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Texas Hold-em bonus

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Avatar73, Oct 10, 2007.

    Oct 10, 2007
  1. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Ok, I seem to have done a lot of losing recently! But this one actually winds me up! Texas HE bonus, played with optimal strategy calc.

    Ante: 5
    Amount at start: 416.04
    Amount wagered: 1,000
    Amount at end: 21.04

    Return: 41.6 %

    Right, well on beatingbonuses.com calculator, put in
    Bonus: 416.04
    Amount wagered: 1,000
    Bet Size: 5

    And we have

    Chance of Gain (ie not losing it all like me): 99.9%
    And 2 standard deviations below the mean would be: 157.45

    So this leaves me at LESS than THREE standard deviations below expectation!

    Is this dodgey or what? I expect to have bad days, but this is outrageous. Just before this I hit a royal for 4k, so it's not all bad news, but ever since then it's just gone down the drain, like they're trying to get it back? Ok well thats a bit paranoid and highly unlikely in reality i would have thought, but all the same, 3 SD below the mean, in such a short wagering ..... ?
  2. Oct 10, 2007
  3. Gaahl

    Gaahl Quit Gambling

    Store worker
    I belive that game has been discussed alot on here, arrest me if im wrong.

    Don't know if there was a conclusion, atleast my conclusion on the game is that it is not random...
  4. Oct 10, 2007
  5. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Ah, I think you are thinkging of THE Shootout - Whereas I played THE bonus.

    These are 2 different games, and the one I played should all be by the book, well studied and analysed, and all the maths should work.

    Shootout is a bit of a mystery generally... there's some shady clauses and seems to work like a pretty kind of slot - either that or they "cheat" by seeing all 5 board cards plus 2 sets of starting cards and pick the best before they begin.

    But to get this bad on Bonus.... ? :eek:
  6. Oct 13, 2007
  7. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    OK i have flushed another 100 down the toilet that is this game.

    I have lost 500 in 1400 wagered.

    This is below 4 SD below the mean. Does anyone know what is going on?

    Even the maths gives chance of gain (ie not busting out) as 1.000
    Should I suspect this game? Ok perhaps the sample size is small, but then if you lost 60 hands of BJ in a row out of 60 played, wouldn't you suspect something on this sample size?
  8. Oct 13, 2007
  9. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Planet Earth
    At which casino did this occur? Perhaps the amount wagered was the total of initial bets, rather than the total wagered including raises? Is some hand record data available to confirm correct strategy and other issues?

    I'd recommend not betting with 5 initial ante in the future. The average final bet size will be nearly 20, resulting in a good chance of a large win/loss. However, the losses should not be as large as the numbers you listed.
  10. Oct 13, 2007
  11. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member


    Ok it was at PaddyPower, the amount wagered was total INCLUDING any and all raises. I know this cus I was playing for a bonys with WR 1600 currently stands at 200, and I checked to make sure raises counted (and of course, obviously, they do). So 1400 Wagered. I had 400 from my royal flush win, then 100 deposit, now stands at 10, so 490 loss over 1400.

    Yes, 5 ante (and 20 per game in JoB, 4x5 hands) is perhaps a bit, but it's mainly time issues to get thru WR. It brings bigger variance, but still has the same expected outcome overall, and over the longer term I think the variance is worth it in order to save so much time.

    PP has all the logs, but you click on the session, then on each hand, and then you get the info, so without emailing their CS I don't think it would be easy to export.

    Expected return: 482.52
    Chance of Gain: 0.999
    2 SD below mean: 182.87

    My out come: 10 :eek::eek2::confused::mad:
  12. Oct 13, 2007
  13. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Bexhill on sea, England
    I've played this game a little bit on various platforms and I nearly always leave the game with the word 'rigged' ringing in my ears! I have no stats to back it up or anything - I just don't like the game much.

    I theory I would expect it to be fairly low variance as you can't win anything mega like you can with Caribbean stud for example, but just like that game the cards just seem to take the piss a bit too often!
    Mind you, I usually have ringing in my ears after playing BlackJack as well - so maybe I better stick to slots!
  14. Oct 13, 2007
  15. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Yes... perhaps Shootout is rigged as they can hide behind unclear rules, such as PLAYER is dealt random cards, but not mentioning the 2 bot players and how they are dealt.

    However, the T-H-E Bonus is pretty transparant... random cards from a single deck.... so this shouldn't happen at all. I accept "bad luck" and "bad variance" but when it gets this ridiculous, I have to start asking some serious questions.
  16. Oct 13, 2007
  17. Mr_Zoidberg

    Mr_Zoidberg Dormant account PABrogue PABnononaccred PABnonaccred

    The bar
    I think you are making one big mistake. Did you read the small text below the calculator?
    *The chance of gain result is the chance of ending above the deposit balance with unlimited bankroll. ...

    So your conclusion is not correct(3 SD bla bla), because you are talking about the chance of busting, not the chance of gain.

    But you are right that it is still very odd to lose ~32 units(416/13) in only ~77 bets(1000/13) :?

    I played it once at Intercasino and had very experiences with it :)
  18. Oct 13, 2007
  19. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    Ah, appreciated!

    However, I think you are wrong, coz I wagered that amount already.
    Thus I performed my calculations assuming that what I wagered was the TOTAL being wagered (ignoring the fact that the real WR was higher).

    Given a wagering of 1400 and a "bonus" (or balance) of 500, the chance of gain is 0.999. As you see, in a wagering of 1400 and start balance of 500, i lost all but 10.

    So, although it can be easy to confuse risk of ruin/risk of gain, I think my conclusions are correct!

    Thanks for your point tho; also seeing as I never dipped below "0" in wagering 1400 (due to multiple deposits :p) this is effectively working off infinite bankroll.
    1 person likes this.
  20. Oct 16, 2007
  21. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    OK, finally got the funds in place to put an end to this chapter in the whole sorry saga. Basically I had a few bonuses to finnish WR and now I'm all squared away there's no point in playing here any more. So overall.....

    Total Wagered = 4810
    Total money put in = 615
    Total left at end = 56

    Total win = -559
    Payback % = 4251/4810 * 100 = 88.378 %
    Theoretical payback % = 99.47 %

    Now from the calculator:
    Bonus = 615 (ie money in)
    Wager = 4810
    Bet Size = 5

    Bottom end of 2 SD (ie the end you don't want to be!): 33.89
    Expected Return: 589.31

    So in this slightly larger sample, at least it comes within 2 SD of the mean. But nowhere near the expected return. And so I am within 2SD this time... what if I am next time... and the next... all at the lower end? I should at some times finnish 2SD above, to "balance" this out, but looking back over my records I have never made such a gain. So perhaps in the slightly longer run this time I was "dead unlucky" but this doesn't make me any happier! I lost 500 within the first 1200 wagered. Then the rest panned out about as expected, more or less. I think I had a similar experience at another wagerworks casino, ie losing massively for a short period before getting more normal results.

    I quote some of the official rules from this casino below...
    So there shouldnt be any T-H-E shootout dodgey bot cards rubbish. But... I don't see it saying the the community cards are random anywhere.

    Should I ask the casino about this?

    EDIT: Including bonus, points, and 5p I found on the floor, my net loss was 356.46 which isn't as bad the raw results, but still very :(
  22. Oct 17, 2007
  23. niklas

    niklas Dormant account

    Today I played Virgin Casino's weekly 30 bonus with a 35x WR, as I am wont to do, on Texas Holdem bonus. My strategy is not always optimal because I can't be arsed inputting the cards in my equity calculator all the time.

    After wagering 1050 with an ante size of 0.50 I ended at +110, which is just a bit over 2 standard deviations from the expected 24.39.

    Variance - it cuts both ways. I've played a lot of holdem bonus att WagerWorks and CryptoLogic casinos and my results have been within expectation.
  24. Oct 17, 2007
  25. Avatar73

    Avatar73 Experienced Member

    So it's you stealing my money then! :eek2:

    lol, well good for you, at least it seems you can win (at least an tiddly antes ;) ). Just wait till you lost 500 in 1.2k wagered! when you hit less than 4sd below the mean you will also be a bit like this guy :eek::confused::mad:

    Anyway, thanks for some stats that seem to show this game is more fair!

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