To Game Designers, to Casinos : the quest for Trust.

roulettedonkey

Banned User - Troll - making anti-semitic posts
Joined
Jan 3, 2016
Location
nowheresville
This is intentionally a little provocative title, but it's only because how crucial it is.
Yes I am (only) a skeptic... and a costumer too!

You Casinos and game developers, could only win from explaining to me what I get wrong.

Caution : this story will look and sound silly. But it is only to illustrate my purpose, and actually reflects my state of mind.

I am not a native English speaker... so...

CHAPTER 1 THE GAME
For the sake of simplicity. Let's consider a casino which has only one slot. With only 2 possible outcomes : payout x0.90, 1.02.

The game designer claims the two payouts have equal probability advertises a theoretical RTP of 96% = 1/2 x0.9 + 1/2 x1.02.

I am player A and I deposit 100€. I bet it all on a spin, I win 90€ = 100€ x0.90 (net loss of 10€ on this bet)
I bet 10€ on a second spin, and I win 10.20€ = 10€ x1.02 (win of 0.20€ on this bet).

At the end of the month, those were the only plays. The casino publishes actual RTP for slots (he has only one) : 96% because the lowest and highest multipliers were won each only one time : 96%= (1 x0.90 + 1 x0.90) / 2.

At this point, I get suspicious. I tell to myself, I could have hit the highest multiplier with my first big bet. I wonder if the casino or the game was designed to select big bets and make them loose.

Spins are calculated by a random number generator (RNG) who's randomness is periodically evaluated. So they say :) No seriously, I'm not questioning that. Or am I ? Please read until the end.

I want to know more about RNG and how they're used.

CHAPTER 2 THE RTP

I am interested into that RNG and how it's tested. I look in the information pages of the casinos and games developers. They say their products are reviewed periodically by independent organizations, companies, agencies ? It's not very clear.

But I see percentage payout reviewed by independent auditors. I click on it, it's a pop up and I see that the percentage on slots (for instance, slot) is 96%. And it says it's from a company/agency named eCogra. I wasn't really looking for that, but even if I'm not really convinced that the auditors were
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
, I decide to trust this figure. Because after all, many companies, organisations etc are being audited. I am interested in why I lost my first big bet.

I found eCogra. That could have been any. I just telling my peregrination.

CHAPTER 2 THE RNG

So what about the RNG ? I go on eCogras website. Where are they. I see an address at the bottom of the page (which seems not to have been updated since 2014). Then a
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
link which open a pdf with the header of
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
(UKAS), the first government agency on my journey. I search eCogra to make sure the pdf I found wasn't fake.
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
(but e-cogra did not update the file).

Apparently, UKAS accreditates agencies, firms, companies to perfoms different types of tests in all fields of matierals engineering, medical research, technology testing etc. And they accredited Electronic Compliance Services Limited (= eCogra) to perform a series of tests with multitudes of reference numbers. But in particular
Gaming Machine Systems
Random and Fairness Testing (RTS 7)

then
Online Gaming Systems
Some danish Standarts

then other things.

I read very rapidly the referred
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
which says things about some certification process. I'm kinda lost (the very least I can say!). Who certifies who ? Where is the casino ? Where is my slot game ? Where is my spin ?

I understand there is an RNG involved. I am fairly convinced that there are enough specialist and there is enough control that part of the software (game).

CHAPTER 3 THE REGULATIONS

I google Random and Fairness Testing (RTS 7) and finally land on
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
pages, Remote gambling and software technical standards. I don't even know if what I'm gonna find applies to me but I don't care, for the moment. I keep on
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.


The technical standards cover:

customer account information
displaying transactions
rules, game descriptions and the likelihood of winning
time-critical events
result determination
result determination for play-for-fun games
generation of random outcomes
auto-play functionality
skill and chance games with auto-play
interrupted gambling
limiting collusion/cheating
financial limits
time requirements and reality checks
responsible product design
information provision.

I am in a sense very happy to see many many rules and regulations, which do not exist at all in the bitcoin world.

The closest thing I was looking for is in
You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.


UNDERline by me
RTS requirement 7B
As far as is reasonably possible, games and events must be implemented fairly and in accordance
with the rules and prevailing payouts, where applicable, as they are described to the customer.

RTS implementation guidance 7B
a. Games should implement the rules as described in the rules available to the customer before
play commenced.

b. The mapping of the random inputs to game outcomes should be in accordance with prevailing
probabilities, pay tables, etc.

Those approximate terms (should, as far as reasonable...) kinda bother me in the first place. But I gues it's better that nothing.

But the most interesting part is just before

RTS requirement 7A
Random number generation and game results must be ‘acceptably random’. Acceptably random
here means that it is possible to demonstrate to a high degree of confidence that the output of the
RNG, game, lottery and virtual event outcomes are random, through, for example, statistical
analysis using generally accepted tests and methods of analysis. Adaptive behaviour (ie a
compensated game) is not permitted.

(...)

RTS implementation guidance 7A
a. RNG’s should be capable of demonstrating the following qualities:
i. the output from the RNG is uniformly distributed over the entire output range and game,
lottery, or virtual event outcomes are distributed in accordance with the
expected/theoretical probabilities
ii. the output of the RNG, game, lottery, and virtual event outcomes should be
unpredictable, for example, for a software RNG it should be computationally infeasible
to predict what the next number will be without complete knowledge of the algorithm
and seed value
iii. random number generation does not reproduce the same output stream (cycle), and
that two instances of a RNG do not produce the same stream as each other
(synchronise)
iv. any forms of seeding and re-seeding used do not introduce predictability
v. any scaling applied to the output of the random number generator maintains the
qualities above.


That's as far as I could get.

I think I found a lot about how the game should work. For example I learned that the the play-for-fun mode should work as the real one.
I found quite a lot from the probabilistic point of view. I am not questioning the maths behind it.

From the game point of view, it looks almost done. But it's the casino that has to deal with bets.

Maybe I didn't look at the right place so please, enlighten me.

CHAPTER FINAL

I'm not a computer expert. But I hope you'll understand what I want to say.

What is the exact implementation, or what and who guarantees it is fair ?

What prevents the casino with or without the complicity of the game designer, from say :
Code:
Player bets
> if small, normal play, log the roll, nothing fancy

> if bigger bet than usual (use data of all players/ individual player etc)

> > casino instructs game to spin

> > > if loss, display spin, take players money, log the roll, and proceed with next round

> > > if intermediate win, use a smart mix of these two outcomes, but don't make it too obvious

> > > > display spin, give player his win, log the roll, and proceed with next round
[COLOR="#FF0000"]
> > > > instruct game new roll until it's a loss, take player's money, log the roll, proceed with next round[/COLOR]

> > > if big win, log the roll, give his money and proceed with next round

Last point's aim is to not deviate from the expected distribution of large wins. At the end, distribution of outcomes (win multipliers) look totally fair.

I have no doubt that the evil people are smart enough not to rig only a specific range of bets or wins. You have to have some randomness in that implementation, to make it undetectable. But that would still give the house an extra edge (but no one plays enough rolls to see that edge. And it's not even the point. The point being, every roll must be fair.).

Edit: just putting an emphasize on the fact that maybe few bets should be rigged to remain undetectable to the toughest review of winings.

Remembering that the money withdrawn vs money deposited has nothing to do with RTP of all bets since wining are played multiple times, that extra edge can be darn big.

Are the random numbers generated by seeds containing roll number ?

Without being an expert, I know there are risk in providing technical details

What/who guarantees the integrity of logs ?

Ultimately, if I can't verify my own rolls. How can I trust people who are in charge of verifying (auditors paid by the company itself ?).

I hope this time, I'd have raised more awareness or maybe even given more confidence to people before they bash me again ;P (jk!)

Please help :))
 
Last edited:

dionysus

Good(w)ill Ambassador
CAG
MM
Joined
Apr 27, 2009
Location
the land of snow and maple syrup
Man, talk about beating a dead horse (and verbose).
Either you trust a casino...and you play.
Or you don't, and you take up knitting.
This seems pretty easy.

I don't walk into the kitchen when the chef makes my sandwich, nor into the vaults to see if my money is there. A little faith isn't such a terrible thing. But then, dunover wouldnt have his profitable Metal Milliner kiosk.
 

Jasminebed

Game old gal
Joined
Mar 13, 2008
Location
Ontario
It looks like you are doing your best to do your homework.

You are in The Netherlands, just skip al the UKGC stuff. It won't be the sites that you are playing at.

Random number generators are tens of millions of spins for most slots. There is some kind of seed probably time based, but when you push that button, internet traffic, your ISP's speed, whether you blew your nose, lit a cigarette or scratched your balls will all make it random enough. It's in nanoseconds, or maybe less.

I'd worry way more about the integrity of the casino and it's history of paying in a timely fashion.

Your example of two possible outcomes, that's a coin flip. The more times you flip, the more likely it it to approach Theoretical RTP.

Casinos that publish real RTPs, well that's all well and good. But a slot that got play by one player in a week that killed it could have an actual RTP of 105%, when it's a 97% slot theoretically.

Or it might be 93%.

The more spins, the closer it is going to be to TRTP. Higher variance slots will have larger swings.

If there are 5 million combinations possible, it would take around 50 million spins to expect TRTP plua or minus 4%. Only the casino will have 50 million spins.

Five million is pretty much Thunderstruck, a 5 reel nine line slot.

You are going to lose. You will never see that $28 you spent on movie and drink and popcorn again either.

At least gambling you might.

But you won't have seen the movie.

My local B&M has been fined at least 7 times for having their machines set lower than the measly 82% they need to pay out on pennies.

There's a whole host of CM casinos I would trust more than them.
 

roulettedonkey

Banned User - Troll - making anti-semitic posts
Joined
Jan 3, 2016
Location
nowheresville
Either you trust a casino...and you play.
(...) Or you don't, and you take up knitting.
(...) A little faith isn't such a terrible thing. But then, dunover wouldnt have his profitable Metal Milliner kiosk.

The amount of faith I am ready to put into casinos/gambling is inversely proportional to how much I value my hard earned money, be it spent on medical expenses, food, or for instance entertainment. Money is money :)

From your remarks, I take it that... we just value money - wherever it comes from (work, affiliates program?, god) - differently. And we shall respect each others' opinion on that. If discussed, maybe it should be in another topic.
 

dionysus

Good(w)ill Ambassador
CAG
MM
Joined
Apr 27, 2009
Location
the land of snow and maple syrup
A value my money fine. I trust that Bryan who operates this forum vets casinos well and knows what he's on about. I have faith accred casinos are up and up because I'm not going to drive myself mental worrying casinos are out to screw me, much like guests arent pinching pennies and that I can leave my blinds open because everyone isnt peeking in monitoring me. Faith and trust. It's gambling, not a career choice. I've bigger beasts to battle.
 

roulettedonkey

Banned User - Troll - making anti-semitic posts
Joined
Jan 3, 2016
Location
nowheresville
Here are examples of confirmed frauds in a so-called provably fair environment.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
seed changing every roll

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
skipped nonces (= roll number)

There are of courses tons of it.

Some were obvious, just like rogue online Casinos we're all familiar with. But many were smart. F** smart. Way beyond my expertise. They were made by individuals, little geniuses or pimplehead teenagers from their mom's basement.

Imagine what can be in a mysterious RTP RNG closed source software etc etc. world, with SH*TTONS of money, what kind of organization, collection of smart people and conflicts of influence there can be.


No one shall refrain from expressing their opinion. But for the sake of the discussion, it'd be nice address the fairness or security question first. THANK YOU
 

hhhelllo

Not really here
PABnonaccred
MM
Joined
May 31, 2015
Location
canada
I appreciate your efforts contributing to the forum but honestly... wouldn't you feel better if you just stopped gambling? You seem trapped in your own troubled mind about money loss and impossible bad results...

If you don't trust casinos... stop playing...
 

sueyh

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 12, 2014
Location
New Zealand
I think you forgot one very important thing here. Gamble is a way of an entertainment like dining out, drinking, or watching soccer.

If you don't like in the way how the slot works, you don't need to keep playing. It's like if you don't like the restaurant you don't need to go there.

If you believe every slots are rigged, every casinos are rigged please don't play gamble anywhere. Do you feel pity on us who keep playing on the slot that is rigged? You gave us a warning, and I believe the choice is ours now whether we keep playing or not.
 

goatwack

We'll just tell your mother we ate it all
CAG
Joined
Aug 29, 2012
Location
Londonia
I cannot understand how some people think it's ok to wear socks and sandals. Surely one of the biggest fashion crimes going
 
Top