The Random Number Generators.....

[stoneagekyus]

Hello all,

This is my first post. I need to rant. I need to rant to people who know the game and may be able to help me out. Set me straight one way or the other. Tell me Im off my rocker, or maybe I have a point, so here goes.
I started playing online poker about 3 months ago. I started playing at Pokeroom.com, because they had a cheap deposit method. I played for a while, lost a bit, but wasnt unhappy because I was having a good time. I consider myself an above average player. I was very confident I could go to this poker room, and be on the upside in terms of wins and losses. Boy, was I wrong.
My first inkling of some funny goings on at this place, was when I was beaten playing texas hold em, while I was holding a kings over full house. I was dealt pocket kings, the flop showed king, queen, seven. Three kings on the flop, in my mind, is quite a good hand. So, determined to make sure there were no hangers on chasing straights and flushes, I bet my hand quite vigorously. Only one individual called my bet. He was holding queen high.
The turn showed another queen, which gave me my full house. I went all in. This fellow called my bet. At this point, I was EXTREMELY confident I would win the hand. Lo and behold, the river showed the final queen in the deck, which of course gave him four queens. The last 3 cards shown were 3 queens. Of course on show, I realized this guy had beaten me, and I flipped. I wrote to Pokeroom and told them what I thought. Of course they brushed me off with "we use the random number generator" thing, and that was that.
Figuring maybe I was just very unlucky on that hand, I decided to try again.
Continuous very winnable second best hands continued to come my way. I was playing at the 25 cent no limit tables. I have now lost in excess of $500 canadian playing at this room.
My style of play is one of caution, whereas I do not do the all in thing when I get pocket aces, and I very seldom call an all in bet. I usually do not start aggresive betting until after the flop. At this point I am usually 80% certain I am going to win the hand.
Anyways, my style of betting is conducive to if not winning, then at least a level field.
Anyways, these losses continuted for a while, with me just thinking, ok, bad luck perhaps. Then I started noticing some patterns. Not just with me, but with everyone I was playing with.
Seems as though there are a LOT of VERY GOOD second best hands that get beat in this room. Im not talking about pocket aces , Im talking about three of a kind, straights and soforth.
It seems to me that this paricular room kind of sets up the players with second best hands. Way way too often, someone will have the pocket aces, while someone else will have pocket kings the same hand, and there will be two more people at the table with lower pocket pairs. Doesnt seem logical to me.
I whined a bit in thier little chat room, and was basically told I was nuts. I was told they deal millions of hands a day. Ok, so what? Shouldnt the same deck be used for the whole game? That would render anything else on the site meaningless, right? I was told Im just very unlucky. I doubt that as well because I do very well in live poker games, which I have been playing weekly for 20 years.
Im not an idiot either. When I try the tournament games, there is always bad beats, and when the table gets down to 3 or 4 players, it always seems there are 2 or 3 pocket pairs dealt every hand. Its like they want to get the game over with, so we can go lose more money more quickly.
It just isnt logical. I was trying to figure out what the Pokeroom would gain from this, since I was playing other people. Then someone mentioned that the cards are programmed to encourage "chasing" to increase the rake. Hmm I thought, but usually they make the maximum rake on most tables with no problem, dont they? Not on the ones I play.
Then I thought, if they have a table, and one guy walks away with all the cash, say a good sum (for me anyways) 2 or 3 hundred bucks. I would most likely cash out a good chunk of that. That would not be good for the Pokeroom would it? If the money is more spread out , say everyone gets 20 bucks or so, they would be more apt to stay and play with that money. Perhaps try some blackjack or something with it.
You know how sometimes you sit at a live table and one guy just keeps winning and winning and has all the luck? This is almost unheard of where I play. The money is very spread out, and I have to keep depositing after suffering yet another very illogical loss.
Of course, when I play the ring tables and bet a very good hand, I lose more money than if I was betting a smaller hand. It happens just way too often for it to be logical.
Thats what I think anyways. I think players are given very good second place hands to increase the rake, and to keep the money spread out. I know the rake is rarely ever reached at the tables I play. The lower end tables. There also seem to be a lot of 4 card straights dealt, so that there will be more than one winner, and of course they will bet more with a good hand, increasing the rake again.
Oh yeah, before I forget, I got so pissed off one night, I had $5.75 left in my account, I decided to try blackjack. I played 5 one dollar hands. I hit 20 three times, 18 and one bust. I lost all 5 hands in a matter of less than 2 minutes. I wont be playing blackjack again.
I just dont trust that these random number generators work. Some of the beats I see are so bad, not only with me, that I begin thinking that maybe these guys even plant employees that can see the hands. On more that one occasion, I have played for hours without a playable hand. Then some schmo comes in, sits down, wins five straight hands, then leaves. Doesnt make sense.
I would pretty much be confident, that with all these incredible second best hands, that even a professional would have trouble winning money at the ring tables. I would like to see one take $25 bucks and try it, and make public the results.
Most people I talk to say they lose money, unless they have hit a jackpot or something. Curious to know if anyone here has had success at ring games?
I would play seven card hi-lo, I would hit 23456, which is a great hand for both high and lo. One guy would call all my bets, and have Ace, 34567. So after I pump all my money into this pot, I lose on both ends. I know its not impossible to lose both with a hand like this, but its gotta be pretty damn improbable doesnt it? I mean, there we see a classic case of an extremely good second best hand getting beat. I dunno, any thoughts? Thanks for listening hehe.

 

[winbig]

That's just poker. Play at any online poker room and you're going to get pretty close to the same results. Do they set it up to gain more $ on the rake? Maybe, maybe not. It would be interesting to see a large test (3,000+ hands) on this matter at a full 10 player table to see exactly how many pots are split (omaha hi, hold'em, stud hi).

As far as 2-3 players getting PP...well, that's not all that uncommon. There's also quite a few players that will go in with weak hands (q high as in your example) and chase it to the end. In your example, I can't see why in the world he called your (you claim it to be big) flop bet when there's already a K showing on the board and he hasn't even matched his pair yet. Sounds like a weak player that just got lucky to me.

 

[chalupa]

Funny you should mention PokerRoom... the last time I played there several players were discussing a theory similar to yours. Minutes later I reraised AA allin vs JJ, my opponent flopped a set of Jacks, I turned a set of Aces, and... one guess as to what came on the river. So I was a conspiracy believer that night.

However, I have seen plenty of one-outer and runner-runner miracle suckouts on other sites, and in live casino play as well.

Keep in mind that we play many more hands per hour online than in a live casino, but we tend to only remember the notable hands (like bad beats)... not the 95% of hands we fold or that are otherwise unremarkable.

So it seems like we are experiencing a higher percentage of strange hands. And in fact we are, on an hourly basis. But not as a percentage of the number of hands dealt.

Also, if you play live games vs. generally decent players, and then play online vs. generally awful players (a quite common scenario), that would also help explain what you are seeing.

The worse the players, the longer they will stay in a hand, and so the higher number of horrendous suckouts you are going to see.

And when you have multiple bad players that call with any hope at all... well, even the best player is going to have some really bad days.

----------

My personal conspiracy theory is a bit different... if I were going to rig a poker room I wouldn't spread the money around equally, but instead would make sure the bad players lose very little, by rewarding them with river suckouts.

The good players see their opponents awful play, and start salivating. A good player realize that suckouts are part of the game, and in the long run they should get the money.

So the good players keep hunting the suckers, losing money like mad, and re-depositing. And the suckers keep miraculously winning just enough to stay in the game without taking any heavy losses.

Compare this to what might happen naturally... all the bad players eventually go broke, leaving a bunch of sharks to hunt each other. Sharks prefer easy prey, the games dry up, and the site doesn't get their rake.

Note that I don't really believe this is occurring... most days, anyway.

 

[stoneagekyus]

I understand that bad beats are part of poker. Im just saying its not possible for it to happen as often as it does, at this particular room. In fact, tonight, it happened again, where I had 10's over full house, and this fellow hit 4 jacks. I was dealt pocket 10s, and he had pocket jacks. The last two cards were jacks. Thats my argument. Two very good hands, heavily bet on, where the loser is just in shock. Over and over again.
Its not possible to be that unlucky. I have asked this room for a history of my hands played, and they will not give them too me.
I want to count up how many times this has occurred. They will take my money, but then not supply me with my playing history.
Take $25 bucks yourself and play the ring tables there. Youll see. You will lose the majority of the money on one or two great hands that come second.
If my bets were stupid, or bluffs that didnt work, then fine.
I just dont think that Im losing my money fairly. I have also read at certain poker sites, that the generator used by most software can be figured out and beaten by tenacious people who intend to cheat. The combination of shuffles is not great enough to be "totally random".
Its on Paradise Pokers integrity page. They use 2016 bit algorithms, compared to 32 bit by most sites. I dunno, fair and square, fine. I just dont think so.

 

[chalupa]

I would not be at ALL surprised to see that some of the poker sites have poor random-number generators... but that's a lot different than a deliberately rigged one.

And the RNG would have to be REALLY bad to be predictable and exploitable, especially considering how little information (in the form of exposed cards) is available (in hold'em in particular) to a potential cheater.

In stud games, I could see how a cracking program theoretically might be able to make a good guess at what pseudo-random sequence was being used based on all the cards showing, and then predict what cards would be dealt next. I think it would still be a formiddable task though.

But in any event, if you don't think you are getting a fair game and/or good customer service at PokerRoom... there is a pretty simple solution. It ain't exactly the only game in town.

 

[nodepositneeded]

Unless I am blind, didn't the original message in this post say that the flop was KQ7, and he bet strong ont he flop, yet the other player was holding Queen high... This would then give him a pair of queens... He then said he went all-in on the turn, which was another queen, giving him Kings full and his opponent three of a kind. Do you honestly think that that player is going to fold Trip queens with a board of KQ7Q... No straight and No flush??? Did I not read that post correctly?

 

[stoneagekyus]

Yes the guy could have called the bets. Thats not my main concern. My main concern is getting these winning hands over and over again, only to have them lose on the river. I am VERY confident that this particular room deals two VERY good hands every deal. I have seen far too many bad beats on hands that look very very good, not only with me, but with other players as well. There is A LOT of talk in the chat at this particular room about this. Tonight for instance, I was dealt ace queen of spades...I hit 3 spades on the flop, pretty easy decision to go all in at this point yes? The flop was king, 4, jack, of spades. Ok, so I go all in, I dunno sit down table, I think I had 1500 or so. I was sitting on a draw for a royal, but I was EXTREMELY confident in my hand. And ANYBODY who knows ANYTHING about poker would agree with me here.
Ok, so the guy calls me, he has a jack in his hand, but still, I own the hand. As soon as the king flopped and he saw it, he shoulda been gone, correct? The rest of the hand deals, and he hits 4 on the turn, and jack on the river. Now I dunno about you , but I would generously estimate that in the three months I have played at this room, this has happened at the VERY LEAST 50 times, and thats just with me. Sorry, just doesnt happen that way. And dont tell me "oh thats poker". Horsecrap. Ive been playing for 20 years every week, and I have seen more bad beats in 3 months at this place than I have seen in 20 years of live poker.
The hands are fixed to increase the betting. Or, they either have bots that play, or employees that can see the hands, that sit in at the tables.
They wont send me my hand history, they say they cant do that yet. I think they should be legally obligated to record each hand as its played.
Dont ask me why I stayed playing there for 3 months, I just figured the first month it was bad playing or bad luck. Then I figured well it cant keep up like this. Now I say, even though I may not be anywhere near a top poker player, I know what I see, and I know when there is something fishy going on.
I have yet to meet ANYONE who is up at this room, so where does all this money go? The only people I see saying they have had any success here, are those who have hit a jackpot.
Unbelievable, Ive never seen anything like this. Why dont one of you guys who think you can play go try your luck at this room?

 

[chalupa]

Why dont one of you guys who think you can play go try your luck at this room?

Well, since you are so enthusiastically endorsing the site... I'll get right on it!

 

[nodepositneeded]

First, You clearly must be new to the game of poker. If I flop the nut flush is a no-limit game, there is not way, being first to act, that I am going to go all-in, especially in your case when the board hadn't paired on the flop. The first reason being, you are not likely to get called. If I flop the nut flush, I want to make as much as possible from the hand. Second, by going all-in in that situation, other players are more than likely to call you because they would rarely put you on the nut flush. This would entice a call from many different hands, ranging from any spade to even top pair, and in your case middle pair. Regardless you would have lost the hand no matter how you played it, but I mention these points because you can't possibly be that experienced when it comes to online poker. I have accounts on nearly every online poker site, especially the large ones and consider my self a very experienced player both online and off. You will see many beats, but you will also learn that you must play your hands differently in various situations online.

 

[stoneagekyus]

Ok advice noted. Still, I dont think the .000000001% odds this guy had to hit should have come through.
You know what? Despite the fact that I may have played the hand wrong according to you, it doesnt change the fact that a flush is a playable hand at any time in holdem. It doesnt change my argument that there are two good hands dealt every deal, even when the table is down to 3 or 4.
I played again tonight, yes how stupid can one be. I played ONLY ace 8 or up. I won a couple tourneys this afternoon. So I cant be all that bad a player.
I lost 8, count them 8, straight all in hands after I won these tables. I lost to a straight with a set of 9s, I lost to a flush with a set of queens. AFTER THE FLOP. I called all in with pocket jacks, this one dork stays with 3-4, and hits two threes, one on flop, and to no ones surprise, one on the river.
I dont know about you, but when I play these good hands, and in my mind, you cant always do the same thing, so sometimes I go all in, of course with the ace high flush, and sometimes I sit back.
It just doesnt matter. They wont give me my hand history for a reason.
You guys have been very helpful and cool about this, but no matter how you try to explain it, no matter how I may have misplayed the hand, I still think its fixed. There is no other explanation. Ive learned my lesson. I wont go back.
Its just not logically possible for one person to be as unlucky as I have been in the 3 months ive been there.
You know it would be easier to take, if say, once in a blue moon I was third best hand. Then I would say ok I screwed up. Im NEVER third best. Im NOT new to poker, well the online stuff yes. More bad beats in 3 months online than in 20 years of live poker. And I played a LOT.
I dont think Ive ever been this frustrated about something my entire life. I would estimate I have been "rivered" over 200 times at this place.
I just want to see my hands played so I can see if Im just overreacting. Its not like I lost one hand then flipped, its been over and over and over again. Otherwise, I wouldnt be saying its fixed. Its done that way to get the players off the table to another table to spend more money. No doubt in my mind. Congrats to all those who can win at these places, I am jealous.

 

[stoneagekyus]

Well, since you are so enthusiastically endorsing the site... I'll get right on it!

I think Ive seen you playing there havent I chalupa? Maybe Im wrong.

 

[nodepositneeded]

I'm not questioning your play at all, just simply saying it seemed as thought it was a strange play to go all-in while first to act when flopping the nut flush with no board pair. Like someone stated earlier in this post. You want the guy with J4 calling that EVERY single time. Yes, you will get beat, but not nearly as much as you will win. If there was a great deal of action before you when you flopped the nut flush, then there would be more of a reason to go all-in, and in my opinion if you decide that's your best bet, you should be hoping for as many callers as possible, because it is VERY unlikely J4 will win that hand very often. However, I myself do not care for that particular site. I have been beat in some of the strangest ways in higher limit cash games as well as tournaments, but I don't believe that poker is rigged. There are many posts on the Internet that I agree and disagree with. For instance, some bring an argument that poker sites deal hands like that so that there is more action therefore allowing the maximum rake to be reached, others say that in your situation, the J4 wins more often so that in a ring game, a player will not be eliminated thus allowing for the most players possible at the table to contribute to the rake. I think those are valid points, but as others will state, there is no reason a poker room would ever do this. They make enough money as it is, and would not jeopardize losing long-term players by allowing this to happen. Regardless, I continue to play and be beaten in tough situations, and as frustrating as it is I do not quit because I love the game and more often than not am successful while playing. If you ever are looking for a new site to play, I would suggest www.royalvegaspoker.com. For some reason I prefer this site over all of the other larger ones like PP and UB. Hope that my comments/feedback didn't offend you in any way. Sometimes I just like to state my opinion.

 

[chalupa]

I think Ive seen you playing there havent I chalupa? Maybe Im wrong.

I have played there (and every major site), not as chalupa though. Mostly I've played pot-limit omaha there, and mostly just working off bonuses. I prefer other sites.

Royal Vegas Poker that was mentioned is reputable in my experience. It is part of the (big) Prima Poker network. For those concerned about game-rigging, I think Prima Poker would be far less likely than a small independent site to succumb to any such temptation and/or to have a RNG that was able to be hacked.

The rake policies on Prima Poker sites seem to be worse than on the other biggies (particularly for 1-on-1 play), but if you are careful you can find some really juicy games that more than make up for it.

 

[Nazareth]

Stone- I didn't see this thread when I wrote my thread below this one- please have a look at it as it describes basically what you just described. I've been noticing something funny too there. I only play for playm money- so I'm not too worried bout losing- but I been noticing patterns in pokerrroom. As you say- IF you are not in the right seat- you WILL get dealt VERY playable/winnable hands and get beat very consitantly. You know what I noticed? IF I watch which seat is winning consistantly, then I'll leave hte table and find another table where that winning seat is open. I'll sit there and lo and behold, I'll start winning. At first I thought it was just a fluke- But nope- it is very consistant- too consistant- it takes awhile to see which seats are consistantly winning (Because just for giggles, the table will pass out winning hands to other seats at random) however, once you see which ones they are-

try going into another poker room and istting at that spot- You'll need to be quick because the winning seats sometimes only last for about ten rounds- once you start losing- take note of which seat is now the 'hot seat' and go tro another room. SDounds nuts I know- but I've been winning consistantly doing this- Some days though I can't get the right seats & have gone for like 6-8 hours straight losing. IF you start losing, go to a lower stakes game until you start winning again- Don't get stubborn like me and stay- I lost $33,000 in a little over 10 hours- I couldn't find the right seat & everything I did was getting beat- My staights were getting beat, my full houses were getting beat- I'd fold a hand & the next hand would win with a pair!!!

I don't mind peeps having awesome days & consistantly losing to them- but my gosh- there really does seem to be a pattern here with poker room.

I've noticed that the girl in the red dress, the guy in the tux, and the guy in the white shirt hit rather consistantly (They will go through 'spells' where they don't- during these times, it's good to go to lower stakes games) But when they are hitting, you'll see them getting bettable hands MUCH more often than the other players- Anyways- next time you play (Play for fake money) watch and try what I say to do- I've literally turned extreme losing streaks into winning ones in a matter of a few hands after changing tables and getting in the seats that were winning.

I love poker rooms software- I hope I'm wrong about htis because it's the best software I've seen (If anyone has another one that looks as good and is a simple to use, please let me know)

You mentioned something very interesting- that you feel the decks are set to make people chase- I'm noticing that that might just be the case especially when like you say you consistantly get dealt very winnable hands & keep getting beat- Now, I could understand that happening every now and again, but my gosh- when there are 'off days' it happens so consistantly it's laughable (unless you're playing for real money) and it seems that you are getting dealt cards that make you chase much too often & you consistantly lose the hands (Unless you move to another table and sit at those seats that were winning in the previous table- then you'll be dealt the winning hands while others will get the chaser hands consistantly)

Anyway- check it out- tell me what you think after trying this with play money-

 

[555YY]

i have played poker room several times, finishing off a bonus while checking out their site at 1/2 limits, first time i was up 200$ (not counting the bonus) at 1/2, 2nd time i basically broke even

i'm not stating for the record i'm for or against the rigged theory, i just want to state that i have won on the site, of course i had much more than 25$ in my bankroll to begin wiht

 

[Nazareth]

onem ore thing I want to mention about pokerroom. It seems that an innordinant amount of straights come up on the board. I haven't been playing poker that long and don't really know if this is 'normal'? I also noticed that whenever there appears to be a straight comming up that the betting gets real heavy which is normal I guess, but the amount of times these straights comes up seems a bit excessive?

 

[Nazareth]

just played there for an hour- here's the rundown of how the hands played out & I'm not kidding.

Str-Str-Str-Str-Str-Str-Full-Str-Flush-Str-Flush-2Pair-Flsuh-2pair-Teaser/pair won-3kind-pair-Flush-Flush-Fullhouse-Teaser/pair won-Str-Str-Teaser/pairwon-Str-Str-Pair-Str-Teaser/pairwon-Straight

I went for several hands without anything then won three hands in a row, then had three 'Almost' Hands right after the wins that couldn't quite make it but kept me betting till the turn, then got nothing

I don't know if this is unusual or not? To me it just seems that it's way too many straights comming up- All but 3 of those straights were 4 cards on the board to make the straight- the other three were three cards where people held the other two cards. I could not beleive what I was seeing when I went in with all the straights right off the bat like that- but it really isn't unusual at pokerroom to see that. Is this unusual to see this many?

 

[maaster]

stoneagekyus listening to your story
i have come up with a better strategy for you

when you got dealt rags and somebody raises (obvious because he has the pocket rockets) you just call because you get runner runner lol

tried it jet ?

in the casino here where i live i used to bet @ the BJ table only on the people who are winning cause they will keep on winning

 

[nafanny29]

stoneagekyus listening to your story
i have come up with a better strategy for you

when you got dealt rags and somebody raises (obvious because he has the pocket rockets) you just call because you get runner runner lol

tried it jet ?

A lot of people on Crypto seem to be trying it VERY SUCESSFULLY lately against me

 

[Nazareth]

alright- I just D'loaded pokerstars sotware & played about 3 hours & there weren't nearly the amount of straights on the board as pokerroom & another thing I noticed was that the winnings hands were very randomly spread around the table- not like poker room where certain seats will get 4-5 winning hands in a row. I dunno folks- I aint saying pokerroom is whacked- be your own judge- but this is just what I been noticing lately

Nafanny- could you explain that strat in more common language- I aint too up on poker speak- if I get dealt 'rags'? then call when? Because 'runners' will be free? What are rtunners?

Yes- I'm a dohhead & don't know pokerspeak

 

[nafanny29]

"Rags" are any two poor starting cards (like 6c and 3d)
Runners are normally the turn and river cards both helping your crap hand get very lucky. ie you call your 6c and 3d on a board of AK5 and the turns a 2 and river a 4 to give you the best hand (the nuts) and beat someone with "the rockets" ie AA.

 

[Nazareth]

Ah ok thanks-- that river card always makes my ulcer flare lol- how many times have I had a sure bet with a straight only to have it broken by a flush on the river? Too many lol

When you guys got something like K-spade/9-Heart before the flop & you call one small bet, like $10, then the guy next to you raises & by the time itr gets back to you, the bet is at $30, would you fold or call? I keep getting stung by raise happy peeps & don't know wether it'd be better to call or fold- Seems more often than not I end up losing the hand, but the pot is usually a big one & I'm not sure if it offsets the -$40 or not (I'm not a good stats person).

 

[nafanny29]

Against a raise and a re-raise I would only take AA, KK AKs and possibly AK AQs and QQ in to battle. Every other hand I would throw away.

Im no expert though so maybe someone else would like to add their advise and wisdom.

 

[Nazareth]

so only the strongest cardas then. I'll give that a try today- better to lose 20 than 40 I guess. Hard throwing away something like K-9 though, especially if you already have 20 invested & get raised. The worst is throwing it away & then seeing a flop of K-2-9 or something lol. But I guess i nthe long run it pays to fold- Hard to discipline myself though lol. Gonna try it today though. I just started playin on pokerstars yesterday & went from $1000 play money to $2400- not a huge gain, & I wouldn't have had even that if I hadn't hit the big pot toward the end. My problem is I play to many hands & get suckered by the chronic raisers & don't have a strong enough hand to do so.

Thanks ofr the tip- gonna try it now.

 

[chalupa]

K9 offsuit is craaaaaaaaaap.

On a full table against typical players, throw it away in any position except for free from the big blind, or possibly for half a bet (or less) from the small blind, or maybe for a blind-steal situation if it's folded around to you on the button.

The problem with something like King-rag or Ace-rag is that if you pair your high card and get action... there is a good chance you have the worst hand.

If it is raised preflop and the flop is a "good" one for you, like K32... you often either win a small pot or lose a big one. If you get action, it's probably from someone with a hand like AA, AK, KQ, or maybe a set of 3s or 2s.

Sure, sometimes you'll get someone with QQ who can't stand to throw it away... but again, it's going to be a small pot because even if the QQ is aggressive rather than just calling you down, are you going to feel comfortable raising him?

And there are the in-between flops that LOOK good but can still cause you big trouble. Let's say you call a raise and a reraise with K9 and the flop is AK9 or KQ9... are you happy about that flop if you bet it and get raised? What about if you flop a straight with QJT on board and there is heavy three-way action after the flop?

So you really need to catch a miracle flop like K92 or K99, or maybe A99 (if your opponents with an Ace don't fear the 99 on board) to both get action and win a big pot.

Of course depending on the players and your position, you MAY be able to play it profitably in the long-run... but only with a great deal of experience and ability to guage your opponents. And even then you're really not giving up much by tossin' it. (Again, talking about a full table, not shorthanded).

I would wait for a real King hand like AK, and make some other sucker with the K9 pay.

Again, in general:

A hand that WINS SMALL pots and LOSES BIG pots is not a hand you want to play.