question regarding Video Poker Jack Or Better (9/6)

oyw7862

Quit Gambling
Joined
Jan 26, 2007
Location
AU
Hi All:
I am currently playing VP JoB.
As I am lazy so and not good at perfect play(80% correct:eek2:), but I do want to hit a RF. It has been 3 months I did not hit one(daily 2k+ hands) on this game(JOB).

I have been sitting for about 20 hours and watching(-700$ now). Not even one close to hit.

So I guess that maybe using auto-play and MG stradgy will make game less hit.

can some one tell me that should I swith to the manual play and reference the stradgy from wizard of odds?

thanks

attached my play sessions till now, I have prepared 3 RF as bankroll.
 

oyw7862

Quit Gambling
Joined
Jan 26, 2007
Location
AU
27000 hands and down 1000$ @1.25 per hand

Not so good looks like.

So Thanks grand master, how big % can I get for 1 RF in 40K hands ?

is it bigger than 50%?
 

niklas

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Location
Sweden
27000 hands and down 1000$ @1.25 per hand

Not so good looks like.

So Thanks grand master, how big % can I get for 1 RF in 40K hands ?

is it bigger than 50%?

To determine this, we take the chance of NOT hitting an RF, i.e. 39,999 / 40,000, and raise to the power of 40,000:

(39 999 / 40 000)^40 000 = 0.367874843

The chance of hitting an RF in 40k hands is then 1 - 0.367874843 or approximately 63.2%.

With the same method we find that you already had a ~53% chance of hitting one within your 27k hands. Since the gambler's fallacy isn't true, this means that you now only have a ~31.5% chance of hitting it within the 13k hands you have left before having played a total of 40k.

(The real chance is actually 0.00002476, or 1 in ~40388, but we'll keep it simple. We'll also ignore that no one will play the true optimal strategy using a strategy table, as those are always more or less simplified.)
 

james01

Dormant account
Joined
May 13, 2007
Location
Germany
But if you're playing only to get a royal flush, as opposed to playing standard strategy (which you would use in order to win as frequently as possible), you might raise your chances of getting that royal flush, but lose more money at the same time.
 

GaryWatson

Dormant account
Joined
Jun 15, 2007
Location
Europe
I find it hard to imagine going for the odds in a video poker game. The 40,000/1 is not a true reflection of card odds. The game is more of a slots style game. Maybe that is why it is set at 40,000/1, but chasing the r/f for a small % seems a bad strategy right away.
 

niklas

Dormant account
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Location
Sweden
But if you're playing only to get a royal flush, as opposed to playing standard strategy (which you would use in order to win as frequently as possible), you might raise your chances of getting that royal flush, but lose more money at the same time.
Certainly true. I've also seen strategies to lower variance at the cost of a slightly higher house edge. I imagine going against optimal strategy to raise your chance of an RF will raise the house edge considerably.

Edit: Even if you don't go to the extremes of throwing away a 3OAK to keep one ace.
 

james01

Dormant account
Joined
May 13, 2007
Location
Germany
Like I said, you'd lose more money, but if all you care about is hitting that royal flush, you should be able to increase the odds by playing every hand to win the royal flush rather than for the best chance of winning anything.

You'd be dumping regular flushes and straights and every pair/3-of-a-kind, so you'd lose almost every hand.

Terrible strategy, but might get you the royal flush.
 

vinylweatherman

You type well loads
Joined
Oct 14, 2004
Location
United Kingdom
I generally play the 4-UP version, so it takes only a quarter the time to get through 40,000 hands. This is only an average though, the variance is very high. Players can go for longer than this and never see the Royal.


It is a bit like going to catch a bus into town. Someone tells you it's a regular 15 minute service, so you don't bother looking up the times, you just go to the stop and wait...... and wait........

....and wait....

You seem to find that 15 minutes was just an average, but sometimes it can be ages because the buses are so inefficiently run....


and I am sure those who have experienced waiting for a bus know what happens after you have waited 4x as long as you should for the bus;)
 

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oyw7862

Quit Gambling
Joined
Jan 26, 2007
Location
AU
that was beautiful. did you just get it, wait I seen it on winner screen longtime agao.:lolup:
 

SlotsWizard

Dormant account
Joined
May 11, 2006
Location
North of Antarctica
If you disabled MG's autohold and used the Wizard's strategy instead, you would still have gotten the same results since his optimal strategy represents perfect play. I would recommend keeping autohold on to avoid errors.

However, if your goal is to get that Royal Flush, you can change your strategy to give up a little bit of long-term return in exchange for theoretically more frequent Royal Flushes. The following strategy will accomplish this (look up each type of play that exists in the hand, and go with the one closest to the top of the list):

  1. Royal Flush
  2. Straight Flush
  3. Four to a Royal Flush
  4. Four of a Kind
  5. Full House
  6. Flush
  7. Three of a Kind
  8. Straight
  9. Four to a Straight Flush
  10. Two Pair
  11. Three to a Royal Flush
  12. Pair of J,Q,K,A
  13. Four to a Flush
  14. Unsuited TJQK
  15. Pair of 2-10
  16. Unsuited 2345, 3456, 4567, 5678, 6789, 789T, 89TJ, 9TJQ
  17. Suited 9TJ, 9JQ
  18. Suited JQ
  19. Suited 8JQ, 9JK, 9QK
  20. Suited JK, QK
  21. Suited 89J, 8TJ, 9TQ
  22. Suited JA, QA, KA
  23. Suited 345, 456, 567, 678, 789, 89T
  24. Unsuited JQKA
  25. Unsuited 9JQK, TJQA, TJKA, TQKA
  26. Suited TJ
  27. Suited A23, A24, A25, A34, A35, A45, 78J, 79J, 7TJ, 89Q, 8TQ, 9TK
  28. Unsuited JQK
  29. Suited TQ
  30. Suited 234, 235, 245, 346, 356, 457, 467, 568, 578, 679, 689, 78T, 79T
  31. Suited TK, TA
  32. Unsuited JQ, JK, QK
  33. Unsuited JA, QA, KA
  34. Jack, Queen, King or Ace
  35. Suited 236, 246, 256, 347, 357, 367, 458, 468, 478, 569, 579, 589, 67T, 68T, 69T
  36. Discard everything

T = Ten
J = Jack
Q = Queen
K = King
A = Ace

To use the strategy you would need to disable autohold and play the hands manually. If you follow it perfectly, the long-term return of the game is reduced from 99.54% to 99.42%, but the frequency of Royal Flushes increases from once every 40,390 hands to once every 32,761 hands (about 19% more frequently). Keep in mind that this is still an average. It's not unusual to go several cycles without getting one. Good luck.
 

oyw7862

Quit Gambling
Joined
Jan 26, 2007
Location
AU
40K done, todaY IS not the day.
Fed up. down 1270$ consider a perfect play - RF.

Interesting thing on the right 40K I got this, break a flash and got a straight.

THanks every one, this consider as a 40 hours live report for an addict
 

Jufo

Three-toed sloth
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Location
Finland
You could try no-house edge Jacks or Better. The game returns 100.00%, Royal pays higher (976x) and by modifying strategy you get it 10% more often (and still retain 100.00% payout).

There is no autoplay though.
 

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