the Fortune lounge switch

scrollock

Senior Member
playing atlantic city at royal vegas

played 368 hands @ $1 result -$80

changed to vegas strip at royal vegas

played 80 hands @ $1 result -$47

had $30 in platinum play, so decided to play there out of interest

all gone in 57 hands

total result 505 hands played @ $1 each for a total loss of $157

can someone please let me know, when they take the swich off please?
 

scrollock

Senior Member
lol, i couldnt resist, just went back in, lost 18 hands out of 20

thing i have noticed, over the 500 hands i have played so far, i have busted every single one where i have had 12-16 total
 

caruso

Banned User - repetitive violations of 1.6 - troll
scrollock said:
playing atlantic city at royal vegas, total result 505 hands played @ $1 each for a total loss of $157

can someone please let me know, when they take the swich off please?
No, but someone can tell you how ridiculous a result that is: 5.9 SDs.

I would be VERY interested to see your playcheck records for this. If you wouldn't mind, please either paste them into this thread or email them to me directly.
 

Macgyver

Dormant account
PABnononaccred
Pardon my ignorance, but is the 5.9 SDs in reference to everything played? OK, I see it's in reference to the very first post.

But how can you figure out standard deviations when it's two different games played?

That quote you post, caruso, is very confusing and misleading as that's not exactly what he posted. The player played Vegas Strip as well, not just Atlantic City.

I keep editing this, but he even adds the hands played at Platinum Play into that grand total of 505 hands. Two different casinos, at least two different games, and you can calculate SD? :what:
 
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caruso

Banned User - repetitive violations of 1.6 - troll
Macgyver said:
Pardon my ignorance, but is the 5.9 SDs in reference to everything played? OK, I see it's in reference to the very first post.
I'll pardon your ignorance, up to the point you say there's anything "confusing" or "misleading" in my comments, at which point the pardon ceases. Everything you don't understand is confusing. Once understood, the confusion ends.

I erred on the side of caution, using a generic 0.5% house edge. The house edge on those two games is almost identical, at 0.36%, so the actual SD is marginally higher. I take a guess at pretty much bang on 6. You can tweak to the umpteenth decimal place, but it's of no practical relevance.

EDIT: Taking into account the lower house edge, that's exactly 6 SDs.

Of course, with no evidence from the poster it's meaningless. I would LIKE to see the evidence of this claim, because it's about the most outlandish I've ever read regarding Microgaming.
 
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gfkostas

Ex-Bonus Whore
Couldn't agree more with caruso.Please proceed with evidence otherwise personally i consider the posts almost slanderous.
 

sirius

Senior Member
scrollock said:
playing atlantic city at royal vegas

played 368 hands @ $1 result -$80

changed to vegas strip at royal vegas

played 80 hands @ $1 result -$47

had $30 in platinum play, so decided to play there out of interest

all gone in 57 hands

total result 505 hands played @ $1 each for a total loss of $157

can someone please let me know, when they take the swich off please?
I think you are making these up or you don't know how to play at all.
 

GrandMaster

Ueber Meister
CAG
sirius said:
I think you are making these up or you don't know how to play at all.
I think you have to do deliberately stupid things like hitting hard 19s and 20s to get this sort of results. I would certainly like to see the Playcheck logs.
 

gfkostas

Ex-Bonus Whore
My input on this is that he's clearly bullshitting.He could post screenshots easily but am afraid we just wasting our time replying to him folks.
 

scrollock

Senior Member
hi since i'm back, can you calculate the SD on this session for me.

over 5000 hands @ 1 a hand +240

or to cherry pick the session

approx 2000 hands @1 a hand +350

however followed (different casino same group)

over 156 hands @1 a hand - 87

admittedly over the long run they all even out, however as each hand is meant to be independent, these long steaks shouldn't happen

also i should point out, although the hands quoted in my original post were consequetive, they were part of a long session, so the overall SD would be a lot less, but again they are independent i.e. the hands before and after these dont make a difference.

plus also after making the original posts, i went back in after a couple of hours and won 100 over 500 hands, again at 1 a hand
 

scrollock

Senior Member
ive just seen the 2nd page of this thread


however followed (different casino same group)

over 156 hands @1 a hand - 87

have got a screen shot of this one somewhere, cant find the playcheck logs for the others, anyway i will not provide playcheck logs to anyone even if i could as they contain transaction ids and i dont know who i'm giving them to.
 

thelawnet

Dormant account
Macgyver said:
Pardon my ignorance, but is the 5.9 SDs in reference to everything played? OK, I see it's in reference to the very first post.

But how can you figure out standard deviations when it's two different games played?

That quote you post, caruso, is very confusing and misleading as that's not exactly what he posted. The player played Vegas Strip as well, not just Atlantic City.

I keep editing this, but he even adds the hands played at Platinum Play into that grand total of 505 hands. Two different casinos, at least two different games, and you can calculate SD? :what:
It's pretty easy to work out. If you wanted to find the standard deviation of a sample of two different games you can easily calculate the standard deviation of the whole sample. However, it is not really necessary, as the two games are pretty similar:

AC bj - 8 decks, late surrender vs Vegas Strip - 4 decks, no surrender.

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shows us the standard deviation of blackjack for various combinations of decks and split rules. Vegas Strip appears to have std deviation of 1.1666, and AC 1.1680. The difference is too small to bother with. Let's take 1.168 to err on the side of safety - this is most favourable to the casino.

Then the chance of the loss described is given in Excel by:

=NORMDIST(-157,0-(505*0.00365),SQRT(505)*1.168,TRUE)

Taking the reciprocal gives us that this is a 590 million to one event. In other words it would be damning if it were true.

However I do not believe it for a minute. Not a second.

Too many claims like this come and go without ever being backed up.

If they were to cheat, they would not do so obviously - they only need about 1.5 sd for people to bust out any of their signup offers, so why would any sane and reputable casino group such as Fortune Lounge want to cheat in such a conspicuous and unbelievable way.

OP has refused to post playlogs, claiming that transaction IDs could somehow be used against him (how?); even so, you could copy them into a spreadsheet and delete the ID column safely. Looks like hot air to me.
 

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