Simulations Experts I Need Your Advice Please

StaceyLee

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Jun 17, 2010
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Australia
Hi everyone, question for simulations experts.

Do simulations of 10,000+ spins on roulette, (which result in a profit), provide a reasonable amount of number crunching to engage a betting strategy, or is 100,000 more of a magic number?

I have 3 strategies that I have developed for myself over the last 9 months that have withstood my test of time, (103 have found their way into the bin). My strategies are applied a bit like running a business - some days nobody wants to buy shoes and other days everybody wants 'em! So of course there are some daily takings in the red and others in the black. I have worked my strategies to obviously provide greater returns than losses otherwise it wouldn't be worthwhile opening shop. But have I market surveyed enough to consider opening my business. My returns are as follows, (based on using a $10,000 bankroll; 2 strategies using $5 bets and 1 strategy using a $25 bet):

Strategy 1: Net Profit $3,749
Strategy 2: Net Profit $1,875
Strategy 3: Net Profit $8,450 (obviously my favourite)
Total Net Profit for 10,000+ spins, (but not more than 15,000 spins) is $14,074. This is one months play time for me.

Wizard of Odds simulation challenge was for ten million spins, but unfortunately I have to do my assessments by hand and if I waited for ten million spins I would be 129 years old. :( (I know I can run off thousands of numbers from the web, that's the easy part, its recording them on my chart and calculating the sequence, blah blah that is so painstaking.)

Your input would be appreciated re sims. Thanks.

P.S. I am not comfortable sharing the details of my betting strategies/sequences except that they are based on 111 spin theory, so please do not ask, (ask me in 5 years!!!). I am just interested in what the best "long term" simulation theories are.

Cheers
StaceyLee
 

Da_Gambla

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Well, you know already, it's a random game. Simulations are valid when you can plug in actual known variables or factors which change the game over time (like card counting). In this case, I'm not sure replacing variables with random numbers really yields anything useful, if you understand me? If that's all making sense, then I'm not really sure how much more useful 100k would be versus 10k. Maybe to satisfy yourself, you could do another 10k and compare it to the first to see if there was any apparent anomaly that begged for a 3rd 10k to smooth it out? By saying that, you're kind of drawing me into an agreement that the simulation would mean something, and you could expect that outcome when applied to a real game. I can't say that, because I know that any patterns that you find in a series of random numbers has that problematic tendency to start moving around on you. The patterns you rely upon today might shift tomorrow or next week, but they will. If your strategy does not rely on any patterns, then #1, a simulation wouldn't be needed, and #2, I'd like a PM to discuss it. I've played roulette for a long long time, and it's one of my favourite pastimes.

- Keith
 

StaceyLee

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Jun 17, 2010
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Australia
Hi Keith and thanks for your reply. Each set I play is based upon the 111 spin theory which I was fortunate to find here when "my hero legend" posted some time ago. I saw it's consistency and have worked tirelessly to develop my own betting strategy, for although I understand "the legends betting strategy" and have used it, I needed to develop my own - I now think this is actually what makes a person become an advantage player for they have put their strategies through the test of time, they are comfortable with them, they work for them and experience has allowed a player to be able to mould and carve out from what they personally identify after thousands of games.

The consistency of X amt of #'s hitting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6+ times in 111 spins is what I see as a "pattern", for never do all numbers hit exactly 3 times in 111 spins. The randomness is, of course, where in the 111 spins will they multiply.

Perfecting a strategy that gains more wins, or should I say profit than loss, is the greatest challenge - one I have, hopefully not in vain, been fanatical with for many months.

Strategies 1 and 2 I cannot confidently say do not rely upon randomness, for I actually play these using the results of the previous set and for the life of me I cannot explain it as all logic points to randomness - I have even gone so far as to investigate physics to try and explain why there is a good strike rate, (stay with me) - "like attracts like"; energy drawn to other energy; how the hell does a random number have energy; blah, blah, blah. So perhaps after a consistent 100,000+ spins the tables will turn on these 2 and "burnout" will set in.

My Strategy 3 relies upon selecting a single number that I choose after a certain amount of hits, relatively early within the 111 spin set, but only betting on it for 31 spins - this strategy has yielded the greatest profit, but losses along the way would not be for the fainthearted. Once again I cannot explain "why" but the re-occurence continually etched on my brain until I decided to try and work a betting strategy that could yield from it.

All strategies are actually very simple and easy to execute - the not easy part is the grind of recording on a specific chart, but this isn't so bad anymore because there are 3 strategies on the go to get a buzz from, or curse at the end of the day.

Anyway, if this reeks of patterns and randomness then I will eventually have to go back to the drawing board. But if there may be something in it then I am more than happy to discuss it with you further via PM.

I would love to be able to set up a computer simulation to run it through a few 100,000 spins, to get a peak into the future, but sadly I am not clever enough to do this and if someone was able to do it I would be cautious about how well I knew them, for if over time I was able to become an advantage player then I don't really think I would want the world to know - just a few family and friends in case they were up for the grind. Having said that it appears as a bit of a contradiction as I'm on a forum, but I wouldn't be where I am today if it wasn't for this forum which is why I continually seek advice as I evolve and/or until my bubble bursts.

Cheers
StaceyLee
 

petro

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A roulette simulator would be easy to make and very quick at simulating.
But I would be very surprised if any 'system' would show a positive gain after a large number of spins of the wheel.
 

Da_Gambla

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Stacey, I'll get back to you on your response later today...

A roulette simulator would be easy to make and very quick at simulating.
But I would be very surprised if any 'system' would show a positive gain after a large number of spins of the wheel.

I have designed such a simulator already, but it wasn't designed to be fed massive amounts of numbers. It was designed to be used side by side to a live game and have numbers entered one at a time as the game progresses. While I have thought ahead to being able to feed it a stream, I haven't made that a priority, and so it isn't there yet.

There are actually quite a few systems that can be effective long term. The problem is, these systems are extremely complicated and demand very intense wagering schemes. The failure point is where it becomes so much work, you might as well just go get a job. As you start making concessions that make your system simpler, you also open up more exposure to a possible disaster session.

In a live table setting, these complications cost you far too much time, since the spins come much too slowly. It isn't worth it to sit for 8 hours to see your system provide a few plays and very little profit. On the virtual front, you can of course bring the spins much faster, but if you are successfully using something, the casino will pick it up and likely close your account. There's really no viable way to make a living off of a virtual casino. They aren't going to send you several thousand dollars every couple of weeks without looking at what you're doing to win that. I mean, if someone is living in their folk's basement and is only responsible for their cigs and internet connection, well then sure, I guess they could 'make a living' (if that's even a living). Casinos are not here to pay you. If you are doing something that is showing consistent wins, they don't need to prove any type of fraud, they can just close your account. And they will. And they trade that information (a blacklist) amongst themselves.

- Keith
 

KasinoKing

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Hi everyone, question for simulations experts.
I'd rather have stimulations than simulations, :p but anyway...
Do you have & know how to use Microsoft Excel?
I have used it to prove many roulette systems do not work, maybe you'd like to try it for yours?

An Excel spread sheet is 65,536 rows deep, so it would be simple to run any system simulating that many spins every few seconds.
In column A, enter "=INT(RAND()*37)" at the top and just copy that same formula right down to the bottom of the sheet.
Then use the other columns with the "IF, THEN" function to look for and act on any betting patterns you like.
Just "SUM" the "Bet Amount" and "Return Amount" columns at the top or bottom of the sheet to show your profit or loss.
Then all you have to do if hit "F9" and it will produce a brand new set of random numbers & calculate your outcome.
Simples! ;)

KK
 

GrandMaster

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Try random.org for some quality random numbers.

You do not have permission to view link Log in or register now.
will get you 10000 numbers from 0 to 36 formatted into 10 columns. If you want them in 1 column or in a different number of columns, change col=10 to the number you want.
 

jstrike

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I'm sorry to say it, but if you run the simulation a billion times, no matter what your strategy is, if you see anything other than a 94.74% payback from American or a 97.29% payback from European, then what you're seeing is the failure of the random number generator for the simulator.

There's only one actually winning roulette strategy, and that's to take the deterministic view of the universe, that whatever subset of that billion you end up with over the course of your life, it's going to be the lucky set that defies the odds; whether that's because your power of positive thinking is strong enough to bend the universe around you like a Jedi, or if you happen to have sensed the right strategy to coincide with the nature of the changing universe at the moment (which is what the whole I Ching, book of changes is based on, actually...and might explain why Asian countries love to gamble so much).

Just remember, there's also karma. Every time you beat the odds, someone else goes on a losing streak; otherwise the casinos would be out of business.
 

StaceyLee

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Australia
Thanks Grandmaster I have actually looked at Random.org but its the manual assessment of 111 spins over the several thousand numbers that is the killer.

Thanks KK I will give excel a whirl :thumbsup:

Cheers
StaceyLee
 

GrandMaster

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Why are you doing it manually? If it is a genuine strategy, you should be able to code it in a little computer program and run it through millions of numbers.
 

StaceyLee

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Code and computer program is where the line stops for me I'm afraid - I'm just not computer literate enough to be able to do this. I had a look at excel and after 1 hour gave up trying to figure it out. :confused:

I have currently run off 60,000 # from random.org and although this equates to 51 sheets of paper that I have to wade through I have dumped 2 strategies and working on strategy 3 only. No 2 is crappy really, not even going to go further with this one, was more fun than anything and I think just a luck turn out in the first 10,000 spins. But strategy 3 has me by the throat and after my second 10,000 sims I have now tweaked it and running it (manually) through 60,000 spins to assess the outcome. I will catch my breath after this and maybe look at Strategy 2 although that's going to take at least 10 times more time to assess than Strategy 3.

Thanks for your input :notworthy and sorry I still in the dark ages when it comes to computers - I have enough nous to drive around the block, but give me a new city to drive in and I'm out of my depth. I learnt the basics over 25 years ago and have been out of the loop for more than 15 years. :oops:



Cheers
StaceyLee
 

Da_Gambla

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Ok, well my 'sim' is now capable of running on 'auto' mode and using the built-in Mersenne Twister RNG. From this point, all I need to do is create a 'plugin' system to plugin any system and it will do everything automatically. It still doesn't supply overall stats and it cannot be fed a list of numbers. It's auto, or manual input one at a time.

- Keith
 
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