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So how do you prove an online casino is not fair?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by hippo925, Sep 9, 2009.

    Sep 9, 2009
  1. hippo925

    hippo925 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    medical field
    Location:
    so cal
    first of all, i'm not saying whether or not i think any casino or software is fair or not. What i have noticed is that whenever someone posts anything about a casino not being on the up and up or questions their experience in a particular session, etc... they are always told to prove it.

    So my question is... let's say that any one of us did hypothetically have a good reason to question a casino or software and everyone starts yelling at him / her to "prove it or shut up." How in the world would he / she prove it? Seriously.

    1. Should he/she just wait for someone at the casino to accidently send him a bunch of logs and data that incriminate the casino like in the poker site case?

    2. Should he/she go ahead and continue to play until a gazillion bajillion spins of data can be shown to satisfy those that always say "well it's such a small sample...it takes millions of spins...etc."

    3. Should he/she contact the governing body that oversees these online casinos to look into the matter?

    4. Should he/she contact the software developer, like rtg as an example, since they would never allow their software to be used in an unethical way?

    5. Should he/she just go on forums to plead their case and pray that not everyone just tells them to "prove it or shut up?"

    The reason i am asking this question is that i was wondering what would have happened in the poker site case if the player did not get those logs accidently sent to him. Would that player have been treated just as another "sore loser" too?

    In other words... how could anyone EVER prove anything if all we do is make excuses for casinos? Seriously.. a video poker game has an unfair gamble feaure (software update malfunction?), missing wilds on a slot machine (software glitch, but game pays correctly?"), dynamic weighting on video slots?, etc... When is it called CHEATING?

    I've always stated that i think the good online casinos use somewhat random software, but not in the way we all think random should be. It is entertainment only so i sometimes play with that in mind.

    Online casinos have very little overhead compared to B & M so shouldn't it be REALLY evident in the slot paybacks? I mean, i would think online slots should play MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better than B & M slots... but do they?

    Guess what i am wondering is, when do we start asking for casinos to PROVE TO US THAT THEY ARE FAIR?

    Not really a rant or anything... just curious as to what other people think they would do if they suspected a casino of having unfair games. (ps... anyone thinking of saying "well, just don't play there!" would be missing the point.);)
     
    5 people like this.
  2. Sep 9, 2009
  3. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Unfortunately, there is little that can be done by an individual player to PROVE a casino is cheating.

    Most cases have fallen into 2 classes.

    1) The cock-up, where an inept employee (or aggrieved ex employee) places the wrong thing into the public domain, and players then have concrete indications of HOW the cheating is taking place.

    2) A groundswell of opinion that something isn't right, and enough players complaining that there HAS to be something going on. It is still hard to prove though, but if enough players grumble, the cheating becomes assumed knowledge, and players will start to avoid the software.


    Many instances that are first brought to attention by 1) or 2) CAN then be proven if enough players pool their data, and someone volunteers to do the analysis.

    The AP scandal was blown by a leak, and players pooling data and expertise.

    The English Harbour VP bug was exposed by enough players noticing that the double-up won on only 30% or so of attempts, instead of 50%. Pooling data made this statistically significant, which constitutes "proof" in a mathematical sense, because it can be shown that the probability that there is NO "cheating" is very small, and if this goes below 5%, it is usually considered "proof" in a statistical sense.

    Cheating casinos though, are going to HIDE their cheating, so this makes proof VERY hard. There have been instances in the past where cheating software has been "outed" and rogued in general. A couple I recall are Casinova and Elka/Oyster systems. I also caught one myself, Lucky Chance casino, where once I was experienced enough, I realised the maths meant I could NEVER lose, but I WAS. Shortly after, they closed in a bit of a hurry, never to be seen again.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Sep 9, 2009
  5. chayton

    chayton aka LooHoo CAG PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    Freelance Designer
    Location:
    Edmonton Canada
    I'm sorry but #4 had me laughing....you could have used a better example than RTG who licensed MOST of the rogue casinos out there and seem to care less when players get screwed! (snicker...)
     
  6. Sep 9, 2009
  7. thelawnet

    thelawnet Dormant account

    Occupation:
    programmer
    Location:
    UK
    Ahem:
    http://www.casinomeister.com/forums...hematical-proof-english-harbour-cheating.html

    It's not that hard.

    Let's establish a few things:

    1. many casinos make no claims about their slots. They can pay out 1% and it wouldn't be 'cheating'. Unless you have a claim made by the casino that can be contradicted, you're wasting your time.
    2. if they do make claims, then you should be able to record the results of your spins and see if they are within normal boundaries or not. This is not rocket science.
    3. Online casinos really do not need to cheat. Cryptologic slots payout around 92%. That means if you deposit $100 and play it through 12 times, redepositing as required, you would expect to lose $100. Why cheat, when the casino turns a profit already? People are voluntarily playing house expectation games. That's a dream come true for the casino owner.
    4. There's no point in making cheating claims based on a couple of hundred spins. This is NEVER enough. Meaningless.

    Only if he has some credible evidence.

    As above.

    Sure, why not.

    The problem is most people complaining haven't even STARTED to formulate a cogent argument as to how they think they have been wronged.

    'RTG is rigged' is playground talk.

    That's what we get usually.

    If you can't be bothered to formulate something as basic as "I played 1000 spins at $1 and lost $950" then why should you not be told to shut up?

    Like I said above, if you deposit $1000 in a casino, you are very likely to lose it. That's the way the games are designed. On balance, the player loses. The player loses, the house wins. If the casino cheated, the house would still win - nothing has changed. There's little motive to cheat.

    In a poker game player A loses big, player B wins big, then player A wins big, player B loses big. The cheating was designed to CHANGE that, so that player A always wins. Clear motive to cheat.

    Dynamic weighting is legitimate. When you play a slot, sorry, but you're playing a game for entertainment purposes. They can do much what they like. No guarantees on weighting at all.

    If you want proper regulated games, play tables or video poker.

    No that's not really true. The online casinos can set whatever payout they like. If they want to make their slots payout 90%, 95% or 98%, who are you to tell them otherwise? Anyway, 'better' is hard to quantify. You could boost one of the pays by a few coins, and it could turn a game from 95% to 100%. You wouldn't notice that in the short run at all.

    I think the problem is people are paying too many bonus slots. These bleed you dry then give most of it back when you get the free spins.

    If I'd played there, I'd make an effort to prove it and get my money back. I've had a feeling software was cheating a couple of times, both times I was right, and I got my money back.

    But please forgive me if, as I said above, I reserve judgement on 'XYZ casino is cheating' claims until the complainant can translate this into something measurable.
     
    7 people like this.
  8. Sep 9, 2009
  9. silcnlayc

    silcnlayc Just one more spin pleez! CAG MM PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    IT Director of Operations
    Location:
    Left Hungary
    Very good questions and observations...

    The first issue was when I said that I KNOW Green Light was changed and I was told I was dreaming, wrong, whatever and it was said..Come to find out, it was changed due to the wrong payout being paid during the bonus round which was caught over a year later by the casinos..anyone remmebr that? But I was told that didn't count when the casinos owned up to this change because it was a payout error....um...it was CHANGED without mention...but yet it didn't count..interesting...

    ..I came on here over a year ago and said the same thing about changes in payouts, bonuses, spins etc.. but was pooh poohed and told "prove it" and now it seems everything I pointed out is coming to pass. I had no concrete proof except the years of playing under my belt which was "not good enough" and was pretty much snickered at when I kept trying to point out the oddities in play..

    I have stopped trying to interact with this board a few months ago in any kind of interaction on this subject due to this...and I have sat back and "watched" these same issues resurfacing now with many that are actually believing and pointing out the same things I was boo'ed for...strange how it all comes to pass isn't it?

    No, I have no "proof" just search my name and it will show up...

    .
     
    1 person likes this.
  10. Sep 9, 2009
  11. JHV

    JHV <a href="http://www.casinomeister.com/meister_awar

    Occupation:
    Losing a Poker Bankroll on House Edge
    Location:
    Perennial Traveler
    This is a good thread. I have a similar issue myself which I haven't posted about as I have no proof. But in a hypothetical scenario where a gun was pointed at my head and my living or dying depending on giving the correct answer to the following question: "Was there cheating involved in xxx situation?"

    I would answer "HELL YES!" in about 0.1 seconds.

    But the only way I could prove it would probably be if I was the person cheating. Which I'm not, so....

    ----------

    thelawnet, you probably know I'm a fan of yours, but there is a logical fallacy in the "Why would they cheat? They already make so much money." argument, an argument I've heard used 5000 times on forums in the last decade.

    Never underestimate the power of human greed. In the eyes of many, $1.5 million is better than $1 million if there is close to 0% chance that cheating for that extra half mil can be 'exposed' or otherwise hurt your bottom line.

    Or it could be that the owners aren't the ones doing the cheating. It could be a lowly coder or someone who has access to certain backroom operations.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2009
    1 person likes this.
  12. Sep 9, 2009
  13. love2winalot

    love2winalot Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Roulette Player
    Location:
    Philippines/Visiting Las vegas
    Hiya: I will chime in here, since i actually did accuse a casino of cheating a couple months ago..........

    1. You have to record the results. This provided the, "Proof", of the losses.
    2. Those losses have to fall outside what is considered normal varience, and do it on an consistant basis.
    3. This has to cover all range of bets, or higher end bets.

    ALL OF THIS TAKES MONEY, $$$$$$$$ YOUR MONEY $$$$$$$$.

    You need tens of thousands of $$$, and all the above, just to have a case that might warrent some attention. Who of us has the money, time, and patience to try to do this? And if you did, "PROVE" it, then what? Are they going to give your money back to you? Are they going to pay you to keep it quiet? Are they just going to start letting you win? No......no.....and no.

    The Casino will do exactly what it did in my case. They will review all the bets. They will say they have no need to cheat, and that your losses, "although extremly rare", were just bad luck.

    As a player, all you can really do, is just decide that it does not matter if it is cheating, or really bad luck, maybe i should not play there anymore..........and go someplace else.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. Sep 9, 2009
  15. DiamondGeezer

    DiamondGeezer Dormant account PABnononaccred2 PABnoaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    Antiques Dealer
    Location:
    NOT Pennsylvania!!!
    SHUT UP HIPPO. OR PROVE IT :D
     
  16. Sep 9, 2009
  17. thelawnet

    thelawnet Dormant account

    Occupation:
    programmer
    Location:
    UK
    The chance of being exposed is non-zero. If I suspected I was being cheated, I would gather the evidence to do so.

    Of course there is a chance that a casino could turn a 0.46% Jacks or Better game into 0.50% for example, and that would very hard to detect because nobody would suspect it and therefore nobody would test it.

    The problem with this is to do this properly you would have to be quite careful, it would involve careful adjustments to code so things weren't skewed. And a big casino software company is not run by one man in his office. Lots of people will work on that codebase. They have a great deal to lose by cheating - one disgruntled employee could blow their cover and the reputational damage would be huge. (Of course they could pull an English Harbour and refuse to provide any kind of public proof of their claims, but it's still not that easy to pull off.)

    Just as a cheating game in a b+M casino would have big implications, a cheatring game online would also - and in many ways it is easier to test online - if you want to record a million spins, you can.

    The poker cheating made sense because it was a backdoor for individuals to make great personal profit. If Microgaming take 1% from their slots payout, then a lot of casinos make a little bit of extra profit. The individuals involved would most likely not get anything. Not the same motivation. And besides, Microgaming COULD take 1% from their slots payout, just by revising paytables or pay reels. Nothing to stop them, they make no promises about their games.
     
    2 people like this.
  18. Sep 9, 2009
  19. JHV

    JHV <a href="http://www.casinomeister.com/meister_awar

    Occupation:
    Losing a Poker Bankroll on House Edge
    Location:
    Perennial Traveler
    "close to 0" I said.

    But in the specific instance I'm 99.9% sure I was cheated, it would be impossible to prove - ever. Unless someone involved blew the whistle.

    But in cases where collating statistical data can provide evidence that falls outside 'believable' ranges of likelihood - I think we both understand the concept and power of 'variance' enough to realise that, in some cases, it's close to impossible to prove.

    I have played in online poker games where people are cheating - how (in terms of specifics) I don't know. It would be impossible to prove. EVER. Unless someone involved blew the whistle and provided evidence. The nature of poker variance requires millions of hands to create acceptable confidence intervals. I have data from games which were legit where I ran $80,000 below all-in expectation over 130,000 hands. My friend, over a similar sample size, ran $60,000 above all-in expectation. Variance is insane.

    Let's use Jacks-or-Better as an example as we both play it. I'm one of those pathetic types that keep rough records of how many Royals I should have hit. On my play on Millionaire and their affiliated casinos, I haven't yet hit a Royal in a MASSIVE volume of play - by my records I should have hit 6 or so Royals based on "hole cards" (what's the term for the dealt hand on multiple line play - it's not Pat right? cause Pat would imply "standing Pat"...)

    Do I think Millionaire is cheating on Jacks-or-Better? Of course not, otherwise I wouldn't still be playing there.

    But, and it's been too long since I studied Statistics at uni for me to work out the maths, how much volume would be required to prove that a casino is rigging their Video Poker in terms of delivering on Royals? *Note: They could adjust the payouts for lower ranked hands to keep the payout ratio the same, being well-aware that players are more likely to cash out when they hit a Jackpot rather than keep spinning / flipping as they would if they just hit more 2 prs or w/e.

    It would have be literally tens of millions of deals, right?
     
    1 person likes this.
  20. Sep 9, 2009
  21. thelawnet

    thelawnet Dormant account

    Occupation:
    programmer
    Location:
    UK

    You're looking at 40,390 hands between royals on 9/6. So expectation would be 248 royals in 10 million deals. If you had fewer than about 175 royals, that would be proof of cheating.

    For a single royal I would want to see hundreds of thousands of hands without a royal....

    Personally I hadn't experienced many Royals, but I hit a $4000 Royal last night at Lucky Ace (Cassava), and have had a couple of bigger ones at Playtech recently, so you could say I'm happy with their fairness. Also I guess you can judge from all the progressives that get paid out at the major casinos - there's no shortage of winners.
     
    1 person likes this.
  22. Sep 9, 2009
  23. hippo925

    hippo925 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    medical field
    Location:
    so cal
    Darn you DiamondGeezer!!! :axeman:

    :D
     
    1 person likes this.
  24. Sep 9, 2009
  25. hippo925

    hippo925 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    medical field
    Location:
    so cal
    First, thanks a bunch guys for the responses. Always a great benefit when the people in the know weigh in. And it was just a coincidence and my horrible memory that thelawnet was the one chiefly responsible for the English Harbor thing!

    But that brings me to my point. Even when thelawnet tried to bring the video poker doubling issue to light, it too was first met with a lot of "sore loser" and "prove it or shut up" type responses.

    Now, seriously.... how many of us are as knowledgable and experienced as thelawnet, vinyl, or our other expert members? I would seriously say that it would be near impossible for most of us to prove anything because IF a casino or software were cheating, it would still be most likely done within an acceptable standard deviation so that nothing could ever be proved... kinda like what vinyl was saying.

    And the thelawnet, i understood a lot of what you were saying, but i respectfully have to disagree with the incentive thing. In my experience, you can never underestimate GREED.....sometimes, even "everything" is not enough for some people....

    There seems to be a serious lack of equilibrium when it comes to trust or fairness regarding online casinos. Instead of "we are honest, let us show you..." it's more like "we are honest, try to prove that we're not!"

    Could you imagine what it would be like without sites like this? And even so, we never really know if we are getting a truly fair shake.... We may get our cashouts, bonuses, good cs, etc... but are we getting a fair shake?

    ps... remember, this is all hypothetical....just interested in what everyone thinks.
     
    4 people like this.
  26. Sep 9, 2009
  27. JHV

    JHV <a href="http://www.casinomeister.com/meister_awar

    Occupation:
    Losing a Poker Bankroll on House Edge
    Location:
    Perennial Traveler
    Thanks. I was actually interested in that 40390 number, but too lazy to spend 20 sec googling it obv.

    But you're effectively agreeing with me, right? An online casino could rigg their Royal ratio and good luck collating the evidence required to create even 'suspicion', esp if they only did it at Max Coin or w/e.

    FWIW, I hit 5 (? - maybe 6) Royals on JoB at InterCasino in like 2 days I think - hella lot of 50 line play though. ALL DONE AT MAX COIN, YO - IF ANYONE IS LISTENING *chortle*

    So I think you can safely say the CryptoLogic RNG for JoB is safe in that regard.

    Not only do I not have 1c of the winnings from that money, I'm pretty sure I deposited a substantial amount more after trying to withdraw it, not being able to do so effectively, then tilted / annoyed at the long time it was taking them to "check my logs" (lol) before they could pay me the 25k they owed from the single spin at min - and lost a lot more before it clicked that I got owned pretty hard by InterCasino 'tricks' and my own retardation - and by my own bias in assuming a softly-spoken old lady would never be lying about Moneybookers complications. Dammit. Who ever suspects a little old lady? InterCasino are geniuses.
     
    1 person likes this.
  28. Sep 9, 2009
  29. hippo925

    hippo925 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    medical field
    Location:
    so cal
    sorry about what happened..... but i laughed out loud when i read that! Now we have to watch out for the little old ladies too? Are you kidding me? LOL :D
     
  30. Sep 9, 2009
  31. JHV

    JHV <a href="http://www.casinomeister.com/meister_awar

    Occupation:
    Losing a Poker Bankroll on House Edge
    Location:
    Perennial Traveler
    I got private emails from casino operators who are like "dude, no offence, but there was nothing 'genius' about how you got played - it's the oldest set of tricks in the book and InterCasino are the best at using them".

    But I like to keep referring to InterCasino as evil 'geniuses' because it feels dirty to get outplayed by 'old dumb tricks'.

    And I do think the "little old lady" touch was brilliant.

    Yes, you do have to watch out for little old ladies now! Sorry lol.... :p
     
    1 person likes this.
  32. Sep 9, 2009
  33. DaveG39

    DaveG39 Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    Disability
    Location:
    Glendale,CA,USA
    Thanks to this site You must register/login in order to see the link. that somebody posted in one of these cheating threads (I can't remember who, but ty * 10^6 :)) it would take at least 191,594 hands without a Royal for your results to be "statistically significant" ie 5% probability or less.

    Just for grins, if you were able to deal 10 million hands, 221 or less Royals would be the proof you needed. :)
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2009
  34. Sep 9, 2009
  35. TOC

    TOC Dormant account

    Occupation:
    x
    Location:
    Earth
    I'm going to respond simply this to the OP's question, "so how do you prove an online casino isn't fair'.
    * Handle the daily operations of the casino in question! The End...
     
  36. Sep 9, 2009
  37. big_mac

    big_mac Experienced Member

    Occupation:
    student
    Location:
    uk
    that wouldn't tell you if the software was fair!
     
  38. Sep 9, 2009
  39. thelawnet

    thelawnet Dormant account

    Occupation:
    programmer
    Location:
    UK
    5% is not statistically significant enough to prove cheating - one in 20 NORMAL results will be at that level.
     
    1 person likes this.

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