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RTP dilemma

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by rogertb, Apr 16, 2014.

    Apr 16, 2014
  1. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    Sorry if this appears twice, I was convinced I posted it correctly earlier .... anyway here it is again:

    Hi chaps, I've been playing an online game for a few months (Rainbow Riches) ... it's been fun, sort of, I'd played, up to the end of March 31,000 GBP getting back 30,000 ie a loss of about 1,000 GBP which I kind of felt acceptable given the game has a 97.8% RTP and to be honest I was 'up' on a couple of occasions and only the greed thing made me continue ... so "fair" I'd say.

    However since the beginning of this month I've hit a real bad patch ... I've played 8,500 GBP with only 1,300 GBP return an RTP of 15%, madness !

    I've had to stop now as a 7K loss has seriously hit me. I was guilty of chasing but in my previous experience whenever I got more than 1,000 or so behind I'd get a little encouraging win which kept me going but suddenly it was as though the RTP switch was turned off !

    It seems to me that RTP % is therefore worthless as a guide if the casino can point out that it is based on "many thousands of plays" ... in money terms what is "many thousands".

    Forgive this 'rant' but I'm really feeling stupid and sorry for myself, I hope that my post is in the 'spirit' of the site.

    Many thanks to those taking the time to read it.
     
  2. Apr 16, 2014
  3. paul7388

    paul7388 Meister Member MM

    Occupation:
    not a lot
    Location:
    glasgow scotland
    the rtp is simply what the slot pays out in total. You could lose thousands on that slot and it will still be paying out its rtp as other people will be winning . Any slots the same, i could regularly play immortal romance and never win but other people will get big wild desire wins so slot is paying out the rtp just not to me. Remember for every player that wins big many others have to lose.
     
  4. Apr 16, 2014
  5. rockycatt

    rockycatt meistercatt CAG MM

    Occupation:
    carpenter
    Location:
    Boston
    I hope you can afford this loss as recreation
     
  6. Apr 16, 2014
  7. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    Thanks for the response Paul ... so the RTP is totally meaningless ?
     
  8. Apr 16, 2014
  9. K2C

    K2C Experienced Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Data analyst
    Location:
    USA
    May I ask where you got the 97.8% number? I am showing 95% for Rainbow Riches by Barcrest. Far from 15%, but still.
    In any case, the answers to your questions are:

    1) No, RTP is not useless, unless it is incorrectly specified of course
    2) 8500 GBP is way too small a wager for the actual return to average out to the stated RTP. Depending on the specific slot's variance it may take hundreds of thousands or millions of spins to reach the nominal RTP within say, 1 percentage point.
     
  10. Apr 16, 2014
  11. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    The 97.8% was quoted in an email to me in response to my email to Coral asking for clarification .... and sorry but $14,000 seems like a pretty big investment, I would not expect to play $500,000 or more to get to the RTP point ... am I being totaly naive ?
     
  12. Apr 16, 2014
  13. refre

    refre Senior lurker PABnonaccred PABnoaccred

    Occupation:
    Professional slot player
    Location:
    .
    Hi there, sorry for your bad run.
    I do think 95% is the correct figure for RTP.
    I just checked the paytable at several casinos.

    While checking I noticed this slot has min/max bet of £0.20/£400.

    Wagering £8,500 at min bet I would certainly expect your return to be much closer to RTP.
    Based on your low return though, I'm thinking you may have done bigger bets.

    What counts is the number of spins rather than the total amount.

    Freddy
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. Apr 16, 2014
  15. K2C

    K2C Experienced Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Data analyst
    Location:
    USA
    Here is my source www. meccabingo.com/games/game/rainbow-riches

    under the Game Rules tab it says "The theoretical average return to player (RTP) is 95.00% "
    Casinos sometimes provide incorrect RTP figures, and I must say, some do it by honest mistake (I've seen instances of lower than actual quoted RTP)
    But the number on a web site is definitely more credible then the number in the email.

    It does not answer your 15% question though. I'll try to address in my next post.
     
  16. Apr 16, 2014
  17. K2C

    K2C Experienced Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Data analyst
    Location:
    USA
    Here are some illustrations to help your understanding of how RTP works. I will compare two Playtech slots: Golden Games and Skazka. I will bet 4 cents per line on the former and 5 cents per line on the latter, so the total bet is $1.00 in both instances. In my explanation I will operate in terms of House Advantage (HA), which is easier for me. HA = 100-RTP, so if RTP = 95% then HA = 5%. I will also use the slots' standard deviations (SD) which is a measure of variability (the "give or take number"). For the two slots in question the numbers are

    Golden Games: HA= 4%, SD = 342%.
    Skazka: HA = 3%, SD = 359%

    In plain English it means that when making a $1.00 bet on Golden Games you are expected to loose $0.04 plus or minus $3.42 on most spins. Similarly, for Skazka. It may be a little hard to wrap your head around it; after all, how you can lose $3.00 on a spin when you only bet $1.00? But here is a better illustration. The below graph shows average return on these two slots for 1,000,000 simulated spins.

    [​IMG]

    It can be seen from the graph that average return is very unstable in the beginning, Golden Games even demonstrated a positive return during the first 1000 of spins, the graphs are bumpy, they meet one another and even cross. However, as the number of spins increases, the graphs level out and Skazka return appears to stay above that of Golden Games. Also both returns get very close to their respective theoretical HA.

    The next graph illustrates the following experiment. I play Golden Games and you play Skazka. If we make just a few spins, the results of course are unpredictable. I may lose it all and you may hit some big wins or vice versa. But what is your chance of beating me in the long run? Here comes:

    [​IMG]

    You can see that when spin count is in tens of thousands, you have an approximately 60%-70% chance of beating me i.e. 2:1 odds against me. So I still have a decent chance of being ahead of you. But as we approach 1000000 spins, the graph gets closer to the 100% line, meaning you will beat me almost surely.

    Conclusions:

    1) Slot RTP is indeed important
    2) The more you play the more it matters
    3) Make sure you have obtained the RTP from a credible source.
     
    5 people like this.
  18. Apr 16, 2014
  19. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    Just to make sure we are all singing from the same hymn sheet here; Are you saying you you played £8,500 in WAGERS and only got £1,300 back?
    Or are you saying you deposited a total of £8,500 and only cashed-out £1,300?
    There is an enormous difference between these two scenarios.

    If it was WAGERS - how did you count it to make sure it was accurate?

    KK
     
    4 people like this.
  20. Apr 16, 2014
  21. dunover

    dunover Unofficial T&C's Editor Staff Member CAG PABnononaccred PABnonaccred PABinit mm3 webmeister

    Occupation:
    International Money Launderer
    Location:
    the bus shelter, opposite GCHQ Benhall
    Not madness - we need some context here.
    If you deposited 8500, had say 8500 spins at 1 unit and only received 1500 in winnings, then that is shocking, and frankly extremely unlikely unless you were playing a slot with a variance of such extremity it would make DoA and BDBA seem like St*rb*rst......

    I reckon you are overlaying deposits and withdrawals, which is a different matter. You could have had 100,000 spins with your 8500 in deposits, thus making your 1500 eventual cash-out a RTP of 98.5%, which is in fact above expectation for a 95% TRTP game.

    We can only add constructive comment to your beef here if you supply us with game logs from the period when you deposited the 8500 and withdrew the 1500. I can guarantee you that you had more than 8500 unit/spins and a RTP of >15%....:)

    P.S. Remember the longer you play and the bigger the amount you turn over, the greater the likelihood of having a very respectable RTP and to also lose a substantial amount.....

    P.P.S. K2
    Your graph demonstrates my logic when opening a casino account, because the deviation is nearly always more pronounced at the beginning. I have had substantial gains too at the beginning, and have always cashed out and closed the accounts shortly afterwards because the odds then favour an RTP 'clawback' in the casino's favour. Similarly when I have a beating I usually find a period of recovery afterwards which may or may not put me at above the TRTP line - if it does go over I cash and run (i.e. escape with a slight overall profit) or if I just about scrape it I cash out and make most but not all my deposits back. You'd be surprised how quickly you can pass these deviations on new accounts.
     
  22. Apr 17, 2014
  23. K2C

    K2C Experienced Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Data analyst
    Location:
    USA
    It now appears to me the OP has actually deposited 8500 rather then wagered 8500. There are two very popular misconceptions about RTP

    1) Confusing it with the withdrawals to deposits ratio
    2) Making a conclusion based on a small amount of play

    OP has probably fall a victim of the first one, while all my explanations are related to the second one. Hope it still helped.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2014
    1 person likes this.
  24. Apr 17, 2014
  25. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    Yes I deposited £8,500 and withdrew £1,300, this was in April, in Jan/Feb/mar I deposited approx £31,000 and withdrew £30,000 ... hence my dilemma, a small (ish) loss over a 3 month period and a sudden decline over a couple of days really) - as I said 'chasing' - very stupid but based on past results I had high hopes.

    Here's a link to a spread sheet supplied by Coral:

    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    Thanks so much for all the help I'm getting here.
     
  26. Apr 17, 2014
  27. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    Sorry - I thought I'd get hold of my 'plays' record (number of spins) but my account has been suspended since I wrote to the boss of Coral and asked for an explanation. Though I mainly played £2.00 per spin with the occasional £4.00 per spin session when I was feeling rich. Plus all small gains were played unless I had a reasonable win (circa £1,000) when I would cash-in thinking that maybe I'd stop playing but, as ever, I'd weaken and try and win some more so 'spin numbers' must be pretty high on a £37,500 turnover/deposit !
     
  28. Apr 17, 2014
  29. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    May I just add a big thank you to all contributors, so good of you. I know this money is well gone and I now have to try and put it behind me, needless to say I will NOT be playing any more ... a harsh lesson learnt but your comments have helped me put it into perspective and 'eased' the pain, I really wish I'd found this helpful site before I started playing, there's such a wealth of good advice here.
     
    1 person likes this.
  30. Apr 17, 2014
  31. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    That is what I suspected. This means YOUR return was 15%, not that the RTP of the game(s) you played was 15%.

    The RTP of a game is: (Amount Lost or Won) ÷ (Amount Wagered) x100.

    So for example, if you played £100 worth of spins on a game and won a total of £95, the RTP was 95%.
    If you keep on recycling that money through the machine, you will eventually end up on £0 - but the machine is still paying out 95% RTP.

    Either way, a break is definitely what you need. Gambling addictions can be very destructive. Come back when you KNOW (not think) you can control your actions. I'm not preaching either - been there, got the T-Shirt with my fruity addiction 30-odd years ago.

    KK
     
    3 people like this.
  32. Apr 17, 2014
  33. rogertb

    rogertb Full Member PABnononaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    UK
    Sound advice KasinoKing ... I won't be returning any time though, just too risky ...
     
    1 person likes this.

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