RTG - RTP Trial run for interested forum members

binshakindown

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CO
I like to play RTG and enjoy the free tourney's. I have had this idea for quite sometime, but thought it useful to share.

I have seen many threads regarding the RTP of the RTG. It is difficult to prove one way or the other and that is okay as well.

I only play at the accredited RTG and try to always play the freeroll tourneys when they occur. The cool thing about the tourneys is that you have a starting balance say, $2,000 and you have five minutes to play. As wins occur, they are added to a separate accruing balance and not your starting balance.

When your starting balance is zero or you run out of time, the tourney is over. So take your accrued balance and your starting balance and figure out your RTP (unless that's not how it's done). Granted this is only a snap shot, but hey it is better than nothing.

So if one kept track of all tourney's, then possibly RTP could be at least estimated?????

My last couple tourneys I played were (well the ones I wrote down anyway):
Start balance Accrued balance
$5000 $1915
$2000 $1135

So what is that 38.3% and 56.8%? I have done much better in the past, but didn't write them down. I thought I would keep track from here on out.

BTW, there may be some flaws in my thinking, but what else is there, except for logging each and every bet when playing real.
 

bpb

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You would have to play a HUGE amount to get any kind of statistically meaningful results. Slots are ridiculously high variance. So you're going to need at least 100,000 spins to get anywhere close to interesting results. Probably into the millions before you'd have any data that would be "actionable".
 

binshakindown

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True,

but millions of spins can be attained when you have forum members who might be interested in contributing. I know it's not real RTP, but what else is there?

Also, if it is not an accurate representation, wouldn't it be in the best interest of an RTG operator to share that info?

Not trying to stir up anything, just thinking!
 

LaHutti

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....and if you try to do anything that would be remotely useful, you'll see "Shut down by administrator", and that'll be the end of THAT session...wonder why.... lol
 

Simmo!

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but millions of spins can be attained when you have forum members who might be interested in contributing.

Nice idea going the tourney route but I can see two problems here:

Firstly, it assumes the tourney RTP is the same as Real Play RTP on each game. Secondly, you rely on each contributor posting all their session data. If one or more contributors wants to try and make the RTP look higher or as is more likely, lower, than it really is then they can skew the results by being selective about which sessions they contribute to the project.

Whether they do or not, that uncertainty means that the results cannot be deemed reliable because they can't be guaranteed truly representative unfortunately.
 

chayton

aka LooHoo
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I've been sort of doing the same thing on the Rushmore tourneys - not really keeping track, just sort of noticing. Starting with a balance of 15K, most times I end up with appx the same amount, averaging between 13-17K, but there are the odd times where I end up with only 6K (those days are the ones I'm glad I'm not playing for real!) and other days I end up with double my starting balance and very occasionally a bit higher.

So I can tell (sort of) what my personal RTP for that particular 15 minutes is, but I agree with the others who said it's not long enough to really get a good idea of the actual RTP.

What about if you went through a tourney and added up the opening balance and the scores of ALL the players? Doesn't RTP mean 'return to (all) players'?
 

KasinoKing

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My last couple tourneys I played were (well the ones I wrote down anyway):
Start balance Accrued balance
$5000 $1915
$2000 $1135

So what is that 38.3% and 56.8%? I have done much better in the past, but didn't write them down. I thought I would keep track from here on out.
You can't calculate the RTP with those 2 figures alone!
You need to know how much you wagered.

RTP = ((Amount Wagered) + Amount of gain or - Amount of loss)) / (Amount wagered) x 100

e.g. If you started with $100, played 500 spins @ $1 each and ended up with $75 (i.e. a $25 loss):
RTP = (500-25)/500 = 0.95 x 100 = 95%

In other words: You bet $500 and won back $475 = 95% RTP.

And like others have already said, to get any sort of accurate figure you do need to do 1,000s of spins.

KK
 

Pocketdiggers77

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May 9, 2006
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On Top of Old Smokey
I think with some tweaking it is an excellent idea and I would be more than happy to conrtibute anything I can. I have some real benders on two RTG slots. Medal Tally and the Happiness Golden Ox one. I usually dont keep track of my spins because RTG does everything to prevent it but I have a method that I can try. I will be glad to post results as I am going to play these slots until they are won or I lose my balance. I had a 5000 spins session on Medal Tally last night and a 3000 spin session on Golden Ox. Let me know and I will post results but I am only starting this today. Also since there is only one bet size for both of these games ($1) this will make it less confusing.
 

Nifty29

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Turn right, then right. then right again
As long as you treat it as a bit of fun, I don't see any harm in it.

Simmo! has an excellent point about the RTP being possibly different in tourney mode.

I would also bet my last dollar that some will deliberately lower their results, or even invent them without even playing....its the nature of the beast.

The results will be pretty much meaningless, but hey its free right?
 

chayton

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The one helpful thing about doing this in tourney mode is that your winnings go into a different 'pocket' than your playing money. So you don't really have to keep track of what you won or lost on every spin, right?

I was just thinking about what I said earlier about using the scores of everyone playing in the tourney but that wouldn't be a fair representation unless you also had access to the # of credits they had left in their play balance when the tourney ended. Some people might have gotten disconnected or decided they weren't going to win and quit early, and others maybe got the feature and several retriggers on their first spin (which happened to me once at an Avalon tourney! Oh glory days...) so the latter case those people would only be out of pocket for their first spin and their RTP would be huge, but you wouldn't be able to figure it out unless you knew what they had left in their balance.
 

binshakindown

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CO
Appreciate the good feedback on the idea.

So with calculating RTP does it matter how many spins you actually do, even when the total amount won goes into your accrued balance and not back into your bank roll?

I do see the point about it not being an accurate representation of RTP, because of the possibility of a different server for real verses tourney modes, and the possible downplaying of actual ending accrued balances, among a few other things:D.
 

Jasminebed

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Ontario
I thought along the same lines as Chayton, but I forgot about remaining balances. Or rounds ending during free spins.

It may be true that tourney mode is not the same as real mode. Since RTG operators can change game payouts, it might be that all tourneys are at a set percentage for all operators, but individual casinos might have different RTPs on the game in real mode.

I think the Randoms somehow end up skewed on these too, compared with real play. I'm not just sure how, but I don't think most players make $100 spins as a matter of course. I've played late in games where randoms for games that usually go before 10K are over 40, or come in just after someone hit it and it's just barely over 1K.

I think it's more an exercise in futility than gathering any real data.

But if you decide to go for it, I'll certainly be interested in reading your results.

I do think that when you look at return versus start balance like tourney play, it does give an accurate picture of RTP, regardless of bet size. But any remaining balance in the start balance needs to be considered too.
 

Simmo!

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Since RTG operators can change game payouts....

Just for clarification and historical accuracy on the above statement: the unofficial "official" line (!) is that a request needs to be put in by an operator to RTG with a justification to change to one of the 3 set percentage options offered within the software (91.5%, 95% or 97.5%) and it affects all Slot Games only.

I'm not sure how Tournament Mode is controlled, whether it ties in with "Real Play" or whether it has it's own settings.

binshakindown said:
So with calculating RTP does it matter how many spins you actually do, even when the total amount won goes into your accrued balance and not back into your bank roll?

I think - personally - to get anything like a true representation you would probably need 5 - 10 million spins.
 

4 of a kind

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The only true way to figure RTP settings is to know the total exact amount the machine took in and returned. Plus most machines take varying denominations and RTP's could be different for each denomination. No one knows for sure how any of this actually works online.

With regulated land based casinos you could follow the RTP's by checking their monthly reports recorded by their gaming commissions like I posted here: https://www.casinomeister.com/forums/threads/online-rtp-settings.45680/
 

quber

Senior Member
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Feb 25, 2004
Location
Europe
You can't calculate the RTP with those 2 figures alone!
You need to know how much you wagered.

RTP = ((Amount Wagered) + Amount of gain or - Amount of loss)) / (Amount wagered) x 100

e.g. If you started with $100, played 500 spins @ $1 each and ended up with $75 (i.e. a $25 loss):
RTP = (500-25)/500 = 0.95 x 100 = 95%

In other words: You bet $500 and won back $475 = 95% RTP.

And like others have already said, to get any sort of accurate figure you do need to do 1,000s of spins.

KK

It can be done with those figures alone as all winnings go to a seperate pot and are not added to the balance. If you start with 5k and end up with zero then the total wager is 5k as none of the money from winnings is being wagered.
 

KasinoKing

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It can be done with those figures alone as all winnings go to a seperate pot and are not added to the balance. If you start with 5k and end up with zero then the total wager is 5k as none of the money from winnings is being wagered.
Yes, that's true - if you lose (use) the entire starting balance in that way then that is the "amount wagered" in my calculation.
I didn't realise that's how those tourneys work! :oops:

KK
 

pmutts

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I wish I could get into tournaments.

Thing is, I have always wanted to beat the HOUSE. Blackjack is my game of passion (and hate). I have tried BJ tourney's and I just hate the whole concept. It's just not my thing. Now Slot Tournaments or VP tourneys I believe I could find enjoyable to an extent.

Fun yes, but I'm from the mindset that if you get a Royal Flush in a touney, it is a waste if all you are going to win is a couple of hundred bucks--max. Jasminebed got me into the Screenshot tournament last Saturday for Halloween at 3Dice. It was a blast. Plus, it kept me diverted at the Rangers blew their second shot at the series. Third times a charm--right? GO SAINTS! My heart is with the Saints, not the Cowboys. I grew up in Louisiana.
 

dubleup

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Why not use statistics method to remove some inaccuracy from the "binshaken" dataset?

So I remember learning a method in statistics which served to filter junk data from the data set in question. We started with typical distributions of data. Here, the data values will generally follow a bell curve pattern, whereby a majority of the data points are somewhat clumped together and within so many standard deviations of the average value. Data that falls outside a calculated number of standard deviations from the mean in either direction are called 'outliers' I believe. These are discarded to make the dataset more useful based on this particular method from statistics class.

So, you can find the mean value of all the tourney results, calculate the associated standard deviation, then apply the formula to calculate the greatest number of standard deviations from the mean for which a data point is still considered 'valid'. Continuing with this method (I wish I could remember the name)you would throw out those values that fall outside the calculated distance from the mean, and in either direction. The values that remain are your 'filtered' dataset... Phew!

For example, lets say average winnings is 1000 with standard deviation of 200; and you put these numbers into the formula and calculate the cutoff for valid data to be 1.5 standard deviatioins... In this case, all winnings data less than 1000-(200*1.5) = 700 would be thrown out, and all datapoints having winnings above 1300 would be thrown out.

Anyway, if you think about it, the values that get eliminated are either very high, which increases the likelihood that the players in this category were left with money in their remaining balance at tourneys end; or the score is so pitifully low that it is only right to throw it and that poor player with his few remaining scraps of dignity completely out of the calculations so that he may wallow in his self-pity in peace..LOL... just kiddin. To avoid skewing the data, the accepted formula (I think developed by Chebychev? or Poisson? ) should be used to ensure the most useful of data. This would require throwing out both high and low values that lie outside the calculated distance from the mean.

For all who are stressing accuracy accuracy accuracy.... welcome to the world of probability! He he... sure sounds funny when its put that way doesn't it? Often, the best we as humans can do for real-world data collection such as that proposed by binshaken; consists of employing methods to ensure we have REASONABLY accurate data, then make prudent determinations based upon that data. I can gaurantee there is no gaurantee of accuracy when it comes to data collection such as that proposed... it doesn't exist. The only way possible is to get the data from the one pulling the strings, and that apparently is not an option here. Solutions, we need solutions!
 

binshakindown

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CO
For the little it's worth:

It's been awhile (since early Nov) but here are my results of the last 3 tourneys since then:
3512/5000=70.2%
877/2000= 43.8%
533/2000= 26.7%

What I get out of this is my RTP is looking sad. It also tells me to stick with the free tourney's for a bit.:thumbsup:
 

Nifty29

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Turn right, then right. then right again
It's been awhile (since early Nov) but here are my results of the last 3 tourneys since then:
3512/5000=70.2%
877/2000= 43.8%
533/2000= 26.7%

What I get out of this is my RTP is looking sad. It also tells me to stick with the free tourney's for a bit.:thumbsup:

The problem with this data is that it doesn't provide the number of spins, and this is very important.

If you started with 5000 coins and were betting 100 a spin, that is only 50 spins which is waaaay to small to even begin to calculate the true RTP of the games concerned.

For instance, if you were in fact betting 100 per spin, a win of only 15xbet would have propelled you into the 100%+ RTP category which would shed a completely different...and equally flawed....light on the subject.
 

binshakindown

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CO
However, my RTP is only related to what I experiene.

I meant to spell "experience." Since all of my winnings go into one pot and my wager money is in another, regardless, the RTP I calculate is in fact my RTP for that session. Since I first posted, I have not been selective about which scores I keep track of. If I play a RTG freeroll tourney, I am keeping track of it. These sessions are consecutive, were played at random times, and I included every session I played. Surely the RTP would start to balance out, since I would have highs and lows. Again, as worthless as this data is, it is all I, as a person, experience. Whether the games actual RTP is 98% or 125% for that matter, if all I ever get for a RTP is 150%, then that is what it is to me. It really is a measure of how lucky I am. Maybe instead of calling it RTP, I will call it my own "personal percent luck" or PPL. Who knows, maybe I am on to something.:nod:

The only reason I started keeping track was that it is so easy to do. I can't be bothered keeping track of each spin, how much I lost each spin, how much I won each spin, and so on as found during normal play. The RTG tourneys make it easy, that's all.
 
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binshakindown

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CO
For the sake of being fair and complete,

I thought I would post my last set of my PPL (personal percentage of luck). Again this is every set I have played since I last posted. The $20k's is one RTG and the others are another. After this post, the thread can die. lol

1581/2000 = 79%
8232/20000 = 41%
2800/5000 = 56%
12860/5000 = 257%
10690/20000 = 53%
 
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