RNG,CHAOS,HOTand COLD ??????????

katodog

Registered
Joined
Nov 2, 2006
Location
Rochester,NY
Ok, I want to discuss something. I see and hear a lot about slots being "hot", "cold" , "streaky" etc.....Let's assume for moment that slots online are not manipulated in anyway like changing payout percentage or "turning off the switch". Then why is it that the casinos I play at all do the same thing time and time again........long spells of no bigs wins on many of the games for a month or more at a time. Then when you are just beyond frustration then you see a large amount of big wins for a certain period of time. After that things cool off and the site gets tight again. This happens all the time it seems. But why?

Is this truly random numbers at work or is it better compared to, lets say, the weather,lets compare it to the weather in the Northeast US where there is a big variety of weather in a year. You may see several weeks of mainly dry "boring" weather, then you will get a streak of "stormy" weather where you will see several storms over a couple weeks or a month and then it gets quiet again.I know this is badly explained but it is the best analogy I can think of.

But the way these "streaks" all go the same way almost everytime makes me believe there is some manipulating from the casinos.

What does everyone think?:confused:
 

marcsudbury

Full Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2010
Location
sudbury ontario
well i look at it like a slot machine at a land based casino, if the pay ratio is set at 97% sometimes the machine goes "cold" and is paying at a 80% ratio. eventually it has to get back to 97% so it goes off and pays like crazy. i use to play a lsotlike that at my locaol casino. this one machine would pay for a week then die for 3 weeks, but when you saw it hit once you knew it was time, so play it hard make a ton of cash.
 

Jasminebed

Game old gal
Joined
Mar 13, 2008
Location
Ontario
You will find a lot of good reading here
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Almost all online gaming applications use Pseudo RNGs, as do land-based machines. Rather than truly random events, they are a serious of mathematical formulas that generate numbers that mimic random behaviour. Since the "seed", or the x variable is usually tied to a clock that runs in nanoseconds, the user (gamer) has no real control over what end result is generated by this seed. Factors like internet lag affect just what seed number is used, and therefore the spin generated or the cards displayed.

It is the nature of the human mind to try to impose order on chaos, and the seeking of patterns is hardwired into us.

My pc tower is down, I had some good stuff bookmarked; I'll try to find some other good links to post, and I think this is a great thread for discussion.
 

darkpixie

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 25, 2006
Location
Vancouver
I have a theory about how online casinos function...
And yes Random is a misnomer, because at the end of the day, if a casino is set to pay out 97% there can be absolutely nothing random about it.
For slots for instance. I believe they are all tied to that 97% and that across the board the slots won't pay until that 3% is absorbed (it would be a very poor business model if it paid out that 3% before it was earned!!). So while you may hit a few features here and there, if the casino has not absorbed that 3% for its month or whatever, then you can bet that your win will not exceed the expense to get there. This is why I believe that at certain times of the month things can be dry as a bone or hoping wild. I have even experienced one session that the machines appeared to go through a balancing act at a certain time of the day. The machines were tight as heck, then the casino slowed down to a turtles pace and was unusable for about 5 minutes, and then when I managed to get back on the machines were paying out like crazy! Seemed a bit too obvious to be a coincidence to me....

Again this is all speculation and theory on my part...
 

slotjunkie

Dormant account
Joined
Nov 4, 2009
Location
Washington State
well i look at it like a slot machine at a land based casino, if the pay ratio is set at 97% sometimes the machine goes "cold" and is paying at a 80% ratio. eventually it has to get back to 97% so it goes off and pays like crazy. i use to play a lsotlike that at my locaol casino. this one machine would pay for a week then die for 3 weeks, but when you saw it hit once you knew it was time, so play it hard make a ton of cash.

One machine going cold is way different from the whole casino (all games) going cold! There is a switch!
 

Mavin1

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 19, 2009
Location
Arizona
Very interesting thread. I have noticed this with MG and am prepared to weather the dry spells because I have been lucky to be playing when the monsoon hits. I get so freaked at how after playing off and on with little to nothing happening then all of a sudden can't miss on nearly any game I play. I could skip around to several different ones and walk away ahead.

But I have yet to hit the seasons with other sites, such as RTG and Rival. Seems they are in the 10 year drought for some of us.
 

darkpixie

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 25, 2006
Location
Vancouver
I don't think its a manual switch anyone controls, I believe it to be a computer generated safety switch. If a casino doesn't have that it opens itself up to paying out more than it can pay out... know what I mean?
 

darkpixie

Dormant account
Joined
Mar 25, 2006
Location
Vancouver
@Mavin1
This is why I only play MG, sure if I just want to play to enjoy myself I will throw a couple bucks at RTG, but my cashout rate with RTG is 0% Compared to nearly $20k over the years at MG...
I guess it could be said that BECAUSE RTG casinos can manually manipulate the payouts is exactly why you see so many go down in flames. With MG you know the software is handling the money management :)
 
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