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Roulette: can someone help me analyse this?

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by lojo, Oct 8, 2007.

    Oct 8, 2007
  1. lojo

    lojo Banned User - repetitive violations of <a href="ht

    Occupation:
    Tradesman
    Location:
    USA
    Total bet $500
    The second column and second twelve have $70 on them
    The 'box of 4s' $40
    the double bets $20
    each of the 12 numbers has 10

    So payouts are:

    13 - 930
    14 - 1860
    15 - 930
    16 - 1650
    17 - 3660
    18 - 1650
    19 - 930
    20 - 1860
    21 - 930
    22 - 570
    23 - 780
    24 - 570
    2,5,8,11,26,29,32,35 - 210
    all others - 0

    I was very lucky on this simulation (starting bankroll $1000, same configuration with much smaller wagers) and only a couple of variations, i.e. covered all black in second column and rode black for 70.27% coverage)

    In hundereds and thousands of simulations I haven't been able to determine optimum flat bet size as a percentage of starting bankroll... as in - I am willing to risk ruin, but will stop at a 20% profit -can this be determined?

    If not, I would be happy to know how to figure my over all odds on this scheme.

    I can roughly imagine how to construct the math, but am not wrapping my head around it.

    As far as average ruin vs 120% I'm doing better than 1/5 overall (the only notes I've kept) but if I had a way to construct a model of the odds of some sort maybe it would show it isn't a good idea to go below (arbitrary) 50-70%

    I'll bump this now and then if I don't get any help soon:eek2: it's a long term curiousity of mine. It feels like high variance roulette:D

    Am I overcomplicating it? Is it as simple as I have twent numbers that pay an average of xtimes bet... or do I need to look at each one as a ratio of my entire bet - the return - the odds of hitting it... then meld them somehow to determine :what:
     
  2. Oct 8, 2007
  3. Swede

    Swede Hell is only a word PABnonaccred PABaccred

    Occupation:
    Auctioneer
    Location:
    Anaon
    You must register/login in order to see the link. of a wholelottaodds.com ?
     
    1 person likes this.

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