
You might already know this but all betting patterns/betting systems don't work. RTP wise, you end up with the exact same results as if you were randomly picking.

"I am firmly convinced than there is such setup and algorithms to ensure that the player will come back."
Do you have any evidence outside your word that this is true?

"- not only record players name, address, bank info etc... but also have personalized or pooled "betting psychological profile""
I thought that is what you were trying to say. I doubt they would ever go to that extent to win a few miserly dollars from players. If they did that at some of the big casinos
like 32Red; someone on their staff would say something. What you're saying is a conspiracy theory.

"- in order to do so, they rearrange wins / losses without touching RTP or impacting variance"
How is that possible? I don't think it is possible because RTP and variance are fundamentally what a casino game is made up of.

 

[slotter999]

It's difficult to see any truth in the original posters claim....but if such a switch did exist...it's definitely been used on me a fair few times

But purely from a discussion point of view - how could we ever know that such a thing does not exist without just taking their word for it? Open source the game code...publish all bet statistics...RNG statistics? Anything?

 

[JackMack]

My experience is that whenever I have had an amazing run of good luck it has been followed by an amazing run of bad luck.
I think it is more noticeable to slot junkies who play for hours on end even after good wins as if you cashed out and then just made a few losing deposits it would much less noticeable.
It has happened so many times I have lost count, sort of 45% RTP until bust with every free spin round hard to get and dead no matter the game.

On the other hand any gambler knows that ultimately you must lose if you keep playing. For me it is just the nature of the losing streaks that raises an eyebrow and tbf sometimes the winning streaks seem just as unlikely.
Ever since slots were first designed there has always been a science behind finding ways to keep people spinning, most of the dark arts are now outlawed and there is some quite complex mathematics involved in making the variance for a particular game well balanced between risk and reward while keeping up the entertainment. The old PAR sheets are very simplistic versions of how today's licensed video slots work with multiple bonus rounds and different number of payable windows instead of standard 5x3 for 5 reel slots. There are even 6 reel and 7 reel slots these days!

I guess if there is any kind of manipulation I would rather it be boom/bust than bust/bust

Whatever we personally believe I think it is important to make cashout on the few times we hit so that it can fund future deposits.
There is nothing worse than finally hitting and playing it all back - even when you win, you lose.

 

[bebo67]

I have lost count of the amount of times I've had a 'Mega big win' or wins at the very start of a session only for every other games I've tried to be cold as ice and turned a very good looking start into a rage and a BUST!

In fact it happened TWICE this weekend, Friday and today!

Do I think anything of it, No I don't other than 'That was a piss take, oh well I'll try again tomorrow!

The red hair in me comes out. I start swearing, shaking the computer, kick things. Act very un lady like. Have a smoke and play again.

 

[partyhummel]

i love the high wins clustering...

had a 10 to 800 within 40 minutes at v&j in june - cashed out 200 busted the rest since i tend to try to start predicting randomness at a streak which is insanely idiotic stupid.

400 to 13.000 at slotty at newyears night cashed out about 9.000. since they are processing truely extremely fast, allthough they had that issue in december. awesome operation.

thats my ... most impressive recent examples.

 

[partyhummel]

and to be honest...

had a 10 to 800 within 40 minutes at v&j in june - cashed out 200 busted the rest since i tend to try to start predicting randomness at a streak which is insanely idiotic stupid.

400 to 13.000 at slotty at newyears night cashed out about 9.000. since they are processing truely extremely fast, allthough they had that issue in december. awesome operation.

thats my ... most impressive recent examples.

of course stupid hummel kept on depositing and busted it all. i have located the mistakes and as always - trial and error - try to develop and improve myself.

 

[partyhummel]

thats when writing during the night...

the amount remaining in my payroll i busted. - i took a slice to support someone important to me, before. (result of former periods of learning)