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Roulette- why you can't ever constantly win.

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by mbcobretti, Dec 20, 2006.

    Dec 20, 2006
  1. mbcobretti

    mbcobretti Banned User

    Occupation:
    webmaster
    Location:
    Dakota
    OK, I've been looking at playing roulette for a couple of days, and I think this example will show how you cannot ever make a constant profit playing this game.

    Say you wait and watch ten spins and wait for 10 numbers to come in- now you bet on every number that has not came in so far- may seem a good strategy cos surely the same number cannot come in more than twice in another 5 goes? Wrong, the same number has every chance once the betting comences- I played on a practise table and the number 7 came in 3 times within 10 goes, so maybe go for betting on the same number. Wrong, because you may then get 20 completely different numbers in a row and the first system would have worked.

    The above point is a very simple system but highlights a very important point, it is imposible to know what number or colour is going to come in- even if you try and follow a much more complicated and thought out system, they will always fail because a roulette table is never going to play the same as it did in the last 10 goes.

    If anyone can actually claim to win constantly at roulette, I'd love to hear from them?

    Of course, with all successful systems, they provide profit over a given time- you can go days with a losing streak, but good systems pull thorugh and show profit at the end of the month. So, can anyone claim to use a successful system for roulette?

    I think perhaps the only system that may provide some profit is backing red if red came in last. I know that there is no memory on a roulette table, but one thing that seems to happen a lot is you see 'streaks' of the same colour. There is a 50/50 chance of each colour and say after 1,000 goes, the actual number of reds and blacks will be roughly the same down to stats, but they will not be in a constant order of red - black - red - black - red - black and so on- that is too perfect in my opinion. Yet, this can't be practised on online tables cos they are computerised anyway, the number or colour is already predicted before it even comes in.

    I'd like to try the system but I reckon you'd need at least 100 worth of goes at level stakes to see if any constant profit could be made.

    Anyone with any thoughts or experience are welcome to post- i'm interested in what people think!

    P.S, I'm gonna record 100 worth of goes on a online site anyway just to se what happens, but it would be best doing it in a proper casino.
     
  2. Dec 20, 2006
  3. tencardcharlie

    tencardcharlie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Bureaucrat
    Location:
    The playboy mansion.
    What kind of force do you think it is that make the ball become attracted towards certain colours on the table?

    I can tell you with much higher accuracy that it doesn't work, without making one single spin.
     
  4. Dec 20, 2006
  5. aka23

    aka23 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Technical
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    The roulette wheel does not have a memory. Future outcomes do not depend on previous results (in a fair game). The house edge is constant for all spins.
     
    3 people like this.
  6. Dec 20, 2006
  7. Ronin

    Ronin Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Coder
    Location:
    Belgium
    Very correct, this also means there is no such system to play roullete.

    Yet you can "constantly" win with roulette, in fact the chance of winning as much as "a" jackpot with slots is about the same.

    Example:
    To keep it easy, we shall take out the house edge by removing the green zero.
    I bet $1 on RED, I have a 1/2 or 50% chance that it comes up, ergo there are 18 red spots and 18 black spots on a roulette wheel.

    Now we have to keep in mind what Aka23 said
    So the next spin, the chance that RED will come up is also 1/2 or 50%.
    This means that the chance for RED to comeup multiple consecutive times is
    1/2*1/2*1/2 ......

    To put it all together, we had $1 dollar on RED, and now we like to know what chance we have to get 10 consecutive hits on RED and also what our wins are, knowing that RED pays out 1 to 1 (=2 for 1):

    1/2*1/2 *1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/2^10 = 1/1024
    $2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024

    We can conclude that, without the houseedge, you have a 1/1024 chance
    to win $1024 by betting $1 of your own bankroll (leave the winnings on the table after a win, to play with the house's money!).

    If you continue the series the odds of winning a big amount (slot jackpot size) with roulette are often better then those of winning the "super dooper million dollar progressive" slot.

    Hope this clarifies it a bit.

    Greetz

    Ronin
     
  8. Dec 21, 2006
  9. Nifty29

    Nifty29 Dormant account

    Occupation:
    PAID CASINO SHILL
    Location:
    Turn right, then right. then right again
    My system for constant winning at Roulette is to only play tables that pay 37-1 for single numbers.

    Dont get much play these days :cool:
     
  10. Dec 21, 2006
  11. ddice

    ddice Dormant account

    Occupation:
    housewife
    Location:
    texas
    Why is there even a single reply to this?
     
  12. Dec 21, 2006
  13. Jarome

    Jarome Dormant account

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    I think I'm on earth
    You need to understand human behavior to ask this question. In a perfect world the only reply would be that of aka32 - short, simple and accurate.
    But we are not in a perfect world (which is infect a perfect world to live in - flaws should be embraced) which means the OP would not understand aka32's short answer. hence the LONG reply by Ronin. but wait..... This is not really the reason why Ronin wrote the post - It is because the human nature is in search of fame... constantly. Being the "smartest" in a post can bring quite the fame.
    As you can see the answer to your question could've been answered shortly like aka32 but my humane nature is longing for fame (and of course fortune) - I thank you for taking your time to read. Now GLORIFY me!
     
    2 people like this.
  14. Dec 21, 2006
  15. Ronin

    Ronin Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Coder
    Location:
    Belgium

    Wow Jarome.. you're definitly the smartest in this post.

    hat off !

    :thumbsup:
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. Dec 21, 2006
  17. KasinoKing

    KasinoKing WebMeister & Slotaholic.. CAG MM PABnonaccred webmeister

    Occupation:
    House-Husband and Casino Advisor
    Location:
    Bexhill on sea, England
    To answer the original question: Quit when you're ahead!

    No matter what system you use, if you play it long enough you will lose.
    So just stop when you're ahead, come back the next day, use a different system & quit ahead again!
    Hey-presto - consistent winnings!

    Before anyone asks - no I don't do this myself.
    But I am going to when all the easy bonus money runs out... :p
     
  18. Dec 22, 2006
  19. gfkostas

    gfkostas Ex-Bonus Whore

    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    UK
    But if red has come 20 times in a row isn't it more likely that black will be coming up shortly at least once? since rarely do we ever see a consecutive color for more than 10 times. Sure the ball has no memory but mathematics dictate the outcome and mathematics say that red can't come all the time especially when its been 10+ in a row. I naively believe that a roulette with no bet limits can be beaten.
     
  20. Dec 22, 2006
  21. fathead

    fathead Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    USA
    If red has already shown 20 times in a row, the odds are about 1 to 1 that that red will show the next spin.

    Now if you were to state "Starting the next spin, red will show 21 times in a row", then yes this is extremely unlikely to happen. After the 20 streak is already over, though, 21 is not that unlikely, about 1 to 1.

    You are correct that if there were no table limit and you had unlimited bankroll, roulette would be beatable. Table limits are there for a reason. Also, not everyone has a billionaire bankroll.
     
  22. Dec 22, 2006
  23. Reef

    Reef Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    USA
    but you do not bet on how many times it will come red or black consecutively. You are only betting on 1 spin and the table has no memory of past results. Each spin is an independent event.

    cliffnotes: due to house advantage, roulette is unbeatable in the longrun.
     
  24. Dec 22, 2006
  25. tencardcharlie

    tencardcharlie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Bureaucrat
    Location:
    The playboy mansion.
    ...and you are a bonus player :eek2: This frightens me. It shows how common those kind of myths are.

    Nothing should surprise me anymore. I just wonder when we will se this:

    Come on you guys :)
     
  26. Dec 22, 2006
  27. Swede

    Swede Hell is only a word PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    Auctioneer
    Location:
    Anaon
    :lolup: :lolup:

    I assume you're not a Martingaler either, Charlie? :D
     
  28. Dec 22, 2006
  29. tencardcharlie

    tencardcharlie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Bureaucrat
    Location:
    The playboy mansion.
    Thats a correct observation. Although I'd probably be a sucker and buy Grandmaster's system if he ever invents one - just to be on the safe side.
     
  30. Dec 22, 2006
  31. Swede

    Swede Hell is only a word PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    Auctioneer
    Location:
    Anaon
    Meh, you can have my system for free:

    1) stumble dead drunk into any casino of choice
    2) place a whole heep of chips on 36(although you meant to play 30)
    3) watch that silly little ball bumper back and forth and land on 36
    4) grab that s**tload of munnies with both hands and have someone lead you to the cashier's cage
    5) find a cab & go home for god's sake
    6) rinse and repeat

    Admittedly, this system is far from perfected but from tests(sample size:1) derived so far it seems to be working just fine.
     
  32. Dec 22, 2006
  33. tencardcharlie

    tencardcharlie Dormant account

    Occupation:
    Bureaucrat
    Location:
    The playboy mansion.
    Thank you but free betting systems never work. I immediately found a flaw in yours:

    That is totally unrealistic. Everyone knows that whenever you get drunk in vegas, you'll end up married. So there goes half your earnings... Therefore it can be mathematically shown, that unless you're really hideous, your expected value will be negative.
     
  34. Dec 22, 2006
  35. WAYLANDER

    WAYLANDER Experienced Member webmeister

    Occupation:
    Garden buildings installer S/E / Poker
    Location:
    uk
    :lolup:

    Too funny!

    WAYLANDER
     
  36. Dec 22, 2006
  37. Slotster!

    Slotster! I predict a riot. CAG

    Occupation:
    al Hazard
    Location:
    Location, Location!
    No casino game can ever be 'beaten', else they wouldn't be in the casino :D

    Roulette is a great fun game when there's a few of you piled round the table, suitably lubricated with your favourite tipple!

    I think that's why I like the slots so much online... They're a very solitary pastime, whereas the colourful glitzy tables are great for a laugh.
     
  38. Dec 22, 2006
  39. Swede

    Swede Hell is only a word PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    Auctioneer
    Location:
    Anaon
    [​IMG]

    I should be on the safe side then. Be honest guys, am I +EV here?
     

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