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Runnin unlucky?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Kosop, Jun 14, 2006.

    Jun 14, 2006
  1. Kosop

    Kosop Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Field Tech
    Location:
    Des Moines
    Hiyas folks. Been reading the forums for a bit but this is my first post. Wanted to consolidate my questions for the knowledgeable =)

    I am typically a poker player. I understand the value of +EV and the long term results of such. But, the online casinos are really captivating. Something about just getting paid for pushing a button. Problem is, I have been running really bad. I can't win. Doesnt really matter what I play on which site, just cannot finish ahead.

    I generally play at the MG casinos. I like the software, love the games. However, I have noticed that it seems to be extremely streaky. If you are hitting, you are hitting on everything. If you are not hitting, even money games do not seem to be even money games any longer. Everyone goes through it I am sure. My question is:

    1. The payout odds at the casinos are posted. 97.4% and so forth. If the software is truly random, how can the payouts be consistant? Why does this concern me? Well, in order for a casino to maintain a percentage intake, it suggests that they must manipulate the software to some extent. I believe this impacts me in the streakiness. If the casino takes in X dollars/Hour, it must payout Y dollars/Hour. So, if one player is running well, and that player is wagering quite a bit, many players must now be running poorly to compensate. Considering I am a low roller, and I see folks betting what is basically my entire bankroll on a single hand of blackjack, and winning, then I assume that I must now lose to compensate.

    2. Is the payout determined by the game? I know slots are losers...basically everything is a loser long term, but slots seem to be the worst. But, when I am running poorly, as I am now, doesnt matter what game I play. I tend to jump between slots and blackjack. If I lose 10 bones on slots, I try to make it up on BJ. But that magic switch seems to be hit a lot, and it does not really matter. If I have 20, dealer will draw 7 cards to 21...over and over and over. Is this just all falling under the Y dollars/Hour and the games are just basically pictures masking the X/Hour and Y/Hour formula?


    Anyways, sorry about the bunched up paragraphs. Just sort of venting. I think I will probably just stick to poker as I do not believe that ANY casino software can be truly random. The money they win MUST come from somewhere and I believe it comes from the abundance of low rollers who just like to play 50 bucks now and again. I truly believe that the poker software used by most online poker rooms is truly random as it would not be in the best interest of the poker room to manipulate it in any way. The poker rooms always get paid via the rake so there is no reason to punish the players.
     
  2. Jun 14, 2006
  3. tennis_balls

    tennis_balls Dormant account

    Occupation:
    fish n chips promoter
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    the best casinos post these payout percentages by month. they are usually fairly consistent due to the volume of betting but they often vary by 1 or 2 %. with the exception of rogue software, it is all determined by random number generators and is not manipulated or rigged.

    a lot of gamblers (blackjack players in particular) complain about streakiness or consistent hits by the dealer. In my opinion, the added speed of using software rather than a dealer and real cards that need to be shuffled is what causes players to feel this way. more hands per hour is likely to lead to a quicker bust out. also, more hands per hour makes it more likely that you will have a hand or two when you double-down on 11 when dealer is showing a 6 and get spanked. it's human nature to remember these type of hands and fail to remember the other hands when the player got lucky.
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Jun 14, 2006
  5. pacers31

    pacers31 Banned Used - Repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Marketing Rep
    Location:
    Californication
    I'm in the same boat. Doesn't matter where I play or what software, I lose quickly. It has gotten to the point that I no longer care whether this form of "entertainment" exists or not. Just had another miserable time at MG, and the other day the RTG games sucked just as bad. I cannot for the life of me understand why the casinos haven't taken notice of all the complaints in this forum about the brutal losses here lately and maybe adjusted the payouts more favorably. I realize they want all they can get, but their greed will cost them alot of regular players like myself that will give up on online gambling or seriously curtail it. (instead of $100 deposits, I will start playing with $20 maybe, if I play at all) The U.S. congress will probably make this whole issue moot anyway in the near future. I am disgruntled!
     
    1 person likes this.
  6. Jun 15, 2006
  7. paul02085

    paul02085 Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Fishing :)
    Location:
    USA

    Each game is invented with a certain mathematical edge to the house some more than others. This means that over time with a lot of wagering(for example all you wagered in a month and all everyone else wagered in that month) those games will surely average giving the casino close to the edge
    they were invented to give (i.e.- blackjack <1%, slots>5%, VP<5%, etc).

    Therefore, the casino doesnt have to look at it from a standpoint of "well this guy who bet big won so lets fix it so this little guy loses to make up for it" because the built in mathematical edge will prevail over many wagers from all players.

    Hope that is understandable. Good luck! :)

    PS- Welcome to the posting world. A lurker no more!
     
  8. Jun 15, 2006
  9. arccos

    arccos Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT Developer
    Location:
    Best Not Said These Days

    Adjust it how? The games aren't rigged, except for some of the rouged casinos, and maybe a couple of ones floating under the radar. Outside of slots, the house edge can be found pretty easily for all major casino games. Once you have that data and the variance of the game, you can estimate how long it will be before you bust. You're saying you're depositing $100. What is your bet size? Do you ever double it (or more) to "get even?" Are you using deposit bonuses? What games are you playing? Are you using perfect strategy? There's only one casino I've ever felt dealt a bad game, and they don't exist anymore.

    I personally have been doing great lately. When I do bad, that's fine too, as long as I have fun. The games you get online are better deals than you can find in almost all casinos. No tips, bonuses, frequent player points, and generally better odds.

    If you're worried about the lawmakers outlawing online gambling, join the Electronic Freedom Foundation, the ACLU, the Poker Players Alliance, or any other lobbying group trying to stand up for your rights. Write (on paper) to your congress member. It's the only way we as players will be allowed to keep our rights.

    I'm not trying to beat down your opinions here, but it's just that the losers are the ones who come here to complain. The winners don't because they're still playing.

    -Arccos
     
  10. Jun 15, 2006
  11. Kosop

    Kosop Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Field Tech
    Location:
    Des Moines
    Never said they were rigged, altho they must have some variance built into them. They cannot be absolutely random, regardless of what the casino and software makers post. In order for a casino to maintain an edge, a take, it absolutely must have some control over its software.

    If a high roller comes into town and just smokes casino X, for say 50,000 in the span of a couple of hours, the casino must make up for that massive hit somewhere. Where would they do that? How could they possibly do it if the software is untouchable? I would be curious how many casinos have a losing month. If the software were random, they would have to wouldn't they?

    I wouldn't say I am a losing player, altho lately I am. Bout even probably over the long run. Going to stay even by opting out of this online casino thing probably =) Only fun or good luck I seem to get out of them is with the 300 percent sign up bonuses and such, and I have used em all up...lol. Deposited 50 dollars last night at The Gaming Club and played Good to Go. At 5 cents a spin, I ran through the whole wad, roughly 1600 spins with playback and never triggered a bonus game.
     
  12. Jun 15, 2006
  13. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    Kosop

    Forget about the idea that casinos need to adjust the software for individual players.

    All internet casinos have table limits. They also have software that gives them an edge on every single bet made. All they need to be safe and ensure a steady and reliable income is a big enough player base.

    With a small player base it is possible for a single player to severly damage or even bring down a casino. However, no casino in the Meisters recommended list would be remotely near that position.

    Mitch
     
  14. Jun 15, 2006
  15. vinylweatherman

    vinylweatherman You type well loads CAG MM

    Occupation:
    STILL At Leisure
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Adjustment

    Online, when casinos are being beaten they tend to make downward adjustments to their promotions. Usually this will affect the regular player events, as they believe these players can take more value from a promotion than the new ones. Another way is to run promotions only on games with a high house edge - this encourages play on these games, and provided the playthrough is enough, they actually make money by giving money away on the promotion.
    Some casinos will use a simplification to bump up the WR. Jackpot Factory, while suffering for it's incompetence, has introduced ClearBonus. This is far better, and VIP's only have to wager 15x on slots and 150x on VP. All well and good, but VIP's used to have to wager only 5x on slots and 5x on VP!!! - not exactly an "improvement". Many casinos of the mG brand are changing to EZBonus, and this allows them to dress up worse WR as an improvement. With this trickery, they don't need to cheat with the games and risk getting caught. MG are helping by releasing slots that are far harder to calculate a house edge for. We assume they are 95% or so, but figures are only given for all slots, not specific ones.
    When I have played at MG casinos, I often find that microwagering gives a better return on the stake than heavier wagering. I played Munchkins at around 0.72 per spin, yet had a few 100+ bonus rounds, yet when playing at 4.50 a spin I don't seem to get so many really good runs. There is no mathematical reason why this should be the case, and a lower bet size allows for a bigger sample, so this may be a factor.
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. Jun 15, 2006
  17. Kosop

    Kosop Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Field Tech
    Location:
    Des Moines
    Well, I cannot tell you at all how they play for me at higher wagering...biggest I make is .60 on Avalon. I am a microwagerer at heart I guess. Funny, I play 30/60 holdem and have no problem buying in for $6,000...but I can't seem to make myself play more than .50 on slots. If I could make a guess, it would be my last run of 1600 spins I mentioned earlier with no bonus trigger. Just seems a bit excessive to me. I like to play em, but I expect a bit of entertainment. 1600 with no bonus is not entertainment.

    What goes through my mind at that time? 'Some punk just hit a lucky run of BJ and I have to cover his wins!' True? Probably not. Does it feel true? It certainly does =)
     
    2 people like this.
  18. Jun 15, 2006
  19. pacers31

    pacers31 Banned Used - Repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Marketing Rep
    Location:
    Californication
    Arccos, they can change the payout percentages, and do. That is why casino X has a 94% payout and casino Y may have a 96% payout for example. If they were truly random, all casinos running MG would have the same percentage, all RTGs the same, etc. Your blanket statement that they are not rigged is pure speculation on your part. How do you know if they are or not?? As far as the legislation currently pending, the casinos are cutting their own throats right now by "tightening up" the games at a time when customer perception is very important (or should be) to them. They have soured me on an activity that I used to enjoy. Now, I really don't care if it is outlawed as I feel that I cannot win anyway. I'm happy to hear that you are doing so well, but lately you are the very small minority of us out here.
     
  20. Jun 15, 2006
  21. mitch

    mitch Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Secret
    Location:
    UK
    pacer

    Of course he is in the minority. Otherwise casinos would not be in business.

    The only way to win (statistically) regularly is to play with bonuses.

    Other than that you need to be very lucky to win on anything like a regular basis.

    If you are not lucky the expectation is that you will lose. Do not accuse casinos of cheating because they are taking your money that is the norm.

    If you are not happy. :-

    1. Play excusively with bonuses.

    2. Do not play at all.

    3. Open your own casino.

    Only those 3 things will guarantee your happiness.

    Mitch
     
  22. Jun 15, 2006
  23. paul02085

    paul02085 Senior Member

    Occupation:
    Fishing :)
    Location:
    USA

    :lolup: #3 so true.
     
  24. Jun 15, 2006
  25. arccos

    arccos Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT Developer
    Location:
    Best Not Said These Days
    Actually, for legitimate licensed software, they cannot change payout percentages on any of the fair deal games, I.E. cards, dice, etc. That simply is not an option in the configuration of the software. Most of the larger software networks evaluate their games with accounting firms to make sure the payout percentages are correct, and many release their results to the public. In addition, the software makers would not risk the reputation of their dozens of licenses by allowing a single casino using their software to play with the odds. No speculation, it's a matter of logic and public record.

    I know the casinos I play on have not done anything to me because of the stats I keep. In fact, if you have kept records, and found a casino you lost at in which you would be at or above the 95% probability, post it here and we can try to duplicate the results. I'm quite good with statistics, and would notice over a large number of bets (and the stats I keep) if I'm being "skimmed" on the games I play.

    "Casino X has a 94% payout and casino Y may have a 96% payout for example." That means that X has more people playing low returns games (slots, for example), their non fair-deal games (slots) have a lower payout percentage, or the skilled games (BJ, Pontoon) are being played incorrectly by their players. A casino wants 100% of their players either on slots or playing skilled games incorrectly. That gets them the money that much quicker.

    The legislation pending in the US is succeeding because the US is not getting taxes on out-of-county casinos, and the absurd argument of "protecting our citizens from themselves." The casinos themselves have nothing to do with it. I haven't heard any argument from legislators that the casinos are corrupt. In fact, if they do, they could have a slander allegation on their heads, since many European B&M casinos and even a couple US groups have Internet casinos. Whether they pay 99.99% or 20%, the legislation is going to succeed or fail based on who's voice is loudest, like always.

    "I'm happy to hear that you are doing so well, but lately you are the very small minority of us out here." The winners are not vocal, the losers are. That's because the human mind is risk averse. And there are more losers. I don't report when I'm losing because I expect to. So you won't hear from the winners, especially on a watchdog forum.

    The reason I'm so passionate about this is that it comes up on every single gambling forum I've ever been on. Whether it's casinos, poker rooms, or bingo, some people always think their being screwed. You aren't... you're just losing like everyone inevitably does.
     
    1 person likes this.
  26. Jun 15, 2006
  27. pacers31

    pacers31 Banned Used - Repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Marketing Rep
    Location:
    Californication
    mitch, forget winning on a regular basis, I'm talking maybe once a year will I have any kind of meaningful win. I play regularly, meaning several times a week. The law of averages would seem to allow that I would have a better experience from time to time. Your second suggestion is the one I am probably going to pursue. I still want to know how all the casino apologists out there can prove their theory that the games are indeed not rigged or altered in any way. The simple, and apparently uncomfortable truth for some of you is that you really don't know whether they are or not. Some folks just want to believe. I'm not saying they are rigged, but please, don't pretend to know something that for the average player is unknowable. My point about not caring whether online gaming is banned or not is that when the customer always feels short changed they tend to go away anyway.

    One more thing, can you or anyone out there explain why there are varying payout percentages for the same games software at different sites? Shouldn't it be uniform if indeed the software isn't being manipulated?? Why 95% at one MG for instance and 98% at another???? If the software is so pure, there should be no variance.

    Maybe if I ever hit it big somewhere LOL!! I will open my own site! That appears to be the only way to win anyway.
     
    1 person likes this.
  28. Jun 15, 2006
  29. pacers31

    pacers31 Banned Used - Repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Marketing Rep
    Location:
    Californication
    arccos, are you affiliated with any casino sites??
     
  30. Jun 15, 2006
  31. arccos

    arccos Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT Developer
    Location:
    Best Not Said These Days
    Am I shill? :) Not at all. I just play it all... Poker, BJ, Bingo, anything with a deal I like. I noticed you still haven't mentioned a single casino you feel is unfair. Why is that?
     
  32. Jun 15, 2006
  33. Kosop

    Kosop Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Field Tech
    Location:
    Des Moines
    Ok, I am not understanding this I guess. What most seem to be saying, and correct me if I am wrong, is that you are going to lose. You do not have any chance whatsoever of winning. If you keep playing, regardless of luck, angels on your shoulders, whatever, that the software, by design, will not allow you to win. Am I reading that correctly?

    The software, whichever kind, has a built in mechanism that will not allow it to payout more than it takes in. So, at what point does the software itself determine what is coming in versus what must go out? If it uses this type of logic, which seems to be suggested, then if one player is winning, another must be losing. If one player making very large wagers is winning, than many players making smaller wagers must inevitably lose.

    I am not pointing my finger at the online casinos, well, not completely. I go to Vegas every year and lose every year. I go there with the expecatation of losing but having a good time while doing it ( free drinks go a long way baby! ). In my opinion, completely uninformed, there should really be two pools of players. Thems that wager over a certain amount per play, and thems that wager under a certain amount. It would give us low rollers a chance to play for a bit on our meager bankrolls without having to cover the winnings of the jackpot hitters.

    Again, I am sure I am misunderstanding everything posted here anyway. If we are all guaranteed to lose, why would we ever play anyway?
     
  34. Jun 15, 2006
  35. pacers31

    pacers31 Banned Used - Repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Marketing Rep
    Location:
    Californication
    Because they are on the accredited list, and I don't want to get kicked off the site as I do find it interesting. You must be one of the lucky winners then. Wait until you are in my shoes and can't win ever. We'll see how "fair" you think these places are then. I really believe that it is the software that is suspect. I think that maybe the casino entities are real nervous about the potential US ban and are sucking up as much revenue as they can before the well runs dry. Just my opinion, but it is as good as any other. i.e; "the games aren't rigged". I have sought out Bryans comment on the state of the gaming universe with all the turmoil these days, but so far haven't seen any such postings. I wasn't accusing you of being a shill, you just speak like one. That or someone who just won a jackpot and has a warm feeling for the games because of it. Either way, no hard feelings, just commenting.
     
  36. Jun 15, 2006
  37. arccos

    arccos Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT Developer
    Location:
    Best Not Said These Days
    Not quite. The GAMES, by design, will not allow you to win long term. For each hand of blackjack you play at the casino's rules, you will lose .25%-1% on average. If you win 100 hands in a row, keep playing, and if you play long enough, you will give it back. Whether its on a computer or with a deck of cards, you will lose long term.

    An individual can win and cashout. I do regularly. So do other players. The Wizard of Odds has more details on casinos and how they make money if you want to know. The casinos doesn't care if you win or lose, because in agregate, they will make money. The game has a house edge. They don't need to adjust the odds on a player or group of players because they are already in their favor.

    Think of it this way. If we played a dice game where I give you one coin for each 1 or 2, and you give me one coin for any 3, 4, 5, or 6, I wouldn't need "fixed" dice to win long term. That's what the game is at the casino. It's not fixed dice, it's the rules of the game.

    They don't adjust the odds to balance the books.

    You said it exactly: "...But having a good time doing it." Vegas or online, it's the same game. It's entertainment. If you assume you're going to lose, you can have a good time doing it. Then if you walk away break even or up, even better!
     
  38. Jun 15, 2006
  39. arccos

    arccos Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT Developer
    Location:
    Best Not Said These Days
    If there's one thing I've seen about Bryan, it's that he seems to be fair. If you have a question about one of his accredited casinos, he won't have a issue with you posting a possible problem with it. Accredited doesn't mean untouchable. :)

    Besides, most of his accredited are ones I haven't played on yet, so I can test your ideas.

    Edit: Although, it probably won't make you feel any better if I say I get better results. But if I find the same as you, it could be something. Also post the game... mine is almost always BJ, but I'll play the video poker if the odds are ok. Any game you list I'll at least be able to give you the house edge for. :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2006

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