question on best game to clear bonus

[Granny_Mae]

hi all,

forgive my newbie question. i have searched and searched and can't find a definitive answer. perhaps there is a thread that covers this?

here is my question:

i have a loyalty bonus offer from a viper room.

it is 100% match on $400, NO BLACKJACK or JoB VP allowed.

the WR is 10X

what is the best game(s) for me to clear this bonus using autoplay? ($8,000 playthru required)

my research has shown me that paigow HA is too high without the ability to bank.

it also shows me that the variance on bonus poker, double bonus and double double are way too high for me to be comfortable.

i am thinking of using 10's or better to have low variance, but also thinking that aces and faces may be an alternative (higher variance than 10's or better, but a better shot at a net win)

any suggestions? any threads that cover this? what game would you play?

thanks for the help.

 

[Slotster!]

Whack it in a slot machine, cross your fingers - and hope for the best!

 

[Granny_Mae]

Whack it in a slot machine, cross your fingers - and hope for the best!

ahhh, but that is exactly what i do not want to do. this MG casino recently added the BJ restriction, and i would pass on the offer if i could not find a viable alternative.

since slots are not an option, i guess i am trying to decide between pai-gow and VP, but since JoB is not allowed either, i need to figure out which VP game is best.

slots sure sound fun, but Mr. Granny would not be happy with this decison.

 

[Vesuvio]

Have a look at this:

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I'd probably pick Aces & Faces rather than Deuces Wild 4 or 10-handed (lower variance, I think), but either way there's still a very high chance of losing your deposit on an offer like that

 

[Granny_Mae]

Have a look at this:

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I'd probably pick Aces & Faces rather than Deuces Wild 4 or 10-handed (lower variance, I think), but either way there's still a very high chance of losing your deposit on an offer like that

i had dug thru the wizards VP section, but had not clicked on the microgaming analysis.

thanks for the link.

now that i see the MG returns for VP all lined up, i can see that aces and faces looks to be the choice, except i have no clue what the variance is on these games.

if the variance is much higher on aces and faces than 10's or better, i may stick with the 10's or better. however, if the variance on the VP games is much higher than paigow, then i may be better off giving up some HA and going with paigow.

can you (or anyone) tell me how to figure variance on VP games? the wizard has some variance charts, but not for these 2 games.

tyvm

 

[big_mac]

I can't help you with the variance question, but I have a crappy Java App that will give you some idea of the chance of making a profit.

It's only for JoB at the moment, but I can add other forms of VP over the next few days.

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The figures I get for A&F are :-

5 coins 25c:
average = +348, lost money 17.5%, busted 0.5%
10th percentile = -85, 90th percentile = 1107

1 coin 25c:
average = +220, lost money 2%, busted 0%
10th percentile = +85, 90th percentile = +362

 

[Granny_Mae]

wow, thanks a bunch!

would it be pushy if i asked that the next one you do is MG 10s or better?

anything you go with next would be appreciated tho.

 

[Granny_Mae]

1 coin 25c:
average = +220, lost money 2%, busted 0%
10th percentile = +85, 90th percentile = +362

btw, just curious. what value are you using for the royal at one coin? MG only pays 250 for one coin, and i would think that greatly affects these numbers.

if i have a theoretical 0% chance of ruin with 250 plugged as the royal value, this is certainly the way to go. if you used 800, then this would change things.

thanks for the clarification when you get a chance.

 

[paul1]

Hi Granny,

Haven't seen you at RGP for awhile. I heard you had given up gambling and taken up knitting.

Anyway, I think Ace & Faces and Tens or better at Microgaming are pretty close. Variance on Tens is 19-something and on Aces-Faces it's 20-something. Their longterm expectancy is not much different either, with Aces-Faces being just a tad better.

But Granny, variance is your friend. Play their Deuces Wild Multi with high variance and swing for the fence. Don't wear a skirt.

Good luck Granny.

 

[Granny_Mae]

Hi Granny,

Haven't seen you at RGP for awhile. I heard you had given up gambling and taken up knitting.

Anyway, I think Ace & Faces and Tens or better at Microgaming are pretty close. Variance on Tens is 19-something and on Aces-Faces it's 20-something. Their longterm expectancy is not much different either, with Aces-Faces being just a tad better.

But Granny, variance is your friend. Play their Deuces Wild Multi with high variance and swing for the fence. Don't wear a skirt.

Good luck Granny.

heya paul!

i've stopped reading rgp because i don't have enough spam knives to cut through the pork there. it has become a mess.

Link Removed ( Old/Invalid) Link Removed ( Old/Invalid)

i still am very active at 2+2 in the internet forum, but have always read what's going on here at meister. i just never felt the need to post until today.

ok, those variance numbers are huge. if i am not mistaken, the variance numbers for JoB is six something. i would have thought that 10's or better would be in that area.

i also know that the pay table for the deuces multi-hand is superior to the single game for the top pays, but again was deterred by the variance.

*sigh*

you make a good point though. i should stick to deuces multi and just take the shot.
as far as the skirt, i'll have you know i only wear nightgowns, and only change them every other full moon.

Expired Image

 

[paul1]

ok, those variance numbers are huge. if i am not mistaken, the variance numbers for JoB is six something. i would have thought that 10's or better would be in that area.

Granny, regarding the 19-something, I don't even know what it means. However, if you run the Win Poker software, that's what it shows and also it shows Jacks-or-better at 19-something. In other words, the variance is right there with JoB. Obviously it would be a touch lower than JoB.

Good luck.

 

[Granny_Mae]

Granny, regarding the 19-something, I don't even know what it means. However, if you run the Win Poker software, that's what it shows and also it shows Jacks-or-better at 19-something. In other words, the variance is right there with JoB. Obviously it would be a touch lower than JoB.

Good luck.

awesome, thanks paul!

i was operating under a flawed variance number and this has cleared up a lot for me.

thx again & good to see you here.

 

[big_mac]

btw, just curious. what value are you using for the royal at one coin? MG only pays 250 for one coin, and i would think that greatly affects these numbers.

if i have a theoretical 0% chance of ruin with 250 plugged as the royal value, this is certainly the way to go. if you used 800, then this would change things.

thanks for the clarification when you get a chance.

In that test-run, I used 200 for one-coin RF. Running it at 250 gave me an average gain of $230 (up from $220).

I can't update the Applet until after I get back home, so that will be a couple of days yet.
As it uses randomly generated sessions, this tool is definitely not completely accurate (and may be buggy). It's not that there is a 0% chance of run, but only that it didn't happen in a sample of 10,000 sessions.

Tens or Better:
1 coin
average +$217
lost money 0.78% and busted 0.0%
10th percentile = +$97.0
90th percentile = +$343

5 coins
average +$335
lost money 15% and busted 0.05%
10th percentile = -$47.5
90th percentile = +$1110.0

 

[rJ_]

Granny

3cardpoker at MG has an element of risk of 2.01%. Losing $20 per 1000 wagered and 8000 in WR you will lose $160. Total profit of $240 on your bonus.

Not sure about the variance. There is no autoplay, but it is a very fast game. Just raise on Q64 or better.

rJ

 

[Granny_Mae]

There is no autoplay

this is why i did not consider 3-card poker.

what size bets are you suggesting?

btw, is this THE rJ?

 

[rJ_]

It is rJ_. Some bastard beat me to rJ, but yes it is me. I am everywhere.

I was thinking small bets to reduce the variance. I wasnt thinking autoplay when i first wrote the reply.

rJ

 

[paul1]

3cardpoker at MG has an element of risk of 2.01%. Losing $20 per 1000 wagered and 8000 in WR you will lose $160. Total profit of $240 on your bonus.

Not sure about the variance. There is no autoplay, but it is a very fast game. Just raise on Q64 or better.

rJ

I still don't understand what the "element of risk" is that you mention. But the House vig is larger than 2.01 on that game. I do, however, like the game. I have played it for wagering requirements before, in the right spot. But I'd rather play some of the video poker games that Granny mentioned.

imho, if it's variance you're worried about, I'd quit playing everything above Q64 in 3-Card Poker. At worst, maybe something like QJ2. But I think you could cut the variance by playing King and better, even though it is proper to play Q65 in the long run. (supposedly)

Either way, I don't think Granny cares about a few cents here or there. I hear she just throws away her money anyway at all-male strip-clubs. Well, that and bingo, of course.

 

[chuchu59]

hi all,

forgive my newbie question. i have searched and searched and can't find a definitive answer. perhaps there is a thread that covers this?

here is my question:

i have a loyalty bonus offer from a viper room.

it is 100% match on $400, NO BLACKJACK or JoB VP allowed.

the WR is 10X

what is the best game(s) for me to clear this bonus using autoplay? ($8,000 playthru required)

my research has shown me that paigow HA is too high without the ability to bank.

it also shows me that the variance on bonus poker, double bonus and double double are way too high for me to be comfortable.

i am thinking of using 10's or better to have low variance, but also thinking that aces and faces may be an alternative (higher variance than 10's or better, but a better shot at a net win)

any suggestions? any threads that cover this? what game would you play?

thanks for the help.

MG paigow poker is streaky and according to my experience,you either win,lose or push several in a row. If they accept this as WR,you can bet on this game with varying bet sizes,minimising bets when you lose and once you win a hand,increase your bets. I understand that this seems quite risky but at the end,the number of pushes will enable you to reach the WRs quite easily. Just my honest opinion.

 

[rJ_]

I still don't understand what the "element of risk" is that you mention. But the House vig is larger than 2.01 on that game.

As I understand it (as little as that means) element of risk takes into account events that dont cost you any house edge, but fulfill wager requirements. I got the 2.01 element of risk from wizard of odds.

The wizards definition is:


Element of Risk

The ratio of the expected player loss to the total amount bet. This is a good measure of comparing the value of one bet against another. For games in which there is no raising the element of risk will be the same as the house edge. However for games in which the player may increase his bet the element of risk will be lower. For example in Caribbean Stud Poker the house edge is 5.22%. However the average amount bet per hand is 2.0445 times the initial bet, so the element of risk would be 0.0522/2.0445 = 2.55%.

rJ

 

[hahacasino]

Wonder how casino operators feel about this thread?

tough business my man!

 

[KasinoKing]

Wonder how casino operators feel about this thread?

tough business my man!

Well, I think it's all very sad.
People are just looking for the game with the lowest variance (whatever that is!) so they can scrape their way to the WR and run off with as much bonus as possible.
You should try gambling sometime - not only is it much more fun, there's always the chance you may get lucky and come out with more than 100% of the original bonus - I do!
I'm with Slotster - wack it into a few slots and give your heart rate a good work out!

 

[Vesuvio]

Well, I think it's all very sad.
People are just looking for the game with the lowest variance (whatever that is!) so they can scrape their way to the WR and run off with as much bonus as possible.
You should try gambling sometime - not only is it much more fun, there's always the chance you may get lucky and come out with more than 100% of the original bonus - I do!
I'm with Slotster - wack it into a few slots and give your heart rate a good work out!

Yep, high variance, high house edge games are the way to go! They'll make you rich!*

* as long as you own a casino. See the VirtualTed thread (catchy name) for the sad truth of how players do in casinos when they aren't 'sharp' and don't play the right games for the right length of time to the right stakes... But I'm sure they're all happy losers and none of them are compulsive gamblers who've ruined their lives and those of their families, so that's ok

 

[paul1]

Well, I think it's all very sad.
People are just looking for the game with the lowest variance (whatever that is!) so they can scrape their way to the WR and run off with as much bonus as possible.
You should try gambling sometime - not only is it much more fun, there's always the chance you may get lucky and come out with more than 100% of the original bonus - I do!
I'm with Slotster - wack it into a few slots and give your heart rate a good work out!

I agree with Kasino King's philosophy. Variance can be your friend. Swing for the fence. I think it is short-sighted for gamblers to "scrape their way to the WR" as you mentioned.

 

[KasinoKing]

But I'm sure they're all happy losers and none of them are compulsive gamblers who've ruined their lives and those of their families, so that's ok

You make a very good point there.
I can gamble for fun because I'm only using funds that I have won previously (by gambling for fun). If those funds ever ran out I would be very reluctant to invest my hard-earned wages in any form of gambling.
But if any player is using online casino's, with or without bonus, because they NEED the money, I strongly urge them not to. Being a gambling addict like me can be great fun all the time you're winning, but it would become a fricking nightmare if all you did was losing.
Everyone (even me) needs to know their limits - the first limit is never ever gamble with money you can not afford to lose!