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question on best game to clear bonus

Discussion in 'Online Casinos' started by Granny_Mae, Dec 19, 2004.

    Dec 19, 2004
  1. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    hi all,

    forgive my newbie question. i have searched and searched and can't find a definitive answer. perhaps there is a thread that covers this?

    here is my question:

    i have a loyalty bonus offer from a viper room.

    it is 100% match on $400, NO BLACKJACK or JoB VP allowed.

    the WR is 10X

    what is the best game(s) for me to clear this bonus using autoplay? ($8,000 playthru required)

    my research has shown me that paigow HA is too high without the ability to bank.

    it also shows me that the variance on bonus poker, double bonus and double double are way too high for me to be comfortable.

    i am thinking of using 10's or better to have low variance, but also thinking that aces and faces may be an alternative (higher variance than 10's or better, but a better shot at a net win)

    any suggestions? any threads that cover this? what game would you play?

    thanks for the help.
  2. Dec 19, 2004
  3. Slotster!

    Slotster! I predict a riot. CAG

    al Hazard
    Location, Location!
    Whack it in a slot machine, cross your fingers - and hope for the best! :thumbsup:
  4. Dec 19, 2004
  5. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    ahhh, but that is exactly what i do not want to do. this MG casino recently added the BJ restriction, and i would pass on the offer if i could not find a viable alternative.

    since slots are not an option, i guess i am trying to decide between pai-gow and VP, but since JoB is not allowed either, i need to figure out which VP game is best.

    slots sure sound fun, but Mr. Granny would not be happy with this decison.

  6. Dec 19, 2004
  7. Vesuvio

    Vesuvio Dormant account

    Have a look at this:

    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    I'd probably pick Aces & Faces rather than Deuces Wild 4 or 10-handed (lower variance, I think), but either way there's still a very high chance of losing your deposit on an offer like that :(
  8. Dec 19, 2004
  9. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    i had dug thru the wizards VP section, but had not clicked on the microgaming analysis.

    thanks for the link.

    now that i see the MG returns for VP all lined up, i can see that aces and faces looks to be the choice, except i have no clue what the variance is on these games.

    if the variance is much higher on aces and faces than 10's or better, i may stick with the 10's or better. however, if the variance on the VP games is much higher than paigow, then i may be better off giving up some HA and going with paigow.

    can you (or anyone) tell me how to figure variance on VP games? the wizard has some variance charts, but not for these 2 games.


  10. Dec 19, 2004
  11. big_mac

    big_mac Experienced Member

    I can't help you with the variance question, but I have a crappy Java App that will give you some idea of the chance of making a profit.

    It's only for JoB at the moment, but I can add other forms of VP over the next few days.

    You must register/login in order to see the link.

    The figures I get for A&F are :-

    5 coins 25c:
    average = +348, lost money 17.5%, busted 0.5%
    10th percentile = -85, 90th percentile = 1107

    1 coin 25c:
    average = +220, lost money 2%, busted 0%
    10th percentile = +85, 90th percentile = +362
  12. Dec 19, 2004
  13. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    wow, thanks a bunch!

    would it be pushy if i asked that the next one you do is MG 10s or better?

    anything you go with next would be appreciated tho.

  14. Dec 19, 2004
  15. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    btw, just curious. what value are you using for the royal at one coin? MG only pays 250 for one coin, and i would think that greatly affects these numbers.

    if i have a theoretical 0% chance of ruin with 250 plugged as the royal value, this is certainly the way to go. if you used 800, then this would change things.

    thanks for the clarification when you get a chance.

  16. Dec 19, 2004
  17. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account

    Hi Granny,

    Haven't seen you at RGP for awhile. I heard you had given up gambling and taken up knitting.

    Anyway, I think Ace & Faces and Tens or better at Microgaming are pretty close. Variance on Tens is 19-something and on Aces-Faces it's 20-something. Their longterm expectancy is not much different either, with Aces-Faces being just a tad better.

    But Granny, variance is your friend. Play their Deuces Wild Multi with high variance and swing for the fence. Don't wear a skirt.

    Good luck Granny. :D
  18. Dec 19, 2004
  19. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    heya paul!

    i've stopped reading rgp because i don't have enough spam knives to cut through the pork there. it has become a mess.


    i still am very active at 2+2 in the internet forum, but have always read what's going on here at meister. i just never felt the need to post until today.

    ok, those variance numbers are huge. if i am not mistaken, the variance numbers for JoB is six something. i would have thought that 10's or better would be in that area.

    i also know that the pay table for the deuces multi-hand is superior to the single game for the top pays, but again was deterred by the variance.


    you make a good point though. i should stick to deuces multi and just take the shot.
    as far as the skirt, i'll have you know i only wear nightgowns, and only change them every other full moon.

  20. Dec 19, 2004
  21. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account

    Granny, regarding the 19-something, I don't even know what it means. However, if you run the Win Poker software, that's what it shows and also it shows Jacks-or-better at 19-something. In other words, the variance is right there with JoB. Obviously it would be a touch lower than JoB.

    Good luck.
  22. Dec 19, 2004
  23. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    awesome, thanks paul!

    i was operating under a flawed variance number and this has cleared up a lot for me.

    thx again & good to see you here.

  24. Dec 19, 2004
  25. big_mac

    big_mac Experienced Member

    In that test-run, I used 200 for one-coin RF. Running it at 250 gave me an average gain of $230 (up from $220).

    I can't update the Applet until after I get back home, so that will be a couple of days yet.
    As it uses randomly generated sessions, this tool is definitely not completely accurate (and may be buggy). It's not that there is a 0% chance of run, but only that it didn't happen in a sample of 10,000 sessions.

    Tens or Better:
    1 coin
    average +$217
    lost money 0.78% and busted 0.0%
    10th percentile = +$97.0
    90th percentile = +$343

    5 coins
    average +$335
    lost money 15% and busted 0.05%
    10th percentile = -$47.5
    90th percentile = +$1110.0
  26. Dec 20, 2004
  27. rJ_

    rJ_ Dormant account


    3cardpoker at MG has an element of risk of 2.01%. Losing $20 per 1000 wagered and 8000 in WR you will lose $160. Total profit of $240 on your bonus.

    Not sure about the variance. There is no autoplay, but it is a very fast game. Just raise on Q64 or better.

    Last edited: Dec 20, 2004
  28. Dec 20, 2004
  29. Granny_Mae

    Granny_Mae Banned User - aol Complainer

    There is no autoplay

    this is why i did not consider 3-card poker.

    what size bets are you suggesting?

    btw, is this THE rJ?

  30. Dec 20, 2004
  31. rJ_

    rJ_ Dormant account

    It is rJ_. Some bastard beat me to rJ, but yes it is me. I am everywhere.

    I was thinking small bets to reduce the variance. I wasnt thinking autoplay when i first wrote the reply.

  32. Dec 20, 2004
  33. paul1

    paul1 Dormant account

    I still don't understand what the "element of risk" is that you mention. But the House vig is larger than 2.01 on that game. I do, however, like the game. I have played it for wagering requirements before, in the right spot. But I'd rather play some of the video poker games that Granny mentioned.

    imho, if it's variance you're worried about, I'd quit playing everything above Q64 in 3-Card Poker. At worst, maybe something like QJ2. But I think you could cut the variance by playing King and better, even though it is proper to play Q65 in the long run. (supposedly)

    Either way, I don't think Granny cares about a few cents here or there. I hear she just throws away her money anyway at all-male strip-clubs. Well, that and bingo, of course. :rolleyes:
  34. Dec 20, 2004
  35. chuchu59

    chuchu59 gambling addict CAG PABnonaccred

    MG paigow poker is streaky and according to my experience,you either win,lose or push several in a row. If they accept this as WR,you can bet on this game with varying bet sizes,minimising bets when you lose and once you win a hand,increase your bets. I understand that this seems quite risky but at the end,the number of pushes will enable you to reach the WRs quite easily. Just my honest opinion.
  36. Dec 20, 2004
  37. rJ_

    rJ_ Dormant account

    As I understand it (as little as that means) element of risk takes into account events that dont cost you any house edge, but fulfill wager requirements. I got the 2.01 element of risk from wizard of odds.

    The wizards definition is:

    Element of Risk

    The ratio of the expected player loss to the total amount bet. This is a good measure of comparing the value of one bet against another. For games in which there is no raising the element of risk will be the same as the house edge. However for games in which the player may increase his bet the element of risk will be lower. For example in Caribbean Stud Poker the house edge is 5.22%. However the average amount bet per hand is 2.0445 times the initial bet, so the element of risk would be 0.0522/2.0445 = 2.55%.

    Last edited: Dec 20, 2004
  38. Dec 20, 2004
  39. hahacasino

    hahacasino Banned User - too annoying

    enjoy life
    Wonder how casino operators feel about this thread?

    tough business my man!

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