Tips TRTP and it's effect on what you get......

[dunover]

Right, lately we have had many people, mainly newbies asking about RTP and thinking they are being ripped by lower than advertised temporary RTP's.

So, in my own little way I hope this explanation helps get your heads around the issue.

So, in my example I am using a TRTP (theoretical return to player) of 95% but for simplicity's sake it will be achieved via the random number generator (RNG) over a mere 100 spins..........

So, the ultimate LOW VARIANCE example would be: You have 100 spins and win 0.95 EVERY spin. (you've all see Starburst lol...)

For my simplified example we have the ultimate HIGH VARIANCE slot - out of 100 spins, 99 will pay bugger-all and one will pay 95.0.

So, I make a deposit, and on my fiftieth spin I win the 95 pounds. I cashout. My RTP for the session (50 played, 95 won) is 190% Yippee.

So, player B coming along makes a deposit of 100. (bear in mind the slot must pay the 95 in every 100 spins.) He obviously loses for the next 50 spins as you just had the 95 win. So, 50 down he now unknowingly enters the next cycle of 100 spins. This time, although he doesn't know it, the next 95 win is going to come on the very last of the 100 spins. He has now lost therefore his whole hundred with a 0 RTP. He deposits another 50 and on the last spin gets the 95 win. His RTP for the last 50 deposit is 190% same as the first player's 50 deposit session. Only he's lost 100 beforehand so his OVERALL RTP at the site is 100%/150 units x 95 unit win = 63.33%.

He will then come on here pissing and moaning (as many of us have) 'it's rigged/awful site/terrible slot'.

BUT....look at the stats - the slot has taken 200 units, paid 2x95 units out therefore has hit it's TRTP of 95%.

OK, so now we see that, complicate the example; turn the 100 spins into 10 million, fill the pool the RNG selects from with any permutation that adds up to 95% of 10 million units i.e. 1 million 0.5x stake values, 500,000 10x stake values, 50 1000x stake values etc. Obviously free spins scatter triggers and values will come into it and of course the likelihood of any win in the pool will be reflected in the reel maps by frequency of symbols - whether the reels are stopped individually with 5 random stops (some are allegedly) or a simple pseudo-reel graphic is computed or selected to match your individual RNG selection (as in MG slots almost certainly and definitely in WMS).

Lastly, the pool is a 'rolling pool' - it doesn't have a fixed end of 10 million as in my 100-spin example (which is more like an AWP works admittedly) but the RNG value you've just had goes back in the pool so there are always the same chances of the player picking any named RNG value on every spin.

(This explains why some casinos like Enzo at 3Dice will openly tell you that although all their slots for example's sake are 95% TRTP, some to date have paid to all players ever 97.8% and some only 93.2% - this is simply the long term effect of luck going either for or against the casino on any particular game, although the median RTP to date on ALL their games together would very likely be nearer the 95%)

Now imagine your 900 deposit will get you 900 goes. You dip your 'hand' blind into the pool in one go and grab 900 values which total 2700 - great, you've grabbed 1 1000x stake win, 500 2x stake wins 397 no-wins and 2 350x stake wins. You're 1800 up, and have had a session RTP of 300%

Next time you only grab 900 values which total 450 - you've had a bad session with a 50% RTP but overall you casino RTP to date is 1800 deposited and played, 3150 taken out = 175%.

Hope this example helps players understand both basic variance and more importantly what session RTP, theoretical RTP and overall personal account RTP actually mean. It is easy to focus on a few bad sessions and not calculate how previous wins and cashouts may mean your overall RTP at that particular site can still remain quite favourable.

 

[bpb]

Nothing you say is wrong. However, I'm continually amazed at the effort people go through to convince themselves or others that a slot machine with a 5% house edge is a fair gamble. It's highway robbery. Better than 10-15% house edges in B&M casinos. But highway robbery nonetheless.

 

[bigjohn]

Nothing you say is wrong. However, I'm continually amazed at the effort people go through to convince themselves or others that a slot machine with a 5% house edge is a fair gamble. It's highway robbery. Better than 10-15% house edges in B&M casinos. But highway robbery nonetheless.

What makes you think people think like that?

I look at it like this, the money I am depositing and playing is money I probably would have spent on something else stupid (read fun but non-profitable). All the deposits along the way don't really help me nor do I miss that money much. The idea is to get a large amount once in a while that I can use for something else stupid (same implied meaning as before) but bigger.

There is also the excitement of possibly hitting something really nice.

Is any of this making any sense to you?

What would be your ideal gambling game? A 100% RTP slot with zero variance? That would be a riot.

Do you ever take any gambles?

I don't really expect a response from you because you just seem to get a kick out of chiming in with a distortion of whatever the thread concerns.

BTW, I'm still waiting for a reply from you to a comment you made in my RTG rant thread.

 

[LaHutti]

It's called entertainment.
Do you also consider buying 2 theater (or anything else) tickets for me and missus highway robbery ?

Nothing you say is wrong. However, I'm continually amazed at the effort people go through to convince themselves or others that a slot machine with a 5% house edge is a fair gamble. It's highway robbery. Better than 10-15% house edges in B&M casinos. But highway robbery nonetheless.

 

[mrmark21]

Over priced entertainment. IMO the real problem stems from when people play to win, everything about the slots advertises "win on this slot" then casinos push it as entertainment. I don't mind (they are there to make money) but i feel sorry for the people that fall for the pitches. Which is easy to do when you're in a bad place and some stupid spam (from some probably rogue casino) advertises "get out of debt now with our high paying slots"

I'm a gamer, i play allot, just bought my ps vita about two weeks ago and already have thirty two games downloaded at about thirty to fourty bucks a pop. So i'd be spending that money anyway. I kind of look at gambling as an overpriced gaming arcade (we have Intencity in Australia) where i could win money rather than a crappy novelty toy.

 

[Balthazar]

(bear in mind the slot must pay the 95 in every 100 spins.)

Must pay? No. Mathematically it should pay. I know it's only an example but there's a big important difference here.

Lastly, the pool is a 'rolling pool' - it doesn't have a fixed end of 10 million as in my 100-spin example (which is more like an AWP works admittedly) but the RNG value you've just had goes back in the pool so there are always the same chances of the player picking any named RNG value on every spin.

Yes, the numbers go back in the pool after each spin. This is what people have to remember.

Also the theory that each number in the pool is associated with a "win" or "lose" has been pretty much debunked. We now have to assume that the RNG stops the reels in random positions, and that's where your wins/loses come from.

 

[dunover]

Must pay? No. Mathematically it should pay. I know it's only an example but there's a big important difference here.




Yes, the numbers go back in the pool after each spin. This is what people have to remember.

Also the theory that each number in the pool is associated with a "win" or "lose" has been pretty much debunked. We now have to assume that the RNG stops the reels in random positions, and that's where your wins/loses come from.

Assumption is the mother of all ****-ups.

IF on some or all softwares the reels were RNG specific fine, but the video graphics suggest otherwise. Any way that's a digression; addressing your point I have merely as you suggest put a parameter on an indefinite run of RNG events to help new members get an idea of how things are supposed to work. It wasn't my intention to raise old debates or the bickering over old ground we've indulged in on other threads. Whether your assumption or mine is correct, or maybe both of us depending on the software is immaterial; the real experience the new player will get and why he gets it is my point here.

 

[dunover]

Nothing you say is wrong. However, I'm continually amazed at the effort people go through to convince themselves or others that a slot machine with a 5% house edge is a fair gamble. It's highway robbery. Better than 10-15% house edges in B&M casinos. But highway robbery nonetheless.

Judging by this post you infer that anything the player doesn't have 100%+x odds for is an 'unfair gamble'! Why did you ever gamble and join CM then? I take it you no longer play these 'unfair' games?

You seem to ignore the entertainment aspect. On a 'good' losing session you can deposit 50, and end with an RTP for the deposit of 99.7% which meant you bust out, but potentially played for hours and hours.

You may, just may, even deposit 50 and play for hours and cash out 300! You have no chance of doing that spending 50 quid on petrol or beer, have you?

You never bought a lottery ticket where the player RTP is 50%?

Just look at it in a realistic way - we have all just deposited 1000 pounds between us. The casino has taken 50 pounds and stuffed it in their ass pocket. There is 950 in the pot. We depositors can all now grab one handful from the pot. I grabbed 200. I'm 100 up. You grabbed 75, you're 25 down - it's called gambling my friend!

 

[cpdnd31]

So in basic terms, can we look at this like: 1000 tickets to a raffle. Each ticket cost a penny. I play 20 cents and every time i pull i get 20 1 cent tickets with a possible cash prize? -I remember an old thread here explaining Rtg progressives and that was the basics of it. So can we also use that analogy to help newbies understand this theory better?

 

[dunover]

So in basic terms, can we look at this like: 1000 tickets to a raffle. Each ticket cost a penny. I play 20 cents and every time i pull i get 20 1 cent tickets with a possible cash prize? -I remember an old thread here explaining Rtg progressives and that was the basics of it. So can we also use that analogy to help newbies understand this theory better?

Progressives are fundamentally different in that in my example above, whereby the casino takes the 1000 pounds in deposits, stuffs 50 in their arse pocket and lets players fight over the other 950, in your case the casino takes another 50 and chucks it in a 'lucky dip' pot and leaves 900 for normal play. The lucky dip pot has millions of non-winning outcomes, a few hundred 'minor' outcomes, tens of 'mini' outcomes, a few 'major' outcomes and one 'mega; outcome. (This is based on the Playtech model; on RTG you have one or two jackpots) - so as you say, each 20p spin if it is the lowest stake will get you one 'raffle ticket' whether it is just for that particular slot at that particular casino, or a pooled jackpot for that specific slot at any casino. Now if you play $1 you get 5 entries into the raffle IF it is one of those jackpots whereby increased stake increases your chance of winning it. So, you can still win a prize at 0.20 but are 5x less likely to - for all I know, some may have a rule that ANY spin of ANY stake just gets one ticket, although that would be unfair on higher stakes players.

If on a 20-line slot playing 1 penny a line for a 0.20 stake you choose to play just one line at 1 penny I don't know if that could be a 'raffle ticket' or not. If it was, it would make little difference other than you are 100x less likely to win than a $1.00 player or 20x less likely than the 0.20 player.

On progressives you are getting a RN generated for the spin on the slot, and another for the jackpot pool. Every time the spin doesn't get an award from the jackpot pool, it goes up a minute fraction.

 

[243 lines=daft]

What irks me a little about the '1000 tickets to the raffle' thing (which I agree is a good visualisation for what appears to be the accepted understanding of how slots work) is that its design is so deliberately obfuscatious.

A newbie is most likely to hold the default assumption that at least in theory they could pull the same number from the 1000 tickets twice in a row. Or even more times in a row.

A newbie may well have previously played (eg) the lottery where their selected numbers have the clear (albeit unlikely!) chance of coming up several times in a row, or played in a B'n'M where seemingly implausible sequences of repeated numbers can and do happen on a nightly basis, providing for some a harsh but useful lesson in variance.

So if they then move onto online casinos their expectation is going to be 'any raffle ticket, anytime' so to speak.

In online casinos (aka the 1000 ticket raffle), the random number generators have 'a gentle influence' on the outcome and that seems to be good enough for those who have developed their own expectations through experience with these games.

To me the journey from one set of expectations to the other is one that could be shortened by greater clarity and transparency.

 

[dunover]

Yes, true enough. Only if the casinos actually knew everything about the slots they provide, would it be wise of them to tell you for example 'on BDBA you have a 1-in-450,000 chance of getting 5 sapphires/wilds in normal spins, and a 1-in-33,000,000 chance of hitting them in free spins'? Who would benefit? They wouldn't, as those stats (not real BTW) would put many players off. The player wouldn't, as part of the excitement of playing is the 'unknown', the chance of a big hit. IF the play hits one of those examples, he only thinks 'wasn't that a lucky hit' - he doesn't really need to know how lucky it was, surely?

Secondly, if they said 'you have a 1/250 chance of hitting a bonus round on any spin', and you didn't hit one for 1500 spins, what would happen? You'd be whingeing on here about RTP being bad, bad luck and every other negative going.

I think we have nearly all the information we need, and the rest we know how to get.